"When a share goes x div it usually goes down the amount of divi then works itself back. If a divi is cancelled then surely the price of that share should go up by the same dividend amount as the company is saving paying the divi."
Yes, but not all shares are the same. M&G's main attraction is it's dividend: if the prospects for that have diminished, the reason for holding it weakens. The prospects for dividends generally have obviously diminished drastically, with widespread cancellations. M&Gs ability to sustain it's dividend policy, as stated in it's prospectus in October is surely hanging by a thread.
If they cancel the divi there will be a sell off, but if they pay it, there will probably be a sell-off afterwards anyway, so expect downwards pressure on the SP in the short term. As unvrkw says, if they do pay out, reinvesting dividends at depressed prices could well prove a rewarding decision in the long term, but you might want to just spend it before COVID19 gets you?
" how safe is it to invest here when these guys couldn't smell (or did they?) what was happening at Finablr (/NMC) when they were signing those agreements. Their judgement still will be questioned."
Nobody else sniffed problems at NMC at the time, including major international investors and auditors, and even whistleblowing shorters Muddy Waters didn't see anything wrong at Finablr.
AAF didn't mention Finablr once in their long rns about results, so I'm wondering if they were simply replaced by Western Union (because the WU deal was announced on 22nd January, exactly 3 months after the Finablr one, and they seem to offer a similar service?). If so, perhaps they did get a whiff of eau-de-Shetty?
Well the Pru paid out today, maybe that's a pointer? M&G management have a difficult conundrum figuring out whether their dividend policy (and perhaps their entire business model) is sustainable, or has to fall at the first hurdle due to unprecedented circumstances.
My best guess is that they will stretch themselves to pay this one, honouring the prospectus, but will probably also announce a suspension of future payments and an enforced revision of dividend policy, in recognition that this crisis is probably going to be a very long haul indeed.
"This is a revenue stream we didn't even know existed 1 week ago!"
Exactly, it's a bonus on top of the many other emerging new strands and synergies, which themselves are bonuses on top of the ongoing improvements in the underlying businesses and the fundamental development of the data platforms. That's one reason why Fairview's arguments are wonky: they take one aspect, try to make a mountain out of a molehill, but never bother to put them in context or make an overall assessment of the true value of the company. There is a danger they might create the impression that they are just interested in scoring shallow points and being contrary, rather than having a genuine discussion, which would be awfully upsetting.
Some contrasting points from the Standard about offline and online sales:
"Its core areas of life and medical insurance remain largely sold face-to-face by its agents in the region, so lockdown rules hit particularly hard."
"On a more positive note, it reported strong interest in its online medical app in the region launched last year with technology from London "medtech" group Babylon. The Pulse app is offered free as a basic service but offers a premium product offering prescriptions and phone consultations with a doctor. App downloads have jumped from 1.3 million to 4 million during the pandemic.
Also, its work last year getting regulatory clearance to sell more products remotely rather than face-to-face has eased some of the hit to sales."
Final dividend of 3 cents is massive - it equates to about 2.44p I think, making the annual yield well over 12% on current price. If sustainable, this suggests the share is massively undervalued, perhaps less than half of its true value? Sustainability is uncertain of course, COVID-19 impact is hard to gauge - people can afford less, but are arguably more reliant on phones.
"A major part of the business is closed due to covid."
Well, one part of hVivo was closed for a bit, that's excellent compared to the devastation across markets worldwide, and really praising with faint criticism. If that's all you've got, it's very reassuring, minimal impact. Always good to assess the downside, and great news when it is largely insignificant. Please keep posting any downside you can see, as it tends to spotlight the much bigger upside.
Not just down to Covid-19, they have been also been tarnished by association with Finablr (and thereby NMC) who I believe provide(d) money transfer services. Also, news about Airtel India is largely irrelevant as it is a separate company operating in a different territory with different regulators and competitors. Having said that, potential in Africa is huge, and shares were already cheap before the fall. Hoping for recovery on steadily increasing revenue.
It's incredible what CF has achieved in just a few months. The harder he works, the luckier he gets. The new RSV human challenge study work keeps the companies skills in the spotlight as well as generating significant medium term revenue. Feels like there is plenty more to come from this dynamic little company.
Interesting to see Cathal really focusing in on the human challenge model. Didn't fully appreciate the value of this in speeding up the vaccine testing program. If successful this could be headline news around the world as part of getting out of lockdown sooner. With hVivo having more experience than (apparently) anyone anywhere in this field, ORPH could potentially see a huge updraft purely on publicity over this one aspect of their portfolio.
It's quite likely you won't know anyone infected with COVID-19, because despite almost 3 million cases worldwide, that's a tiny percentage of the population. In Spain, one of the worst hit countries, the number infected is less than 0.5%, and it's even lower than than that in the UK (0.3%). Put another way, it's about 3 people in a thousand who have caught it in the UK.
In the US COVID-19 has, as experts predicted, proved much more deadly than flu. CDC preliminary estimates for flu deaths in the US last year are 24,000 – 62,000, giving an average of 43,000, whereas COVID-19 has killed more than 55,000 Americans in less than 4 months.
Multiple opportunities in healthcare, you'd have thought. What happened to the disinfectant paint project, for example? Current management seem to have gone into a bunker, inept underachievers who deserve to be replaced.
The margin increase is a solid achievement from management who have risen to the challenges. Having overcome some pretty big growing pains, G4M look stronger and hopefully poised to resume their interrupted trajectory with enhanced distribution and logistics capability.
"it will be paid I’m sure"
next day " they must have to suspend the divi at the very least and retain cash"
Your sureness seemed to last only 24 hrs, MrFlibbertigibbet :)
So far Pru and M&G both still on track to pay, definitely maybe.