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My thoughts

1st It’s an irrational market regarding SP

I guess many will be attracted to the dividend, but that divi is a consequence of the ITH higher risk given it’s tied to the UK with its banana green and utterly incompetent Labour government.

Give me a fair divi, growth potential and diversification any day.

HBR is my pick.

Labour and Conservatives.

Despite Labour still being in power, they are ‘has beens’; both of them.

The country has been overrun by migrants (mostly men, mostly culturally different, mostly unskilled) and over the last three decades I’ve been loosing a sense of place within the UK.

Reform will be my last hope.

Tax credit = delicious incoming divi.

Yum yum.

If UK stocks were doing well, I wouldn’t be buying them.

What will happen will happen, let’s see. But ask yourself is this good news?

Risk

A re-rate down perhaps.

The mag 7 are major constituents of many funds globally pushing P/E ratios to unrealistic levels whereby the price reflects earnings multiples years ahead. I imagine many fund investors don’t know how exposed they are to the mag 7 thinking that they’re diversified into several funds all of which have high exposure to these runaway stocks (some would be horrified if they knew).

Mag 7 earnings (in reality) are struggling to keep pace with expectations. For example, Tesla sales are down and mag 7 yields are less than money management funds (currently 5% approx).

Meanwhile smaller US companies show comparatively lacklustre performance and outside the US companies look cheap (e.g. FTSE).

It’s for this reason that I think we have a tech bubble and when it bursts, and it will, the shockwaves will be felt mainly in the tech sector. Collateral impact will be felt more generally as folk ditch funds with a high tech (mag 7) exposure. Redemptions will be huge.

When this will happen is anyone’s guess. As Peter Lynch once mentioned, investors sometimes lose more money waiting for a stock market crash (with large cash positions) than they would if they stayed in the market. However lots of people are waiting on the sell button for the current bubble to burst meaning that when it happens the market will spectacularly collapse.

Most pundits advise investors to stay in the market whatever and reduce exposure to tech. I also like non-tech stocks/funds with a high yield return so that I can reinvest divis at lower levels after a crash.

There’s nothing quite as nice as those divis rolling in and with safer companies, I’m not expecting any significant cuts.

LGEN ticks the box for me.

All in my humble opinion.

Conclusion

Mexico is an open door for Harbour so they’re laying foundations. I doubt this would happen unless they’d been shown the welcome mat.

There are other key players and a complex ownership picture. This complicates M&A activity IMV so I suspect Harbour will mind their own business and await approaches. But WTFDIK.

Looking to buy a fund that just so happens to have CBG as an asset (recent purchase). Seems quite binary to me (court case) but with more upside potential than downside. Looking at the chart, the knife seems to have landed and is wobbling with the impact.

Tempted the think there’s a double bottom, gut feeling from the TA, but no one knows.

Don’t think they’ll win the court appeal - not a chance IMV, but this is mostly/completely in the price I reckon.

A longterm B&H and pray they pay a divi again.

So the NAV as the divi is paid because it reduces the fund. If, however, the divi is covered by profits from the assets, then NAV is preserved.

Another scenario is a windup of the fund whereby the assets are sold and proceeds distributed to shareholders. Given the discount to NAV at Gore St, this could be a profitable option.

In short the divi and profits are achievable. This is a complex business and several required factors are in play leading to some doubters. Board are upbeat and confident though.

Suggest you watch the recent Investor Meet Company webinar.

Reform deserves a chance. Better than the moronic muppets we have in at the moment. Cons have blown their chance.

Sorry back to L&G

Ditto SittingDuck,

Especially the field of operation.

A punt yes, but why dump HBR, a solid company, for it?

We could do with an activist like Saba Capital on the board. It would be bye-bye current board - let’s get some value for shareholders. They’re doing the rounds. UK ant energy trusts must be in their sights.

See article below.

https://realbusiness.co.uk/pay-tax-dividends-reinvested#:~:text=In%20short%2C%20reinvesting%20dividends%20doesn,a%20time%20that%20suits%20them.

Think Santa fell off the sleigh.

To be fair, I continue to feel confident in the progression and fundamentals of GSF following the presentation.

Since investing here 2 months ago I’ve been trying to decide if GSF is a cash cow or an income trap.

My conclusion is a cash cow. Take the divi and ride the bumps.

Steady as they go then.

So the board are on radio silence. For example they send out investor relations to present a keynotes webcast to pacify the punters - “nothing to see here; business as usual”.

Talk of future progression (acquisitions, US listing, NS sales) downplayed.

SP looks like it’s carrying a lead weight; as though some market mechanism is weighing it down.

It all feels very takeover code to me.

Suggest their waist deep in discussions.

Just a hunch - been through 2 TOs this year.