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Overthinking my position again here but I want to canvas opinions from other LTH’s about how we win given the cards that appear to be on the table.
If it’s D4E then am I right in thinking the price is agreed with the banks and bond holders for a swap? The number of shares then determines the price per share but our holding is diluted by the number of shares added eg if the number of shares doubled, our holding is halved irrespective of the price per share agreed with the banks. So our price per share would drop from 22p to 11p. Is that correct?
Similarly if additional investment is agreed from certain shareholders or new investors, our shareholding and respective value is automatically reduced by the percentage of additional shares added as a result of the additional placing. Is that correct? If I’m reading the RNS correctly, it looks like PI’s are not being considered for any additional investment initial offering?
If either of these scenarios comes into effect as suggested by the RNS……our holding is diluted and the value of our holding goes down. Correct?
If this is the case, why are any of us still holding if a dilution of our holding is all but jnevtitanle? Wouldn’t it make sense to sell now and the. Buy back in when the D4E or placing is actioned?
Am I being stupid and missing something obvious?
I’m starting to think that the only reason for us to continue to hold is if there is a takeover or if by some miracle the EoY results are better than expected.
Thoughts?
If you’re still asking all of these infantile questions after these years then you should give up your gambling Vetrren.
That’s the take I have on it. For the first time in a few years I am completely out. Taken a loss as a LTH, but after last weeks RNS then who can trust the BOD to have the shareholders backs? They have a different priority and agenda it seems. No point in watching your equity whittle away day by day in the hope of a rabbit being pulled out of an hat. Apart from the backlog and expertise what would someone want to pay up for? May as well sit back and pick over the bones if the refinancing doesn’t come off or heaven forbid they start to lose contracts due to a worsening financial position. Keeping track of this as would love to feel confident enough to get back in but at the moment I got fed up compounding a loss.
Yes future does look bleak- but when this moves up it’s gonna move quickly up and fast. I am sure we will hear next week what the outcome is. DforE factored into current price etc. FFS if you have come this far why sell now!
Haven't a clue but find it hard to disagree with your assessment PFC.
The big short companies - OK, taken for granted they want the share price as low as poss - (seems strange that, so far, they haven't piled back in), but let's, for the moment at least, aasume that SS PFC isn't going to sink, then the shorters will at some point have to close their shorts. That means they will have to buy, big numbers. We saw what GLG closing their ssmall short did to the share price, so how much upwards pressure would that put on the price?
Dear, dear, really cluching at straws here!
Must admit it is now roulette wheel time- what a clusterf'''k
All I know is if I sell someone will come in with takeover, and if I hold the price will tank!!!!
Who else thinking the same?
How can D4E be factored into the current price? Surely the price will reduce by whatever the percentage of new shares is on day of issue, as will our holdings?
Not being argumentative, I just want to be clear about what will happen if D4E becomes a reality while I still have time to act.
It’s starting to make sense to me to sell now at 22p if my holding is going to halve when the D4 E is announced. Bailing out is the last thing I want but equally I don’t want to be a snowman sitting next to a fire watching myself melt.
Value of contracts not currently being realised in valuation.
Once balance sheet improved it would be.
One thing I am favouring is to hold on. I have decided I am going to go forward holding.
I have held thes shares since about 2104/5 'ish, have managed over the years to get my break even to just over 30p/share.
I don't believe they're going under , mistakenly or not, so having held for so long, and as long as they can maintain and grow order backlog, given another 4/5 years I think they will be north of 30p. I also think that a takeover approach is more likely once PFC have sorted the current f-u c-kup.
--Soooo gonna rest my brain now, relax and (try) stop worrying - it's only money after all!!!!
Vet
Very reluctantly I've sold at a loss, can't see a way out of this one!
My hoding was up a tad last Thursday before the board issued a pointless RNS sabotaging my and everyone's holding.
If the board are fighting us and the shorts too then we're doomed.
Gutted to be honest
Wait until results out first. We know they got giod progress this year and close some contacts . Income not as bad as it sound. The main poin in this company come from top CEO . He is play game and destroys it for his owe gain.
