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I find AI (copilot) a useful sounding-board to air my ideas. The information used by copilot is gathered from a range of sources and occasionally it has suggested ideas that have led me to reconsider my thinking. I suppose the main advantages of using AI are that doesn’t get bored, provides quick responses and has no hidden agenda (unlike many posters here -… y11). Copilot will also suggest unbiased shareprice and economic projection (based on information available), and stress test your portfolio and ideas. I’ve spotted mistakes, but fewer with copilot than with other AI - things are improving. Nevertheless, I always DMOR. I recommend always using the text version, not the chat. Text provides much more detail.

Frankly I can’t understand folk not using it as a reflective resource; but that’s humans for you.

My take was that they were planning to align distribution ‘policy’ with the broader industry, rather than the distribution ‘amount’. The amount will be determined by free cash flow. It’s also worth considering that the dividend is high because the shareprice is ridiculously low. If the shareprice was 290p (which is a broker target), this yields 6-7%, which is a risk premium of only 2-3% above inflation. Ergo I don’t see a big cut, if any.

IMHO

Y11

You put your whole self in, your whole self out,

In, out, in, out, you shake it all about,

You do the okey kokey and you turn around,

That's what it's all about!

Oooooo, the okey kokey!

Oooooo, the okey kokey!

Oooooo, the okey kokey!

Knees bent, arms stretched, ra ra ra!"

Your broker must love you - Merry Xmas.

Nitro,

You may be right, but the shareprice has been ranging from 193p-244p approx since August. The current price is completely consistent with the broad flag configutation on the chart. We're near (but not quite on) the support line, so if it breaks, I will agree with the market pessimism hypothesis. This could be before the end of the day - or maybe not.

The name

LLOG stands for Louisiana Land Oil and Gas.

Founded in 1977 by Gerald "Jerry" Boelte, the company was originally named with this acronym to reflect its regional focus. However, according to historical company presentations, the firm rarely uses the full name because it sounds too similar to the "Louisiana Land and Exploration" company.

IMO Harbour is essentially a recovery play with the recovery strategy already in place and executed. No need to guess the future, it’s all out there. That is to diversify beyond one of the most hostile tax regimes (UK) to some of the most oil friendly postcodes in the world and engaged in some of the most exciting oil and gas projects available. These acquisitions will transform Harbour into a major global player. The risk is the debt pile; quality projects attract competition and Harbour have had to pay a competitive price; but I believe the company is fiscally responsible and this responsibility has included a new investor returns policy, which means that the dividend will be sensitive to resources available within the company. My take is that the policy will be benchmarked with the industry, not the dividend amount. This will depend on FCF.

It takes investors to see beyond the next couple of years (which is nothing in big buisiness), but IMHO I can’t see the Market Cap or share price remaining at the current ‘recovery play’ values.

Video of the Salamanca Project.

Nice to know what we’re getting for our money.

https://youtu.be/-0ORvvZjNCA?si=A9Qqef3pQdEzBBHp

The Salamanca project is the centerpiece of Harbour Energy’s acquisition of LLOG. It isn't just a new oil field; it’s an innovative, "circular economy" approach to deepwater production that achieved a major milestone just a few months ago.

As of late 2025, here is why Salamanca is so critical for Harbour:

1. The "First-of-its-Kind" Refurbishment

The Salamanca Floating Production Unit (FPU) is a semi-submersible platform located in the Keathley Canyon (approx. 200 miles off the coast of Louisiana).

• The "Recycled" Platform: Instead of building a new platform (which can take 5+ years and billions of dollars), LLOG took the decommissioned Independence Hub facility and completely refurbished it.

• Speed to Market: This allowed LLOG to bring the Leon and Castile fields online much faster than a traditional "greenfield" project.

• ESG Credentials: The refurbishment reduced the carbon emissions impact of construction by roughly 87% compared to a new build. This is a massive selling point for Harbour as they face scrutiny over environmental impact.

2. Operational Status: "First Oil" Achieved

The timing of the acquisition is perfect for Harbour because the project is no longer a "gamble"—it is a producer.

• First Oil: Salamanca achieved first production in September 2025.

• Current Phase: It is currently in a "ramp-up" phase. Initial production started from the Leon field; additional wells from the Castile field are being tied in through late 2025 and into 2026.

• Capacity: The unit is designed to handle 60,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) and 40 million cubic feet of gas per day.

3. Why it matters for Harbour’s "Medium-Term"

When you asked if LLOG is a good acquisition, Salamanca is the answer. It provides:

• Immediate Cash Flow: Since it is already producing, Harbour isn't just buying "potential"; they are buying a flowing checkbook.

• Low Operating Costs: LLOG’s operating costs are roughly $12 per barrel, significantly lower than much of Harbour's aging North Sea infrastructure.

• Growth Profile: Harbour expects their US production to double by 2028, and Salamanca is the engine driving that growth. It taps into the "Lower Tertiary Wilcox" play, which is one of the most prolific and long-lived oil trends in the Gulf.

Gemini

Re; Divi

In the meeting Alexander did say that distributions won’t necessarily appear that different to now. But they will vary with FCF which, in turn depends on the oil price and related hedging. Seems a sensible approach.

Thank you Santa - not.

So we have Ukraine damaging and destroying Russia’s oil infrastructure and shadow fleet. Meanwhile the US is capturing Venezuelan oil tankers and threatening war - creating broad tension in the region. You’d think the oil price would be on fire - but instead it’s threatening to break down lower.

Sorry it’s being fixed; probably with Trumps influence as the mid term elections approach.

Okay, so oil prices are going down; but I just filled my car up and unleaded is significantly higher.

Yes I know - refining costs and most of it goes in tax, but seriously!

Trump met with the Saudi’s recently and the word on the street is that deals have been done for Saudi to pump more. Trump also would love a piece of Venezuela oil (which has hitherto been mismanaged by the lefties) and to wrap up the Russia Ukraine war. All of this would weigh on the price of oil and send a number of smaller companies to the wall. The idea is cheap energy as he runs into the mid-term election. Thus no reprieve for us until H2 26.

Maybe the price will go up now?

People are saying that a hidden hand is keeping the oil price low until after the US mid-term elections next year.

Dan - You know it. So do I.

Egghead

I know what you mean, but O&G companies will surrender excellent prospects for peanuts when they're facing the wall.

How about a merger with backdoor US listing? I could stomach that.

Johny

Actually I’m a big hairy sheep, but the grass smells nice.

Y11

LOL

You really shouldn’t advertise your limits.

Copilot AI.

I ask AI a few questions as a prelude to doing further research on stocks. Copilot is the best I’ve used so far, she even did a stress test on my portfolio. It’s free in the App Store. BTW, it’s better to write your queries to Copilot rather than asking the talking app. You get more detail.