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Thank you bots for your very detailed response to my question .As you state there is no reason for the sp to be so low other than the economic situation which has hit the AIm market hard. I agree there are some sound companies in there whose sp is wrongly suffering. We both it seems agree that we are sticking with a company that has a bright future not reflected in its current valuation.
Had a feeling he might be the background seller. Hopefully he's now done
Griffiths sold a big chunk around 4%, question is who is the buyer?
If you look back you’ll find that the company itself were querying the AIM listing. Several companies have delisted from AIM recently. In one case a CEO described being listed on AIM as like trying to grow a plant in a desert. Nevertheless, following a shareholder consultation, PHC decided to commit to AIM. Meanwhile other companies have gone private or floated on the US (not always successfully).
For the last two years good news from PHC (and there’s been a fair amount) has been totally ignored. Now the company have been hit by macro market conditions and the SP has been trashed (and yet to company is still predicted to grow this year!).
Normally when one of my stocks crashes like this I’m out like a badger with it’s a*** on fire. I have no problem taking a loss, but this is different. The research is done, the results are excellent, registrations have been applied for and many secured. There is a desperate need for fertilizer alternatives given the weather induced crop stresses we are seeing. They have distribution deals in place and are selling to farmers across the world who are delighted with PHC products. The business has huge scalability - CR often says he wants a PHC product on every field in the world. The big expenses are behind us and we haven’t even started with PHC949 (nematode defence) which is a game changing product (regulatory approval pending). None of this enormous potential is priced in. Absolutely none.
This is a bump in the road, unprecedented destocking; it can’t go on forever ‘cos farmers still using the products.
As for AIM, there are some very good cheap stocks in the index now and investors are starting to come for them. It would help if some of the underlying causes of the destocking were sorted, namely high inflation and interest rates. Aside from that, the sooner the company makes first profits - the faster the SP recovery. They also need to confirm distribution tie-ups for new products in Brazil and Poland. Proact approval in India is pending and will be a massive boost once received. We’re close with all of these aims I believe.
I wouldn’t want PHC to go private, but would prefer a main listing on LSE at some point.
All IMO - DYOR
I ask again is the Aim market the correct place for this company. I keep reading here nothing but positive comments ,yet the sp has lost two thirds of its value in the last few weeks, and that from a historically bottom price. The sp suggests a junk stock
Hi BillB
I've also started buying in. This has been on my watch list for a long time - and the current price seems seriously good value (coming down 50% on nothing more than tough market conditions seems massively overdone to me).
The director buys have given me added confidence.
Fair but of stock changing hands but not much in the way of notifications as yet, good to see Chairman joining in with a market purchase too.
Whilst its a set back, perhaps not a disaster that the drop in share price suggests. Many of these things are outside of managements control such as registrations, even if delayed by a month or two it may mean missing the growing season for that year.
It's a vote of confidence for the Non Exec Director to purchase 500k shares. I realise it's only c. £18k worth but should allay fears of an impending raise and any other issues lurking
Had it on my watchlist for a while. Looks crazy cheap now! ATB
Make that 10% of the issued shares traded we should see more than one TR1 notification, also of interest is where the shares have ended up.
Ospraie more than likely will have some idea already of the downturn/destocking issue, rather than being company specific, could be contenders.
Should've just said reduced YOY growth from 60% or so to 40%, reads better than 28% down......bare in mind this is for FY24
Think they should just about be ok for B/E without a raise next year and with more deals etc to be signed up could still change the landscape
Absurd value here for a highly scalable market leading product where $30m have been spent on....broker ratings at still at 42p so says it all tbh
On a better day in a few years time this gets taken over for £1+
All IMO
Given the sp was already "in the gutter" before this bad news update, maybe a listing in the AIM market is the wrong place to be. This sp suggests a company with no future , nothing of value to bring "to market" and dangerous cash issues. Or is that a reasonable description of the condition of the company ?
