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LLOG is building production and reserves in the ultra-deepwater area of the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) and its potential next growth phase is expected to revolve around the Blacktip and Blacktip North and Leopard discoveries in the Perdido area, with potential start-ups through subsea infrastructure and FPUs around 2029-2030.

I don't know why this is news all of a sudden?

Here’s a fact:

The average inflation‑adjusted crude oil price since 1946 is about $58 per barrel.

Macrotrends shows similar long‑run real averages for WTI and Brent around $55–$65 in today’s dollars

Even if this is the case - look at the barriers.

Oh, Trump will take the profits of Venezuelan oil and distribute it to the American and Venezuelan people. Can you imagine the Venezuelan people trusting Trump with this? Can you see them helping the US to systematically plunder of their country? So what then; boots on the ground and another forever war?

30-50 mln barrels of oil to the US? - In Trumps dreams.

I think Trump has finally gone mad. It's far more likely that oil production in Veneszuela will come to a near standstill.

Why?

1/ Well the infrastructure is aging an inefficient.

2/ The workforce have been underpaid for years and lack any motivation to work for the US.

3/ The US is "running" Venezuela from a distance, but the people on the ground are Maduro's cronies. They also have no motivation to help the US and would probably far sooner see production stop than allow the US to steal their oil.

4/ Why would any US oil company (or the US Govt) want to spend billons on rebuilding the Venezuela's oil infrastructure in order to produce low value barrels of heavy gloop (selling at a loss) within a country whose people simply don't want you there? It doesn't make any sense.

5/ The US has enough oil as it is; they don't need Venezuela's oil. The US government's action is more about gold and other minnerals.

More oil from Venezuela? - It's not happening any time soon. Not for a decade or more IMV.

"The US president wants American oil firms to pile billions of dollars into the South American country, which has the largest crude oil reserves on the planet, to mobilise the largely untapped resource. He said US companies will fix Venezuela's "badly broken" oil infrastructure and "start making money for the country". But experts warned of huge challenges with Trump's plan, saying it would cost billions and take up to a decade to produce a meaningful uplift in oil output."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkr4y717k7o

Traders braced for oil market upheaval after Donald Trump’s Venezuela strikes

[section]

....Despite the upheaval in Venezuela, Opec+ signalled no immediate shift in strategy at a scheduled update on Sunday. Eight members of the producer group, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates, met briefly and agreed to maintain their pause on production increases until at least April. In the short term, Venezuela’s oil output could fall further. The blockade has sharply restricted imports of the feedstocks required to blend the country’s heavy crude for export, tightening operational constraints. Reuters reported on Sunday that state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) had asked some joint venture partners to scale back production. “We have identified at least 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day that have already been shut in, and it could be more,” Sen said. “In the very short term, the risk is that we lose even more production.”

https://www.ft.com/content/4a21608d-363c-467c-9698-b6c083715493

Rookie,

The US doesn’t need to consume more, it needs to go on a diet. Consume less, waste less, share more among its people and rediscover it’s g** d*** moral compass. Rant over.

Rookie,

You listen to Trump? Seriously?

This is the guy who said he could end Russia Ukraine in a day and suggested trialing an injection of bleach to cure covid. Trump fell out of the stupid tree at birth and hit every branch on the way down.

Venezuela export just over 1m barrels oil a day currently (not much really). This daily total has been declining for a couple of decades as their oil infrastructure crumbles through lack of investment. Even though the country has billions of barrels in reserve, it will take years and $billions to pick up production materially.

Venezuela - the US’s Alaska in the south.

…And the spin has started already. How can anyone ‘know’ how the global markets will react hours after the event.

"Venezuela state oil company PDVSA tells employees production and refining operations are normal" (following today's attack, so no impact on production/ refining).

Yes I heard that too, and that the export port has been badly damaged. It's too early to tell what the fallout will be; but that uncertainty also feeds into the price spike hypothesis. I imagine the western media (especially in the US) will do their best to spin the oil price downwards. Trump has managed to do this before given that the midterms are closing in. As for the US exploiting or increasing oil supplies from Venezuela - well it's not happening tomorrow or even this year IMV. I imagine the country's oil infrastructure is in a dire state with an unmotivated and poorly managed workforce.

Venezuela situation will likely cause a spike in oil prices in the short term IMV. The country produces mainly heavy oil which is difficult to replace. Supply, sanctions, export routes will all be affected (e.g. the main Venezuela export hub has been bombed and badly damaged). In the medium term oil prices may settle depending if the military gain control, but civil unrest may be sparked leading to civil war (likely). Chevron, the only company still involved in Venezuela, are likely to halt operations; albeit temporarily. Globally, if the oil glut and low oil demand is real; the impact of this political shock may be muted or absorbed; but oil supply will tighten, so prices will still be affected IMV..

If China - Taiwan kicks off then Oil and Gas transportation in the north and south China Sea would be catastrophically affected (that's 50% of global exports). The impact could very well be larger than the beginning of the Russia Ukraine war. Oil and Gas prices would go through the roof along with shipping and related insurance costs. Of cause HBR are producing and exporting in the Atlantic basin - so would not be adversely impacted apart from a significant pop in the shareprice.

Noone's talking about this?

I just noticed the longstanding HBR short position is missing on LSE dashboard.

When did that happen?

Oh, and there'll probably be another one announced and voted on at the AGM in May.

The BB programme not due to end for 3 months, yes?

The most probable sequence is:

1. Short-term: A small pullback or drift as the mechanical bid disappears.

2. Medium-term: Price action becomes more sensitive to oil/gas prices and operational updates.

3. Long-term: The reduced share count enhances per‑share value and can support a higher floor. It reduces Harbours per share costs leaving more fcf for distributions.

“Sharp has ….a 51.30% success rate on recommended stocks.“

1.3% better than chance then.

Here’s something that AI told me about HBR and didn’t care about my feelings:-

The longterm, midterm and short-term trend is down. So my top-up remains in CSH2.

Surely the broader market will catch up with HBR before long.

I agree.

I love your posts y11; they’re funny; but I don’t take them seriously LOL.

Every board needs a Y11.

😂