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That’s good - Brent is up a bit today.

Just at add my 2.5p worth.

I’m happy with Mike’s estimate. He did point this out at the time, but ValueS has kindly confirmed that there are other variables impacting the figures.

Suggest we move forward with Mikes estimate which he’s kind enough to provide.

Yes?

Dan222

I kinda reject your conclusion here. If you're in HBR for the long term (years) the BB will have many periods of positivity as well as negativity.

My arguement is that fossil fuels are in the same place as Gold was in 1999/2002. Noone wanted it and Gordon Brown (Labour Party) practically gave away the UK reserves. O&G are in the same place now, everyone is saying there's a glut of oil and noone needs it, but the fact that the price has stayed steady in the face of political pressure to drop it, suggests that there is demand out there. I suspect there is the potential for the market to get very tight, very quickly, 'cos you can't just increase supply on a sixpence. Like Gold, the price of O&G could easily go up x3-4.

If you want the big gains you have to hold for the long-term, otherwise sell too quickly for an £8k profit and hand your shares to a wealthy SHARK who will be holding for £100k+.

NAV

I see HBR moving up to £3 bf Xmas. I think there’s a big rotation into oil from other commodities happening right now… and the oil cycle is turning.

Pathetic given the risk you took

I agree with the high divi due to unfair low value comments, but you also need to consider UK inflation at about 4%+ (allowing for government spin). Divis don’t look so generous when you do.

Expectation management:

Following the recent ‘steady as we go’ presentation by our Lizzy, I expect more of the same.

I’d be happy with that.

Some news on what BASF want to do with their ginormous holding would be good. It’s becoming an overhanging sword of Damocles. So far they ‘seem’ to be supportive of the company and not backseats driving.

Anyways, oil up today so looking good ;-)

According to the FT, Reeves is looking to include a minimum UK shareholding in S&S ISAs, maybe as much as 50% and with a stamp duty tax break. It’s unknown how this would work, but given that gold, tech and financials have been looking frothy of late; the beaten-up oil sector looks like a good rotation point…. and a stock like Harbour would be attractive as a UK stock for the new Brit ISA.

All speculation, but jolly good fun aye.

Impressive £1.2m uncrossed trade at the end.

Trump influence leading to cheap oil - yes that’s right; but don’t forget the reason why Trump (and the western world) wanted cheap oil. This was to reduce Russia’s access to oil revenue and by reducing extension war funds. If Russia/Ukraine gets settled, the oil price could actually rise.

I don’t think the current market turmoil is anything more than a correction. I do think there are some powerfully wealth people getting fed up waiting for a market crash, and the toys are coming out of the pram as they waste money sitting on the sidelines.

So the question is why are they selling? I assume it’s because everyone is worrying about the media forecast market crash.

I suppose I’ve thought about it. Yes it will impact HBR SP and probably the price of oil. But should I sell Harbour?

Comments welcome…..

“Dow futures jump 300 points as markets eye another serving of the TACO trade after Trump says ‘Don’t worry about China’”

https://fortune.com/2025/10/12/stock-market-today-dow-futures-trump-tariffs-china-trade-war-taco/

These knee jerk reactions to Trump tweets are getting ridiculous.

Trump tariff on China, but TACO.

Give it a week.

Lots of reasons for oil prices to rise. How about dollar weakness and high inflation in the western world.

But Trump wants low oil prices and he has influence over the big banks and the Saudis. Collectively they have more money than God and can place the price of oil with their hands.

…..and where’s the drop?

Y11-shx

You seem to live in a parallel universe.

Hope you’re right though.

Is the drop down to BASF ‘maintaining’ their 46% interest by selling at the same time each day. Or is it something to do with the US market opening.

Quite right .

100% of their O&G production is in managed decline. Like they’re not putting oil and gas into the ground … (adopts stupid voice) … are they?

O&G and mining are wasting industries. They need to constantly search for new assets in the ground to replace extracted reserves. This can be through exploration or acquisition.

BASF have a front-seat view of what’s going on at Harbour (two directors). They can see how the WD merger is progressing; they can see how good the opportunities are in Mexico and in Argentina. So it’s hard to know whether to see their continuing presence within Harbour as a Sword of Damocles or a comforting sign of a golden age to come.