Around 8% of the issued share cap traded, should see some movement notifications TR1's
Absurd drop here, still growth (albeit less) year on year, a lot would've been priced in already in the drop from 9p placing a few months ago.....expecting a recovery to the 5s when they're done
There's a reason the broker target only cut from 44p to 42p..... 11 bagger from here
All IMO
Greedy when others fearful.
Didn’t touch the SP though.
13.2 M share buy
Interesting
Removing listing fees at this level makes even more sense. Paying out circ *£450k per year is such a drain on resources and much better spent on the business itself imo.
I suspect the main hurdle for a merger is the share price, many large investors are in higher up 100p mark or higher, entertaining a low offer may prove unpalatable.
*see SPO RNS for approximate costings
Makes you wonder why Scobie Dickinson Ward was increasing their holding in recent months...............surely they would have knowledge of this?
The bigger concern is the impact on 2024 and whether we will need to raise additional capital.
In addition, regulatory delays in India and a number of other countries have resulted in delays to some product launches; whilst this is expected to have a limited impact on the Company in FY23, this is likely to affect performance more materially in FY24.
Revenue in FY24 is now anticipated to be approximately 28% lower than market expectations of $23m, due to lower levels of inventory being maintained by the Company's distributors and regulatory delays in some territories. The Board intends to review operating expenses accordingly.
Very disappointing to read............I know the targets were ambitious but the SP decimation is painful and a grey cloud will hang over until they clarify the impact on future cash position. Raising funds at this level would be a disaster
Headwinds in the agro sector this year are well known. Compared to many companies, PHC are fairing well, but not immune to the economic and regulatory slowdown. It’s our turn to manage expectations with a downgrade. It’s painful, but on the plus side we have a good business model, good products that sell, and an amazing management team.
It is almost certain that we will get the regulatory approvals we need to move forwards in Poland, Brazil, Mexico, US and (importantly) India - it will just take a bit longer.
Furthermore, it seems that the Fed and BoE are nearing a cut in interest rates easing pressure on farmers.
30% down is an unfair reflection of the progress made by PHC - and so I shall grab my ‘Black Friday’ stake and wait patiently.
This was my post from a week or so ago, has some useful figured for comparison, f/y 2022 revenue came in at $11,767 so if we assume modest growth round up 2023 to $12m.
Share price at 3.5p puts market cap under £12m GBP
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What are investors thoughts on H2 this year Sept IMC Q & A session was interesting, Jeff's sounded pretty confident when quizzed on figure need to for f/y.
H1 $5.6m which equated to 1% increase on 2022 H1, this leaves a whopping $10.3m for H2 to achieve f/y $15.9m guidance.
H2 - 2022 came in at $6.3m so adopting a more cautious approach I would suggest in the region of $8m is more realistic, therefore f/y 2023 would come in at $13.6m.
Even if they roll over some of the revenue into 2024 it would still equate to a very reasonable 15% growth on 2022 numbers.
I thought H2 figures were unlikely but not such a haircut, especially alter managements upbeat investor presentation in Sept.
It really needs someone with clout and reach to takeover, economies of scale are key here.
I think we were expecting this and it's more than priced in now.
Against the sector a flat performance in 2023 is very good.
Next year is still forecast to grow about 40% to $16.5m.
They should still easily have enough cash to get to breakeven. I think 2024 as a whole will be close to breakeven and I think H2 2024 will be cashflow positive.
Still good value at these levels.
Profit warning, get out, trying put it nicely lol
Revenue in FY24 is now anticipated to be approximately 28% lower than market expectations of $23m, due to lower levels of inventory being maintained by the Company's distributors and regulatory delays in some territories. The Board intends to review operating expenses accordingly.... Revenue in FY24 is now anticipated to be approximately 28% lower than market expectations of $23m, due to lower levels of inventory being maintained by the Company's distributors and regulatory delays in some territories. The Board intends to review operating expenses accordingly.
Terrible news