Thanks MrIndia, very interesting about the governance from Indian HQ. I previously thought AAF had more independence, but details in the prospectus also indicate a fair degree of reliance on the parent company's systems. The undervaluation seems obvious, but nice to have it confirmed by an insider. Any reasons for it, you are aware of? Anyway it's going in the right direction now. I think those satisfied with the recent gains may be missing the bigger picture, this surely has a long way to go to reach fair value?
Another very positive update.
"The Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturing sector, which has started to recover from the cyclical downturn we experienced in 2019, also continued to see strong order intake in April and May."
Net debt down from £45.3 (31 march) to £38M (31 May). "The Board expect net debt to reduce further during the second half of 2020." They are silent on the suspended dividend, so presumably they will be using revenue to pay down debt instead. Hopefully shareholders will be compensated by a rising share price.
Can we please stop with the tedious "sell up and move on" line. People should be allowed to raise concerns and ask questions on a discussion board without earning that unoriginal and needlessly aggressive response. The answer is no, because ORPH has the obvious ability to go beyond that price based on multiple projects, IF any one of them is successful or even shows signs of success. If they ALL fail, of course, then the price will fall, but it is surely far too early, and way too pessimistic, to reach that conclusion.
"Health economic data analysed from a cohort of UK patient cases is estimated to have saved in excess of £400,000 of NHS funding in just one hospital."
I said previously that I thought AAF were lagging behind rivals in some territories, but in the biggest market, Nigeria, although still in third place, they seem to be closing in on the competition?:
"the dividend I am confident on."
The dividend alone ought to push the price higher, and perhaps it is - ex div is still a month away (2nd July) - but as you say, that isn't the main attraction here. Nevertheless, when half of the FTSE100 have cancelled, or announced future cancellations, the divi here is something of a rarity, and offers a considerable buffer against any downside risk.
"Future is mobile phones for digital currencies"
Simple money transfer, advertising, and basic banking are potentially bigger opportunities. A couple of people have said how mobile phones are ubiquitous even among poorer people in this vast continent, and I've seen it myself in tiny rural villages in the Ivory Coast. Phones make the internet available where computers don't reach.
Thanks for confirming that UK, understood, and congratulations on pest control. I think the upside of AAF is the profitability and growth, which seem relatively unimpeded so far. The SP action doesn't reflect that though, which always leads to suspicion that there may be some bad news known only to insiders. Often it turns out the price is down for other reasons, or none at all! In the meantime, the dividend is extraordinary. Someone suggested it might get pulled, but that seems unlikely unless there are dramatic developments, since it has only recently been announced.
To be perfectly clear, what you are describing seems to be the possibility that shareholders will SELL existing shares rather than a "PLACING" of new ones?
I think you are hugely underestimating the Bharti families holding in AAF. It is (or was) " approximately 66.43% of the Company's issued share capital" according to the FT:
Afternoon AAFstronauts! What do you mean by a "secondary placing" UK? There hasn't been a placing so far (unless you count the enforced Malawi spinoff), just an IPO. The share lock-up period was for 180 days after IPO, so that's long gone. Do you mean a secondary offering, where the main shareholders sell off some of their stock, or perhaps where more shares are issued? I can't see a reason for either of those, although AAF do lag behind rivals in most of their markets, so perhaps you are hinting at potential investments to increase market share?
The severe fall in price since IPO may make AAF attractive for the parent company to buy back, but it is surely far too early for that when they are just getting started?
Andrew Ashwood offers insight into the enhancements Ascentric brings to M&G:
Even before the recovery, during the peak panic period (Feb, March), M&G AUM held up much, much better than their SP. The reported FUM was, I think, something like 8.2% down over the quarter to end of March, whereas the SP was down far more. Even now, the SP remains about 40% down from it's peak, whereas AUM have surely increased since end of March on the strong recovery in asset values alone?
Good point about the possibility of a second wave (of both the virus and the associated SP reaction) - in 1918 it came in the Autumn, due to a mutation, this time it could be because of easing restrictions too early (according to the scientists), and the "Cummings" effect, whereby a large minority are now ignoring them with impunity. It seems odd if this mere possibility is already priced in though, so perhaps a SP rise is due - like you say, a return to 200p, or even previous highs around 250p, would still leave the dividend looking comparatively attractive to income seekers: hard to find returns of this sort anywhere else.
According to that list (2 posts down), 49 of the FTSE100 companies have now either cut their dividend or announced a cut to the next one. Of the remaining 51, M&G have the third highest yield (but if you include the special dividend, their actual short term yield rises to 11.26%, which would be the highest of these 51). Their policy remains a progressive dividend.
In the light of that, while it's an interesting question to wonder why Norges bank are building a stake, perhaps it's more apt to turn that around and ask: why aren't others? M&G would now appear to be ideal for any pension fund, by the very nature of their business model, but also by comparison with other large companies whose suitability has become compromised by a radically changed business environment.
Not quite the ONLY share left with a decent dividend, but certainly one of the best in the FTSE100:
Doesn't sound very scientific to claim 99% chance when you haven't even got final results from stage 2. Long, long way to go from there! Can't dismiss Chinese technology, it's raised it's game, but statements like 99% chance sound naive. Plenty more vaccines out there, Cathal said 100, but wikipedia says 159. All potential business for ORPH.