Nice to see a pre-hVivo, pre-Venn poster still going strong Shandy. Remember when there were only about a handful of people on here? ( :
Earnings estimates are well out of date on the core business. On previous estimates the company is currently trading on about 25 times earnings for current year, falling to 15 for next, which seems low if they are accurate. Recent mood music seems a little muted, but there's reason to expect the market to perk up on updated info in the form of results and future guidance
If Ricky is right, -£3.5m represents a huge turnaround of two loss making companies, with the prospect of big and growing profits, for the first time, going forward. You don't need to be hyper-optimistic about the results to see value at the current price.
Still not clear what your estimate is Bronx. Seems like you are relying entirely on CF saying £19m revenue in second half, but with much higher costs? How does that translate into annual profit or loss, in your opinion?
It's unclear what you mean Bronx, but I'm guessing you are claiming £19m revenue in Q4, presumably cost free, since you haven't mentioned any? So that would give a full year profit of around £12m, in your estimation?
Sounds reasonable Ricky, giving full year results of about -£3.5m. I think that's more or less what the market expects, and anything better would be a bonus. Jasonsax is absolutely correct - only profitable in the last quarter, surprised all holders aren't aware of that. CF said, a while ago, that some people might be "pleasantly surprised", which could just be his usual optimism, but if true suggests a very strong fourth quarter reducing the loss a bit more. Anyone looking for a profit must interpret "profitable in Q4" as meaning a sudden dramatic turnaround which reverses 9 months of losses in a single quarter - not impossible, but hardly realistic.
It's the political instability which lies behind the Twitter row which really spooks the market - young Nigerians used Twitter to protest loudly against heavy handed police violence, banning it takes away their voice and will surely force them to express their justified anger in other ways. Bad politics is bad for business, and Buhari seems inept: a control freak in a country of freedom lovers. When you get praised by Poisoner Putin, you are obviously doing something badly wrong. Bottom line is that, although a Twitter ban doesn't really curtail AAF activities in any significant way, a political crisis in their biggest market would.
Never heard of MAS before- apparently it's the Singapore regulators. From the details below, it seems like a bit of a slap on the wrist?
"A reprimand is considered a serious warning by the regulators and is usually issued when a regulatory breach by a financial institution does not lead to any direct monetary harm to its customers.
Such reprimands are taken into account when regulators take enforcement action against future violations by the reprimanded financial institutions."
"At Prudential, three individuals referred to as Master Group Agency Manager (MGAM) Leaders and a consultant appointed by the firm had acted as supervisors.
However, Prudential failed to review and assess the performance of the MGAM Leaders and the consultant, assign BSC grades to them, as well as determine and pay their remuneration in accordance with the BSC.
Prudential also breached the RM Guidelines as it failed to put in place adequate risk mitigation procedures and compliance arrangements to monitor the activities of the MGAM Leaders and consultant."
Some of that may have happened 'cos Aviva poached a lot of staff? ( :
Guygad, I didn't suggest you were nervous, I asked what you meant by asking others if they were nervous. It seems your reason for anxiety is to do with the results not being published yet. No, I don't think anyone is "nervous" about that, as we wouldn't expect them to be published until later in the month.
smt? Do you mean Scottish Mortgage investment trust robleo? Not sure it makes sense to compare a fund manager with a fund, but your assessment is roughly correct - M&G does aim for business growth but the supersized dividend is the main attraction at the moment, whereas SMT, as far as I know, invests quite aggressively in leading international technology companies looking for SP gains. Of course, the two have utterly different risk profiles and business models, it's almost like comparing apples with tomato ketchup ( : (unless it's a different SMT you meant, of course)
A reasonable question guygad, but do you mean nervous about the delay in producing the results or about the contents? They were about -£5m at half time, so no-one except the ultra-positive are expecting anything other than a small loss, so it's just a case of how small. Last year is anvient history really though, mostly pre-transformation, so market will probably be more interested in the recent trajectory and forward looking statements.
Yes, it can surely go quite a lot higher based on dividend, and takeover rumours can probably push it up a bit more as well, and their is scope for quite a lot of business improvement too in terms of profitability, FUM etc. Recent drop seems to have been triggered by a downgrade by Bank of America to 'neutral', but as the wise philosophers in Green Day reminded us, Americans are "idiots" who cannot even make a decent cup of tea and play "football" with their HANDS.
Hello board. No, no, let me speak. Been looking at the fundamentals and this stock looks like an impressive long-term performer. May I ask holders, do you expect this to continue for the foreseeable future? Whats the downside? Thanks, and sorry for interrupting the party.
RE: New companies House documents08 Jun 2021 11:22
Ha ha. No, definitely not that JC - they will have to use some kind of price discovery process to find out how much the assets are worth to potential investors. Guess that value and divide it by 25m to get the price - so if the assets are worth £1million the SP would be 4p
Agree with Paul Scott - analysts probably giving too much weight to Covid sales, ignoring underlying growth and strengthened distribution network. I expect management will be looking to highlight improved margins and market share in the results- long term gains analysts will not be able to miss.
RE: RNS and 140,000,000 shares????02 Jun 2021 17:02
It looks like it is a pledge of 140m shares as security for the new loan facility, replacing the old ones. Shravin Bharti Mittal is a son of the founder of Bharti Airtel (AAFs parent company) and a director of AAF and Bharti global.
Indian Continent Investment seems to be a Mauritian registered company (?) the Bhartis use as a vehicle (?) for off-market share transactions (?) As Mittal is based in London, I assume this is a way of avoiding regulators or scrutiny - there must be some advantage to it.
RE: Impenetrable RNS announcements02 Jun 2021 14:53
Agreed the RNSs are not designed for easy reading, but they are comprehensible with a bit of effort. With a fund manager like M&G, most of the TR1 notifications will be about a change in their holding in a small company, so maybe start with that assumption.
So many good things today - outstanding results, unexpected special dividend, brilliant acquisition of Head of Zeus (superb talent, both in authors, management and staff), and a fabulous leap forward in the Digital resources division, where profits surged from £0.7m to £2.9m. Not too shabby for an old curiousity shop.