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Telegraph

The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US launched strikes against the country’s nuclear facilities.

Given the heavy presence of US military in the gulf, I can see the Iranians mining the straights of Hormuz . That would cause a nightmare for oil transportation.

Finally succumbed to the political conversation here. Happy for folk to disagree with me and no more posts on this topic from me.

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I’m in Reading right now. It’s a place I lived for many years but not visited for 30 years.

Very few English speakers on the train or in the town centre. Nice restaurants give way to street-food shanty-like outlets. Lots of empty shops or pop-ups with homeless people camped out in the entrances. Tired and tarnished concrete structures with weeds growing out of everywhere. The career advice centre in the Library is now a migrant advice centre. My sense of place is profoundly challenged.

I’m not making a value judgement here (could get arrested), just observing broken Britain under Labour and the Tories.

$85m sale of Vietnam oilfield soon.

https://www.bairdmaritime.com/offshore/exploration-development/enquest-to-finalise-84m-vietnam-oilfield-acquisition-soon-ceo-says

Seen it so many times, just before significant upside move the price will dip 5-10% to shake out the weak hands.

Wealth transfers in a flash from 'poor' sellers to 'wealthy' buyers and the SP leaps upwards.

Heaven forbid the plebs get wealthy - who's going to sweep the streets?

Just a warning, and BTW I don't consider the current -1.45% a tree shake.

IMO DYOR

No, he has to push past 216 people on his commute.

Brent is on fire. $78.85.

Gas $4.08 MMBtu

And stupid Liebor party are shutting down NS investment and importing Oil and Gas from abroad.

Total madness.

Limited impact of Iran/Israel war - for now.

If the Strait of Hormuz is mined or the Iranian navy start boarding/ceasing ships, it's worth remembering that 20% of global oil supplies and 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are transported via this route.

Second, if the Iranian regime is brought down (a strong possibility) and the country decends into chaos (which it would), it's worth remembering that it produces about 3.4m barrels of oil a day, and exports about 1.7m barrels a day; that's 1.6% of global oil demand.

At the moment, global oil supply is largely unaffected (although Israel have bombed several significant Iranian energy facilities); but the risk of escalation is absolutely there and leading to the current risk premium on the O&G price. If those risks become a reality, O&G prices will rise significantly from here.

IMO DYOR

Investors have been risk off for a while now (see gold and bitcoin prices). Companies with debt are seen as risky, thus this is weighing on the SP.

I was personally 'delighted' when the CFO prioritied debt repayment leaving room for further acquisitions, field development and growth in the nearer future. I know some disagree, but I want a longterm income and growth in a company that can weather the downturns along the way.

Rumours of three ships on fire near strait of hormuz.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/gulf-of-oman-ships-on-fire-near-strait-of-hormuz-amid-israel-iran-conflict-photos-emerge-101750126338037.html

This is a good place for hedging activity by produces perhaps. It's been mentioned by others.

The impact of hedging on oil demand and prices (via derivatives usually) is complex but can lead to volitility in the oil price.

Oil and gas sites hit by Israel

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/15/which-iranian-oil-and-gas-fields-has-israel-hit-and-why-do-they-matter

Who knows Rookie?

I'm just wondering about those short positions; a further rise in HBR will start to squeeze.

They could always close them :-))

Impact of Strait of Hormuz blockade which is under consideration by Iran.. of course.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/06/14/whats-at-stake-for-europe-if-strait-of-hormuz-is-blocked

For now... Could it be that HBR has limited region risk as far as the Middle East is concerned?

Rookie

Israel has been acting like a rabid pitbull recently, US has struggled with, and finally let go of the leash.

It makes me laugh that Trumps attempts to win the the Nobel Peace prize are failing miserably. The art of the deal is looking a bit Jackson Pollock.

As usually happens with a stress shock (like bombing of Iran) there tends to be a weird stillness when everyone wonders "what just happened".

I tend to think the political and economic ramifications happen later with any escalation. What seems clear is that Israel isn't done yet; and Iran's retaliation was weak following the death of their commanders last night. No; the political fallout is yet to come and since the Iranians will want to hit back at the US as well as Israel, causing the oil price to rise will be at the forefront of their minds (something that Trump doesn't want). Blockading the Strait of Hormuz will cause havoc to shipping from oil rich states. The price of oil would rocket leading to a hike in US inflation and possibly higher or sustained interest rates. I note that Marco Rubio was quick to say that the Israel attack had nothing to do with the US. Yeah, right.

Fat lady just clearing her throat chaps.

IMO DYOR

Some talk of a possible Israel strike on Iran.

If this happened global stock markets would instantly tank.

Oil price would rocket.

BUT

Would HBR go down with stocks or up with oil?

An informed response please.

Well I haven't sold early, but since I've found an extra £22k under the sofa, a dip would be quite nice this morning.

There’s a ton of building announced in the UK, China -US getting sorted, Argentina going gangbusters with energy build-out, oil price up.

HBR struggling to gain a few pence. I’m thinking we should be up by a quid or two.

Ffs