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I want to see what's in the ground before any sales talk.
Well said Kutzz! Let’s not underestimate what we actually have here. Let’s make a deal! A deal deal!!
Chart looking strong from these levels.
GLA
It was great to see the RNS news on the Senegal license renewal today. I believe I mentioned back in Feb as the clock ticked down, this would take time. Obviously, Orr & Mangem are entwined in a relationship, but first things first was to get the licenses renewed and over the line!!. Which the RNS today confirms!!
The key thing for me, when reading the RNS is this statement…..
“In accordance with the Senegalese Mining Code, the surface area of the Licence has been reduced by 25% and now stands at 354.5 kilometres squared. In order to retain tenure over the key prospects identified to date, in particular Faré and Madina Bafé, the Licence area has been split into two blocks as shown below. The new Licence is valid for a period of three years from 17 February 2024.”
I believe the highlight being, the license is now split into two blocks. So, if Mangem doesn’t have the funds or the desire to support or take the entire license, there are now more options. For instance ORR and Mangem could continue and develop Madina Bafé since that is closer to the Mangem Boto project.
This also opens options for Faré to be spun off which Tim has often spoken candidly about being it’s own incredible project. That could go to someone else, for a lot of value!!
The super interesting fact is…because of the renewal, the territory got reduced by 25%. This is very significant, keep doing nothing and renewing a few times and what do you have left? A real credit to ORR leadership for navigating this license renewal and keeping the crown jewels of the licenses (Faré and Madina Bafé) in the portfolio!!
When you look at the current MCAP of ORR. It shows we are way undervalued and as a reminder we have a leadership team that owns a significant part of this company!! It is often easy to criticize these guys when the SP dips but a lot of intelligence goes into keeping all these plates spinning!!
The last take over Tim was apart of was Reservoir minerals and that sold for $300m +
AIM a little higher. Take over @ £200m is 5p
Great point Hawaii. I first bought in at 1.16, then at 0.85 so have an average of 0.99. I'd take 2p buy out for 72m. Think everyone would be in profit at that point and the overwhelming majority of long term holders will have at least bagged once and many will have made life changing amounts.
Having said that, you could argue that we should be worth nearer the 100m mark given the price of gold at the moment, the sheer number of licences we have and the agreed funding by BCM reducing risk and boosting our potential over the next 2 years or so.
You would think we'd be a target in the next 2 or 3 months, otherwise 1p will be the starting point for negotiations!
No wonder it has been exceptionally hard to buy in any size today, I felt it was only a matter of time before ORR could be considered as a takeover target, after all Chesser Resources were acquired for $60m and ORR are right next door with a larger licence package.
Cameroon must be attracting interest from majors, ORR holds the largest licence package in country and have 1st mover advantage, links with the Government etc.
ORR looks a juicy takeover target and with retail holding most of the shares a large premium bid may well be accepted.
Even at 1p a share the company would only be valued at £38m !
After digging, here's what I've found - caveat - these are 'inferred' resources so are at the lowest confidence level, yet a critical first step in exploration...
Bibemi
- Currently 82.2% ownership
- 375,000oz @ 2.3 g/t
- Current drilling campaign to expand resource potential
Mbe
- Currently 90% ownership
- TBC size and grade, but looking like it is bigger than Bibemi
- Further exploration ongoing with BCM
Senala
- Currently 41% ownership
- 155,000oz @ 1.26 g/t Au
Assuming Mbe is similar size to Bibemi, running a comparison to the previous acquisitions...
Total current Oriole enterprise value = c.$63m
Or 3x where we are now.
Lastly, there could be more discoveries along the way, which seems likely from the previous drilling and narrative.
Just reading through an RNS for Cora Gold (gold miner in Senegal and other places), and they provided some interesting previous takeover figures for gold prospects in Senegal:
1. Chesser Resources purchased by Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. in May 2023 for US$60m, 860koz @ 1.77 g/t Au
2. Oklo Resources purchased by B2Gold Corp. in May 2022 for US$66m, 668koz @ 1.83 g/t Au
I'm trying to calculate the total koz of gold that Oriole has, and the grade... But should give an idea of enterprise value - plus, the gold price has increased 10-15% since these acquisitions.
US$2355 a good start to the week!
Licenses renewed for another 3 years. Another uncertainty removed great news 👏🏻
Great news, all looking very positive on few fronts
RNS landed this morning but not showing on here https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/ORR/senala-update-licence-renewed-for-second-term/16411050
I can see a flood of cash coming in here over the next week , new tax year/ISA etc.
This could be the next Greatland Gold by way of share price appreciation.
I saw a tweet on Friday mentioning the ORR was significantly undervalued from a fellow who bought in ahead of the move from .10p to the .50ps, this guy is well followed on X.
Still no TR1 from Lanstead suggests they are in a pickle and have probably sold far too many shares, their efforts to contain the SP have been totally demolished by the gold price rise.
I would not be surprised to see the SP trading in the .40p's by the end of the week.
ISA’s renew tomorrow.
Be interesting to see if we get a steady influx of buys this week. Topping up those tax free gains on what is set to be a good year for Oriole
This is part of the problem of seeing AIM as a source of income through placings, Marketing gets forgotten but no business on the planet does well without good promotion
Orr has good potential now, and that's obvious. The reason the share price won't rise is because there is no volume. Volume comes with popularity. Popularity comes from awareness. Awareness comes from Marketing. The people that will invest in Orr will come from all walks of life. If they stick to their appalling Marketing approach, noone will ever know they exist. Instead we'll have to wait for RNS readers to catch on instead and maybe someone who has an audience might talk about them. The point is, they could find and talk to those audiences now, but instead we just get videos on channels noone watches
Can't think of a more undervalued mining exploration company and one with so much potential and without any headwinds. Plus probably the most investor friendly. Tim and Bob are decent blokes. Here to a new mining province discovery
Finishes the week at US$2330.
A decent week! Comparisons with GGP will drive the SP higher and why not? I note Tim's other company MTL keeps rising - wouldn't surprise me if they attempt a takeover of ORR but WTFDIK? MTL is currently valued at £107m and I'd hate to see ORR sold for peanuts. But this is AIM! Interesting that Lanstead owns a chunk of ORR! SP needs to rise substantially before a takeover offer so get buying!
A decent day, a nice rise. Also some good debate from fellow forum folk this week. I value all opinions and to be fair everyone is cordial and I respect that!
As a core we want the best for the company. Comparisons with GGP are just that, speculation. What we do know is some of these assets could be ticking time bombs we also have a dedicated leadership team, who tend to skip the BS and tell it like it is. Tim is a bit like the religious zealot who stands outside a supermarket in Aberdeen on a wet winter(when doesn’t it rain in Aberdeen) Saturday morning, trying to convince disinterested folk that the day of reckoning is coming. Preaching the gospel of Cameroon. Well… it looks like the day of reckoning for ORR could be coming soon!!!!
Buckle up folks 😀
Atm
New tweet..
https://x.com/OrioleResources/status/1776262941530046563