focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
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From Sept PREtec announcement:
· MOSHY (PHC25279) is a foliar product registered in Brazil to control foliar diseases in coffee and sugar cane.
· TEIKKO (PHC68949) is a seed treatment to control harmful soil nematodes in soybean fields. This is expected to be registered in Brazil before the end of 2023.
· MOSHY and TEIKKO add to the portfolio of Plant Health Care products available to growers in Brazil.
· Discussions with potential Brazilian distributors of MOSHY and TEIKKO are ongoing.
· For the six months ended 30 June 2023, revenue in Brazil was up 48%, driven by in-market demand for H2Copla® (Harpinαβ) and Saori® (PREtec).
That's a great find 2p, highly informative article especially the tables which really illustrate the growth potential (Table 2: Nematicide products introduced in Latin America within 3 years).
Some big names in this market
Direct link to article
https://news.agropages.com/News/Detail-47987.htm
A new product from Plant Health Care, PHC68949, based on harpin-derived peptides for the control of nematodes, is being filed for registration in Brazil. According to the company, as a peptide-based technology, PHC68949 breaks down rapidly within the environment, has no adverse effects on non-target organisms, and has a zero-day pre-harvest interval with no restrictions on maximum residue limits in harvested seed or crops. PHC68949 will provide growers with highly flexible nematode control because it can be applied as foliar spray, or as a seed treatment via both on-farm and industrial seed treatment.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/agro-pages-296b571a_the-rise-of-bionematicides-tackling-the-activity-7129769345018204161-nlpU?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
Citrus fruits have been terrible the past few years
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/%C3%A1ngel-mar%C3%ADn-931a5630_proact-aa-bioestimula-un-bosque-de-300-hect%C3%A1reas-activity-7129783826003746816-XDMs?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
15% y/y increase would be okay in my book, of course happy if this is exceeded but also mindful of the lumpy nature of revenues, smoothing out year to year may help appease investors.
Morningstar updated, not a huge fan of this site as there are no dates but it does show Crux selling down further, could be our distressed seller in which case has to be close rump with data being delayed.
PHC shareholder page has yet to update but looks okay when adding in Newlands and Scobie recent purchases.
Just as a closed out this page after posting, CBNC has a feature on funds money flow, again interest bearing instruments receiving most of the capital.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/t-bill-and-chill-why-jack-bogles-strategy-of-lazy-investing-is-making-a-comeback-.html
Concur with Investment Approach as posted below.
Glad we did a fund raise before the recent crash.
I listened to the IMC presentations a couple of times. At the time of broadcast, the company would already have known some of the H2 data since we were a couple of months in, and there was some bold optimisim on show. So I'm hopeful for H2. Drops like the one we've experienced are tough for investors and we have to have faith in the companies and funds we purchase. I quite like the investment advice below.
--------------
Investment Approach
In our opinion, business ownership offers the best means to protect and grow capital in real terms over time. It
provides us with a claim on the true sources of wealth creation. Patient long-term ownership of a limited number
of carefully selected businesses, each providing products and services that satisfy society’s needs, is the core of
the Company’s investment approach. It has no defined time horizon for each but hopes to own them for decades.
Simply put, its goal is to buy well and hold on.
It will seek to partner with competent and honest entrepreneurs or business owners who share with us a
community of interest. These individuals will have the privilege and burden of overseeing the distribution or
reinvestment of company cash flows, a key determinant of the rate at which our capital will compound over
time.
In order that this wealth creation accrues to us as owners, and is not competed away, each of our businesses
should have barriers to entry that are scarce and difficult to replicate. They should also operate with capital
structures and business models resilient enough to endure life’s inevitable vicissitudes.
We believe neither ‘risk’ nor ‘value’ is a number that can be found on a spreadsheet.
Given the sanctity of capital we see ‘risk’ as the likelihood of permanent capital loss. The careful selection
of each business the Company owns is its best protection against this outcome – even then we will make
errors of judgement. As long-term business owners we do not view asset price volatility, or illiquidity, as
risk. You should know in advance that it will not avoid large drops in the share prices of the companies it
owns. By understanding its businesses and management partners we hope to have the resilience to survive
these falls and the courage to take advantage of them.
