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Retired Banker, You mention the loan at 6%. The amount is not very big, in relation to the money borrowed by POG, so maybe thats why the rate is lower.
Altyn plc (the Company) is pleased to announce that its application for a loan of US$17m (6.5bln Tenge) from Kazakh Bank JSC “Bank Center Credit” (BCC) has been approved by the bank’s credit committee. Thanks for the info, but, I will still stick to POG, and for my benefit, hope it doesnt drop to 8.5 ( lol ).
If, and I always use the word, if, they get it right, it will be multiples of this price, I agree the convertables helps keep the price down, unless they can find the cash to get rid of them once and for all.
Retired Banker, IMO POG has become a confirmed multifolds returns investment, Gold price is a plus factor
Only just got round to reading the results announcement from Tuesday ... an indication that I'm not nearly as focussed or exposed to POG as I once was. Unlike Rusty I'm happy to confirm that I have sold significantly since the RI - where in order to stop myself being diluted into oblivion I had to invest very heavily. Thankfully now my funds invested in POG is only about the same as my original cost in POG from 2012-15. Where I have sold to diversify into other gold miners I have been very happy.
The results - regarding POG and the POX Hub are generally quite good, but there are still far too many opaque practices and pronouncements for me to fully understand and be able to analyse the results to get a strong, positive feeling for the future.
There appear to be huge "other financial gains/losses" arising from IRC as well as our own debt restructuring and there is still capitalisation of loan interest (which is always a huge Red Flag to me). When items such as this impact the bottom line by somewhere between $10-50mm, I can't really say how profitable we are.
Likewise can anybody deduce from this announcement the likely contribution to the bottom line from processing 3rd party refractory ore through POX in H2 ? ... I know I can't.
Then there is the ongoing contingent obligation to IRC (which I still believe is $240mm so larger than the $208m it was before the re-structuring) as well as IRC's inherent inability to dig iron ore out of the ground and sell it at a profit. I still see IRC as a basket case millstone.
Finally the convertibles - we now have, as best I can determine, $125mm bonds which can convert to around 1bn shares at a price of $0.0135 cents x 0.7916 = 10.6866p. This I believe, more than anything else will act as a huge brake on the share price.
I think, just as 8.26p (the old conversion) kept a cap on the sp from 2016/2018 I believe we're unlikely to break above 11p very easily with this new "cap" in place. I want to be wrong, so we all make lots more money, but in the past couple of months I have actively sold four tranches of 50,000 shares for a fraction under 20 grand ... so that is 10 grand of "profits" I've crystallised from the rights issuance to help offset my losses incurred pre 2015. Just as I used to buy 100k shares at 6.5p and sell at 7.5-8p during 2016/17 so I might be inclined to buy back at 8-8.5p and sell again at 10p if the opportunity arises in 2019/20.
Good luck to all who have stayed the course.
For any who want to take a risky punt, might I suggest Altyn (ALTN) which has collapsed from 3p to 0.5p since beginning of 2018, when it was already cheap !!! ... but has just announced yesterday that after 2yrs of trying it has secured life saving funding and remarkably at a rate of 6% (so much for POG refinancing !!!). The sp blipped upto 0.9p yesterday before closing back at 0.75p. I genuinely believe this could double or treble from here in a very short period. For full disclosure I have a large c/fwd loss on A
Positives?
TTC downs, similarly AISC also down
Debt to EBITA ratio is also going into positive direction, so debt is no more issue
IRC--- POG's Gurantee reduced from 31% to 20%, in corporate World, it can be interpreted as IRC can raise funds( to double production) with out POG participating, neither Banks shackles hindering it anymore to some limit
TOP machine -- POX hub is grinding ore to Gold, of course with some pressure
PVX233, And I hope you make a fortune, then I make money as well. ( LOL )
Rusty,
Bought my first holding in POG, or Peter Hambro as it was, back in 2007. Sold in 2009 when it failed to get into the ftse 100. Been following it ever since so I know the story quite well. Bought back in for the turnaround and the realisation of POX.
A statement of the bleeding obvious. If its that obvious why are people expecting it to go to 20p in weeks ???
The board lost the trust of the markets years ago. Many false promises many false dawns, including telling the market we had a solution for the debt, before a highly dilutive rights issue long before you were invested.
