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I think we already are downtrodden... from 20p.
With continued geopolitical tensions regularly flaring, gas prices will continue to be volatile.
7% up today.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/12/18/global-supply-chains-face-another-major-hit-as-ships-avoid-suez-canal.html
The good news is we have 2 fantastic assets.
Selva producing with lots of additional reserves to monetise on a field already permitted.
El Romeral with inherent value in the infrastructure - 1 of only 3 connections to the national grid infrastructure in Spain.
Both extremely valuable in their own right with lots of optionality.
Debt free completely in a few months and no warrants.
So let’s not get too downtrodden.
Yep exactly,never on time.
Expected
It's a myth mate.The permits are expected Q1 24 and the drilling starts Q4.If you listen to all MRs interviews hes always been consistent with those timelines
Had a re think and brought half at4.88
4.84 to buy,never seen this low before ,my buy in price was forecast at 5.25.but with ttf at 35 euros that kind of tells me revenue is only jus,t above marks 30 euro price.so that means to self fund the next 8 wells it will take longer than the 52 euro ttf price of two weeks ago.so on that basis I will wait for a lower price,if I'm wrong I can still buy at less than my 5.25 buy price.for clarity where does it say the wells have been put back to late 24,when I thought they were first quarter 24.i can't seem to find that news anywhere,
For 2023 I get (euros) Selva 716k * 2 quarters of production + El Romeral 900k, accounting for exchange rate = £2M revenue this year and going forward £3M pa. From a DCF model where running costs are £1.5M I get £21M total value, around the current market cap. If Tesorillo or additional wells come online then of course there will be additional value created.
4p is an absolute bargain. This is about to pop, and when it does anyone bought in at these levels will surely multi-bag.
Read that update this morning and saw SP off, thought to myself that's the bottom.
Gas bouncing a bit on the Red Sea issues makes this more likely.
The share price is all about PERMIT NEWS. 8 more wells currently seeking permits as soon as those get sanctioned (lots of red tape) the wells can be drilled and accessed into the existing infrastructure. Annual yield would likely be £15M profit, so the Mk cap is equal to a prospective PE of 1. If they get Tesorillo as well you can add another 60p to the share price. Broker notes reiterate at 20p. This is an easy double/triple bagger IMO. I reckon they have 2.5M cash atm, remember earnings were solid from Spain but Italy only kicked in half way.
Bingo yes that's the issue the 1.9mln was in fact 715k eur or whatever it was (Y) my calc was wrong there
just to note this is an underestimation as july was lower production as was october. and I also think that there is a 10% royalities to pay over 10mln scm/year (applied to the whole amount so 1scm over and you pay 10% on the lot) also why I think we didn't note the November production as I suspect it has been throttled down (and we have lower TTF values so not so necessary at the moment) then up to full production again in January.
Yes I added the 0.9m for Spain and used the 700k share of quarterly revenues for Q3.
Hopefully overestimated costs and applied an optimistic P/E ratio…..
Islandgirl - You obviously haven't been keeping up. All the notes have been fully converted now. The impatient have sold out, the patient will soon be rewarded.
I'm at about £7mln annualised revenue based on the Q3 figures. Did you add in Spain? and £4mln isn't quite (1.9mln*4)/1.15= £6.6mln+1mln=£7.6mln revenue. Profit is maybe 75% of that? Not worked out monthly spend / costs of extraction.
so let's use your EBITDA of 12 so we get 91mln MCAP... with 330mln shares SP = 28p.
I think your EBITDA is a bit high! I am still going on the 21p estimate from brokers note. so EBITDA of 9 gives us 21p.
Annualised revenues about 4m
Annualised costs , hopefully no more than 1.5m
EBITDA multiple - total guess at 12
Market cap of around 30m euro…..
So I’m guessing there is still value here - just a pity my average price is above the current SP….
Tried to be sensible in this savage market by avoiding a 'raise' and achieved the same outcome by telling us that.
Just shows how a 'risk off' sentiment destroys value however you go!
Its s slow boat to China this one.Kinda wish i had never hopped on board...so F-ing boring.Ain't nothing going to spike this share price until the CLNs are gone at the end of March.Rampers were the CLN holders btw.
Short
You seem a little obsessed. If you are a shareholder - you can raise a motion to cut his salary. If you arent even a shareholder (and from your prior posts its doubtful) then who the heck are you to comment on what i and the other shareholders here choose to pay our directors!
Merry Christmas
NtD
From he who believed that tripe that came from the 'burning bush'. Ay ?
Wow that easy to say . One share price two no permits as promised . Just taking his wage 5k a week and done nothing even his interviews were bull and he probably paid for them . He actually more or less said should be drilling Q1 2024 no chance lol but he is ok if he was rewarded for performance on share price he would be giving his wage back LIFSTYLE FOR HIM THIS SHARE . Look what other Directors are on to him scandal
Yay! - The Singing Bush is back.
There has been constant selling here from CLN holders and probably more to come?
Thought they were in sticky hands lol
They know FA and P#ssy P#nts have even stopped their ramping