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Perhaps surprisingly, 342 ultimately survived intact despite a fairly intense and slightly above average volume day: https://invst.ly/14u2tk
I guess I wasn’t alone in profitably recycling a few shares driven down by the shorts in the morning and then topping back up again at the same price just before 4pm - thanks guys!
The level of confidence short sellers have here makes you think they are privy to undisclosed bad news.
The chart on the short tracker says the level is the highest since 2018.
Set up to accumulate 330p & 325p tomorrow.
Just noticed short position increases to 7.31, anyone know what does that mean? Thanks
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/
Need a close near 348p to see some upside tomorrow...ATB! Short play in play
Reloaded
Market blip, back to the normal trading pattern...
Makes a change from poop and scoop
Interesting pump & dump.
Hopefully some good news. Let see tomorrow reaction.
Heading back below 340 p.
Been short down again so quickly.
In at 336 out at 360+ lol ty
Well Kitty is back - will he take on some UK shorts?
Could actually be linked to the GME situation. D1 Capital were previously exposed to GME (nearly blew them up with a 4bn loss) so they could be having to reduce overall risk across their short positions.
What a surge. When the tech value is seen here this will go bananas. FTSE all time high while this sits near 52 week low. It will explode higher soon.
I have to say Phoenixy that I doubted we'd see 350 again today, but was buying from 335 so I'm happy you were right. Very surprised, but very happy. Just wished I'd bought more!!
Yepp.
Yeah Boyo, given the swings it would be silly not to trade them but I do small amounts around the core holding.
Having said this I will only trade a stock if I am prepared to hold it long term.
I still see myself as building a position here though.
Added a bit at 335p. Now 346p & rising. JPM would be loving this and picking up the stock . DYOR
Short squeeze in US most shorted stocks in play currently with GME up 110% today.. keep an eye guys, OCADO could explode to the upside as the 2nd most shorted stock here in UK....ATB to long term holders and F2ck the shorters!!
Fair points Sangijuelas - appreciated.
I would prefer to hold OCDO long term but, given the volatility and erratic performance, I think any investor is obliged to manage their investment - which therefore involves some trading. So, in short (not a pun) I will trade if it seems prudent or beneficial to do so. Today's continuation of a 20+p drop from 358 is an example where action may be desirable. I do think that if OCDO is only viewed through the rose tinted 'tech and robotics is the future' lens then it's easy to overlook some of the fundamental flaws that VP is accused of overstating. I'm as neutral and objective as I can be about OCDO - the warning there is that, once you are invested (as I currently am), there is a natural reluctance to accept observations that place the target sp lower than you'd like to see. Ultimately, what will be will be and, like when you're driving along contentedly, you may sometimes find you have to slam on the brakes or hit the accelerator. ATB
Important to understand that the earnings profile of a typical module (for Ocado) is hugely loss making upfront, but very profitable once the module is mature. By my estimates, 17 modules should become mature in 2024 (meaning that the CAPEX spending is complete), while 9 modules "go live" meaning they begin to generate sales share for Ocado.
As a result, I estimate about £195m of profit for the solutions business this year, which could be the moment Ocado proves its model to the market. Looks like we're due to receive 0 new module orders this year, which is a worry going forward, however the overcapacity hangover from Covid should give way in the near term as demand catches up.
Investors in tech don't want it because of the Retail side and investors in supermarkets are like where are the profits and dividends?
And yet you have a company selling their tech whilst also having generated significant experience of working with it themselves and through partners.
There is value in this. Also in the Ocado brand itself and their customer data. The data is likely to be very valuable as it's for more affluent customers and now that Cookies are due to be phased out, marketing companies are going to have to source data more from the likes of Ocado and the other supermarkets.
Also Boyo as I understand it you are looking to trade whereas I am buying it to hold. I am more interested in where they will be in 5-10 years time. I think inflation has meant that supermarkets globally have been able to make high profits from their sales alone. Now that inflation is coming down they will have to start looking at their costs and efficiency.
I think Ocado is currently valued rigidly according to models developed to assess the success of pure play retailers. They are likely to be in a category to be assessed this way. So rather than discounting the retail side they ignore Solutions as it doesn't fit these valuation models.
Obviously anyone buying this over £12 needed their head examined at the time.
When I try to value Ocado I ignore the Retail side completely.
My focus is on the Solutions revenue, which is projected to be £500m this year. I then apply a sales to price ratio of 8, which is equivalent to the Autostore valuation giving a market cap of £4bn. This seems reasonable given that Autostore growth has stalled and Ocado still seems to be increasing revenue. If they get the Coles NSW site up and running in the next couple of months this should be a decent boost along with Sobey's sales growth and getting Madrid open in the summer.
So I feel that it's currently worth about 25% more. The unknown factor is whether they really can attract non grocery companies to Ocado Intelligent Automation.
For me the signs are positive. I have been following the posts from OIA on LinkedIn and one featuring automated battery swap got a high number of likes compared to other posts.
Some likes are from Ocado staff but there are also a decent amount from employees from the likes of Johnson and Johnson and Tesco's.
What about being demoted from ftse100?