The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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Will be one of Fitzpatricks last interviews as CEO….new man due in soon….and looking forward to what he has to say at the HY once he has got his feet under the table…
The move from London to HK for the primary listing will take time…..my guess is when more than half the shareholdings are registered and traded in HK/SNG….
Heading up in my opinion.
Great interview with Pru today on Sky Business News. Over 400,000 (The Man from Pru) salesman on the ground Huge potential in Asia. Only 4% penetration in China (markets) Plus much more to come From India and Indonesia . Looked and sounded very promising now Hong Kong has opened for Business again. Hopefully first signs of SP recovery????
Jefferies raises price target to 1900.
Seems a bit of a stretch…separately I see SDR has got approval for a new fund venture in China….looking forward to hearing Pru gets control of its Chinese ventures.
Congratulations Alas_Smith, you're timing was excellent! I've held for decades, and I can't remember the SP EVER rising 50% so quickly before. For a relatively large company, it must be quite unusual, but they did start from a surprisingly low base. I guess the SP action is driven largely by Chinese politics, but it's hard to tell these days.
The market seems to have anticipated the ‘normalisation’ of the HK/CN border starting next week…..this should help with 2023 sales but will presumably continue to be a drag…..however with increased connectivity from China to invest in HK vehicles there may be a systemic change an mainland business may become the preferred solution for chinese mainlanders……Pru needs to work out its approach in China - will it increase its stake in the CITIC Pru JVs? That should be preferred to building a new franchise.
The recent 50% gain reflects the oversold nature of the stock, and surely reflects some over optimism, so like AS I expect a pull back soon, but there is still room for gains over 2023 from this position, still 40-50% upside before the share get back to the share issue price in HK which is the HKD/USD value I would use to assess valuation given this is now a $ stock. £ price is affected by a 15-20% fall in £ relative to $, so the old £15 is closer to £18 now…..
January is often a good month for stock markets around the world. I attribute this to bonuses at Christmas being put to work. The flies in the ointment are recession and Russia. From what I can determine is that USA is likely to narrowly avoid recession, but markets will remain sensitive. I don’t buy the doom that the UK will have a deep recession, though I do expect it to be quite prolonged.
The recent change is policy by China has allowed PRU to pick up her skirts, so I am keen to average this holding up once some of the froth in the share price has settled.
The long view is all about China, its continued progress of its peoples in getting better off and needing investment / insurance products and its wider influence on the macro economics of Asia…..
Pru is now an excellent diversification play for UK investors….its fortunes should not depend much on the UK government and UK prospects.
nice to keep an eye on the long view.
happy new year to us all, i hope.
Asian markets have been reacting positively to China changing its approach to Covid and this is benefitting Pru where new business is weighted towards HK and its cross border business.
I am not so interested in the 2022 results in mid March, but will be much more interested in what management has to say about the direction of trading, the effect of implementing IFRS17 which they have not commented on yet and any change in strategy and the new CEOs views.
They have a number of issues to resolve:
Selling down the Jackson stake
Strategy for their JVs in China and India (mainly)
Scaling up in Africa (more territories and in market growth).
Encouraging HK/SNG shareholders to build these listings as I would be disappointed if Pru still has its primary listing in London come 2030.
I expect some limited restructuring of the Group and major investment in online distribution and servicing.
Financially, I hope they will be able to maintain the 12-15% growth rate and grow the dividend similarly.
There is a Jackson chat board 0JKF but has little traffic. I wonder how many pru holders kept or disposed of jxn, I for one increased in it significantly. One downside is withholding tax on dividends and the £/$ is not as favourable as a few weeks ago.
The Jackson holding is not significant to Pru……but i for one dont mind posts here about JNL…where else are longer standing pru owners who now have JNL going to post.
Hi Jatw,
Thank you. You are correct PRU does still retain and interest in Jackson Financial Inc.
From the latest report and accounts :-
"In total proceeds of $376 million have been received from reducing our holding
in Jackson Financial Inc. from 19.7 per cent at the time of the demerger in 2021
to approximately 9.0 per cent at 5 August 2022...."
Always happy to acknowledge when I am wrong. I apologise for misleading readers
" Reckon you will be able to pick up Pru for 9xx and sell for 10xx almost every month until China makes up its mind."
yes.... I have done well from that .....
needs inflation in Asia to fall too, as margins at PRU have suffered over there ....
Their digital investment will pay dividends in terms of cost savings though , with more work done online
If inflation recedes as a result of a short recession everywhere ...then things can begin again within late Q1 and into q2 2023
China needs to move investors off property speculation ..and Asia off crypto speculation ....and move into safer investment areas ...of which PRU could benefit from
Good deal I hope PokerChips.
Reckon you will be able to pick up Pru for 9xx and sell for 10xx almost every month until China makes up its mind.
Can’t see Pru being able to do many deals…more of an organic play…in a market that has been growing at 12-15% for quite a while…..confident it will do well in the future…but as a USD stock rises in £ have taken the edge off recently..
I sold on Monday´s climb .... I don't trust China at the moment.....and this share price seems to just react to what happens there ...at present..
You don't get much outside of the Trading Updates from PRU ...so it seems to move on economic and political sentiment with market traders ....
hi mr picky, the sharetoken i posted did give full free access to that
article, but only for about one week or so after sharing it, then the
token expires. (can’t be bothered to look back at that edition, soz!)
If I may be picky Mr Picky
I believe Pru retains a near 20% holding in Jackson, and nil in M&G.
Jackson results will not be consolidated and so will not affect Pru earnings in a meaningful way.
It did sell some in the recent buy back programme, but the BB was targetting about 10% of equity so I dont think Pru dropped its share of ownership by much.
Prudential demerged Jackson last year so their results are not relevant to PRU anymore
Sadly you have to be a Times subscriber to read this.
Please give us the gist of it.
Yes, PRU has bounced by 1/3 since its late October lows. I've held the shares a long time having had both Jackson Inc and
M & G spun out of them. In my view this has increased the political risk by divesting of assets in more predictable economies. I find it difficult to value the share now. Any views, guys and girls?
Quite a strong recovery…..it seems a little progress on Covid policy is all that is needed for that part of the world to feel a lot better about the future. (Ping An was up 13% in HK today - which has a large financial is a very rare level of positive movement).
Investors fear of missing out seems to drive these burst of recovery well ahead of fundamentals changing much
With everything going on in the world surely things can only get better? Hopefully the easing on restrictions in China will continue and the share price will reflect this!? With this in mind what share price might we see by the end of next year?
strong recovery as the Dollar peaks and the FED looks to now move to 0.5/0.25/0.25 ....money moving out of the Dollar .... PRU in a good place with its digital developments and the idea that the Chinese will move away from Property speculation and into more secure mid/long term investing
China announced the relaxation of some of its hardline Covid-19 restrictions on Friday, after authorities had vowed to stick to a zero-tolerance virus approach despite mounting economic damage.
The country is the last major economy welded to a strategy of stamping out virus flare-ups as they occur, through a combination of snap lockdowns, mass testing and lengthy quarantines.
Top leaders had pledged to stick "unswervingly" to the policy, which has forced business closures, roiled international supply chains and weighed heavily on growth.
But a notice from the country's disease control agency on Friday said the Politburo Standing Committee – the apex of power in China – met Thursday to rubberstamp limited relaxations.
According to the notice, quarantines for inbound travellers will be cut from 10 days to eight, consisting of five days in a state isolation centre and three days at home.
Inbound arrivals will still be required to undergo six nucleic acid tests and will not be allowed to freely set foot outside during those eight days, the notice says.