A lot of people just seen the plain facts. They dont know whats gone on Before. I do..........!!!
Rusty, what you are saying is a statement of the bleeding obvious....
The reason why I'm invested in POG from 6p is that I believe they can deliver and regain trust.
Today's report just confirms the trend. I bought a few more first thing...
Polymetal Shares in Issue 470m Market Cap. £5,318m Market Size 2,000 PE Ratio 18.146 Earnings 62.33
Dividend 37.04 Yield 3.275%
The difference is very simple, they have delivered on promises and are profitable, POG, can do the same BUT, They need to get confidence back.
POG £360 million...!
Look at Poly ... now in FTSE 100 ... Russian gold miner?
Worth near £6 billion.
It's not Russia, it's the company and the system...
I do think it's worth looking at the Tamesis coverage and the CM presentation if only to remind yourself what a massive operation this is. Yes much of the debt is still there, plus the bonds and we've been massively diluted but if we can get on top of the debt helped by the gold price we could soon be in a better position (with POX) than when we were the darling of the city and famously on the brink of FTSE 100. Yes that would be a long journey from here particularly as Russia is a constant worry with Putin and Trump around but give the market what it needs and it will start looking ahead.
Everything is down to opinion I agree. POG were in a mess, but things change. I think the POX investment is massive and one thing they got right. The market penalises quickly but forgives in equal measure if it can see the cash. POG are a recovery play on the back of a buoyant gold price and with a technology that is unsurpassed in the region. They may have issues with debt but there's no way a competitor can build a POX plant for less than 700 million imo.
POG still high risk. But show me a company that isn't.....
The good thing about this is that its your opinion. Which is fine. I do hope your right. But, I dont beleive the markets trust Pavel and Peter, they have seen the company nearly bankrupted, based on the inability to repay debts and having their hands tied by bondholders.
This led to a highly dilutive rights issue which was underwritten by them, which allowed then to get back "skin in the game" after being nearly wiped out by Peter gambling on the price of gold.
I still believe in this company long term, buy they need to prove, that they are massing cash and will actually be able to start paying off these bonds. Untill them the markets will be sceptical.
I want this company to prosper, and have not sold 1 share since the rights issue and have no intention of doing so any time soon.
Tamesis 10th Sep. "Valuation – we maintain our target price of 16p and will revisit the model and our forecasts following the Capital Market’s Day presentation".
Well I'm positive too and PVX233 makes a good point about the SP moving in anticipation of the improving picture. The big boys aren't going to make a knee jerk reaction to the Capital Markets Day but we may see the impact as the week wears on. Didn't know we were expecting something from Tamesis, should be interesting.
I disagree about seeing the benefit of higher gold. We are hedged 90koz, which leaves 400koz unhedged being sold at $1500 since end June. It will bring the total for the year to around $1380. A significant rise on last year.
I also disagree on the share price prediction. If the market believes the story it will move well ahead of the fundamentals.
See what reaction Capital Market day brings. Tamesis will be revisiting their price target later today. Should get another note....
Having had a quick scan at work, it seems like positive update. We wont see the benefit of higher gold price for a while yet, Hopefully we can also hedge some in the future at higher prices as well. We should start to see real progress in next 6 months. But, a good start.
I still cant see us increasing the share price markedly, until we start seeing the company amassing cash, enough to give an indication that we can start reduce this borrowing.
Once we can do that we will see share price increase markedly. Personally I think we are quite a bit away from that yet.
Seems to me like good news grounded on real mining and engineering (POX) success.
I too look forward to Retired Banker's comments.
I hadn't noticed the welcome Responsible Business section before: is it new?
Only had a quick glance at the report, but isn't administration costs of c US$40m pa rather high?
"The Group has corporate offices in London, Moscow and Blagoveschensk, which together represent the central administration function. Central administration expenses increased by US$2.2 million from US$19.8 million in H1 2018 to US$22.0 million in H1 2019."
Its goodnight from me and its goodnight from him
Surely Freddie 11p is now in sight
Very upbeat i thought and june was 3 months ago , i reckon things gonna get even better very soon , sham sp is stagnent but usually takes a day or 2 to move , now over to the 2 r’s lol
But I would like to hear Retired Bucket and Rusty Banker's take