Sorry to hear that Steve, but don't beat yourself up over it - each to their own
It’s a tough call, FOMO being a big factor for LTH’s. I sold two days ago and if I’d held until today would be a good few grand worse off. A bird in the hand etc. whatever anyone decides it has to be their call, if you sell and the rabbit does indeed jump out of the hat then it would be gut wrenching but if you hold and the BOD trash the SP even further that too will be gut wrenching. The profit doesn’t exist yet neither does the loss but the equity is real and it’s your choice as to how you protect it, or not. I’m sitting on the cash for the timebeing and monitoring regularly, if it turns then I’ll miss the initial jump but as it’s always been about the medium to long term I will still end up making something back. At present I know for certain nothing is being chipped away at. As with most things in life whatever you do no looking back and don’t wallow in the regret,
U sell now veteran and then a bid comes the next day for 60p- how would u feel? How ever long it takes it’ll recover just do nothing and believe it’ll rise from the fire. Thats what am doing! DForE isn’t definite
I get your pain PFCvetran! I too am going around in circles with a 'do I or do I not sell'.
If I do, I'm sure positive news will surface and i'll kick myself and if I don't I will be melting alongside with you.
I'm half down on my investment and part of me thinks, let's cash in the chips and find a stronger neddy to put my dosh into and my other half says sit it out and take whatever if coming down the track. This is the only investment that's got me so confused..!
PFC.
Yes - there will be a dilution of shares. That doesn't mean the value of the shares dropped by the leve the dilution implies.
As others say, it may be semi, fully or even over priced in.
I posted earlier on this. Once the D4E is done, the debt is reduced and the backlog remains. It just depends on the level of dilution and perceived value of the backlog afterwards. So as per my earlier post, what is the MCap after financial restructure and how much of it will we then own.
Todays price reflects the oncoming dilution and big debt. Not may buyers and lots of risk. I took a small punt, but money I am prepared to lose. Thankfully, I got out from a much higher level with a small loss. Had I held til now, I'd have lost heaps!
As a holder it is trickier. Pure gamble either way IMHO. And I'm no trader or analyst. Partly expect to still lose the 5k I pumped in. But you never know. MCap could end up rising back towards it's peers, which even with a large dilution, could still leave me with a profit in coming yeqrs and from these low levels.
I know, I hear you Tony, I'm an idiot gambler! But plenty in reserve if I feel like averaging down if they get the debt fixed and it doesn't go private at that point.
Https://www.energyvoice.com/renewables-energy-transition/360795/former-petrofac-ceo-asfari-snaps-up-scots-offshore-wind-business/
Not sure I trust this guy, the RNS will have been run by him if not written by him inorder to get the price down for a cheap buy out. After which at some point he can list Venterra group and cash in with new shares. Hopefully he is honourable and not going to screw the LTHers and new ones just to enrich himself.
That is a narrative that is increasingly likely. This guy basically controls the group and I recon he is positioning himself for a take over. That last rns would searingly support that as an outcome
I'ld be up for paying into a fundraiser to put a contract out on him if he screws us all
3 years old.....
Clutching at Straws....
The SFO still on his trail.....
The problem with saying D4E is priced is that it’s not. Maybe the possibility has been priced in pushing this down but the massive dilution doesn’t get priced in until it happens. There’s a reason this is the most shorted stock. I guess the latest RNS was just a way if preventing more PIs from buying in at high prices. I lost all my gains here but got out with my shirt intact. I can’t believe there isn’t a better financing option than this. The have huge industry partners as well as long standing relationships in the middle east. It may all come good still and I hope it does, but it’s a huge risk.
Whatever it looks like the teens today or tomorrow.
15 previous low?
L2/3 very weak
I do feel that the BOD deliberately release the last RNS to thrash the share price so the dilution price of D4E will look more acceptable to the shareholders, probably between 10-15p agreed by bondholders.
Bond price up to 26.43p
Yeah I quite agree Bridgedogg, in a sense it was actually responsible of the BOD to prevent a backlash if more waded in.....the SFO situation and the ADNOC ban has hammered this company, it should been a red flag when they had to do a raise for the 77mill fine but I stupidly jumped in then also......anyone have any examples of a company returning back from a D4E to former highs...GLA
I had a small position here from a while ago, which I took the loss on today.
I am surprised that the SP has not dropped even lower and faster, after these recent updates.
I had planned to stick with it, but either the BOD are trying to frighten people out with what I see as some puzzling updates (something that I would not wish to be a part of, however indirectly), or perhaps this is just a lack of retail accepting the reality of the updates and thus further severe falls in the SP are imminent sooner or later.
A take out, even at the current price, seems extremely far fetched IMO, but of course time will tell and I could be wrong.
A shame, as I had liked the potential recovery story here. Had a few profitable trades along the way, and should have kept it that way, rather than leaving a few in the pot as an investment. Hey ho. GLA and I hope it comes good for those of you who are on the other side of the trade.