We ‘value’ scarcity, resilience, adaptability, ingenuity, probity and competence. The Company will look to
own as much of this as possible for every portion of a business it acquires. Price volatility may provide it
with the opportunity to acquire a greater portion of this value relative to the price we are being asked to pay -
a welcome outcome.
https://www.valu-trac.com/administration-services/clients/dominium/VT%20Dominium%20Holdings%20Interim%20Report%202018.pdf
By chance, Lion Trust is featured in today's Mail article
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12717623/The-FTSE-350s-worst-performers-2023.html?ico=mol_desktop_money-newtab&molReferrerUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Findex.html
Many of the Investment funds I follow are sitting at multi year lows, the whole redemption thing is feeding on itself as funds sell assets to meet their obligations. Funds held by other institutions such as Lion Trust are in a worse position with both retail and institutional selling, Lion Trust for many years was highly converted by the likes of Buffettology which hold sizable stakes.
Hopefully a change on rates will see some of the declines reversed in 2024 for everyone.
What are investors thoughts on H" this year Sept IMC Q & A session was interesting, Jeff's sounded pretty confident when quizzed on figure need to for f/y.
H1 $5.6m which equated to 1% increase on 2022 H1, this leaves a whopping $10.3m for H2 to achieve f/y $15.9m guidance.
H2 - 2022 came in at $6.3m so adopting a more cautious approach I would suggest in the region of $8m is more realistic, therefore f/y 2023 would come in at $13.6m.
Even if they roll over some of the revenue into 2024 it would still equate to a very reasonable 15% growth on 2022 numbers.
Numlungu
Quite right about a seller who has been relentlessly dripping shares into the system. When the seller pauses, the shareprice creeps back up, so defo oversold.
In some ways it’s good that we lose weak holders with too much skin in the game. Also, I’m sure we have a few new retail holders to diversify the shareholder base.
It boils down to whether you see PHC as a good company with a future or a dud. For me it’s a great company with a hell of a future. I’m a LT buy and hold person so this is the Black Friday sales for me ( although I don’t want too many more).
Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-11-10/china-hungry-for-crops-amid-bad-weather-and-food-security-push
I sold out after the fiasco of a threat to leave LSE without explaining the alternative... Still following the company though; how much cheaper could it go as there seems to be a determined / distressed seller(s) slowly feeding more shares than the market can digest.
China buying up stocks of grain and soybeans means next years harvest can expect to be sold at higher prices so farmers may be prepared to invest more in inputs. Whether PHC can sell those inputs is another question but overall the market should see positive influences.
Be very difficult to regulate that
Agreed and we haven’t even started selling PHC949 for nematode control. This product is much anticipated. The weekly chart RSI is hugely oversold. Can’t go on forever; nothing wrong with the company.
Autumn statement on 22 Nov. Pundits saying ISA limit will be raised to £25k with the extra £5k having to be invested in London listed companies. British market could use a boost.
Agreed 2p, even if we take a conservative view on H2 for this year, company is valued at less than 2 x revenue.
Looks like some of the selling pressure is abating, now second largest holding in portfolio.
Yup, the exodus by investors is causing downward pressure on most funds, interest rates needs to reverse otherwise pensions and so forth are going to look dire for everyone.
Looks like Aviva Investors Invt. Fds. ICVC - UK Smaller Companies have been buying a few mill recently though 1pencil
Stifel have joined Cenkos on the sell side.
SVS Dowgate Wealth Funds ICVC - UK Small Cap Growth Fund have popped up as exiting, these guys were only recent buyers too (see earlier posts).
Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/%C3%A1ngel-mar%C3%ADn-931a5630_proact-activity-7127768401866858497-eulg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android
We are the representative of the AMC/AGRIMATCO group in Turkey, which operates in 50 countries in a wide geography from the Middle East to North Africa, from Eastern Europe to Russia, from the Balkans to China.
Seller gone.
Hope so. An air optimism has returned to the small cap market.
Seller gone it seems after weeks of selling probably fulfilled its redemptions
Took another 95k today bots
Yeah, nice to be buying at this price.
I see someone backed the truck up early this morning for 2m shares.
There’s no doubt we’re undervalued for a global, growing company but the valuation from Simply Wall Street (using a forward cash flow model) had me choking on my cornflakes.
Current price = UK 0.062
Fair Value = UK 1.67
96% Undervalued.
- I’m not trying to ramp, that’s what it says!
More realistic would be 22p-30p in the mid-term (2-3 years)- if we aren’t taken over by Syngenta in the meantime.
simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/aim-phc/plant-health-care-shares
Hope so bots been loading up here with nearly a million shares recently
Interesting.
I was wondering why PREzym was being sold just in Europe. It’s an excellent product, so great to see it moving into the Americas. Expect and RNS soon, lots of registration news pending.