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OWLS, you're comment was simply nonsense. Here it is as a reminder
"1. Don't try and time the market. 2. Don't listen to any amateur on a forum."
On the one hand you're saying there is no value in anything posted on a forum, on the other you're advising people not to time the market', that in itself is an oxymoron. You're posting advice on a forum, while simultaneously saying that any advice posted on a forum is nonsense.
Worse than the fact you're talking nonsense, you're also belittling much of the hard work being shared by some of the knowledgeable posters on this forum. I might agree, that timing the short term ups and downs of a market is very hard and very likely to lead to losses. If I do that (normally due to boredom), I make a lot of 'errors' and it's not where I make my money. I might also agree, that it's wise to know your way around bb's and markets yourself rather than make decisions based upon the advice of bb participants. If you don't understand a trade, then you should not be in it as you are very likely to end up stressed and thrown out of the trade at an inappropriate time. You need to understand it for yourself and have some conviction in it. If you don't understand, you can't have conviction, if you have no conviction you're probably going to lose money or at best it's a straight gamble
Is the sp still dropping? It briefly hit 335 intraday about a fortnight ago but has averaged 350 since. Indeed a trading 15’ view shows the pressure lifting slightly https://invst.ly/14ox-4 .
Truth is that it’s no longer dropping unless and until it goes below 335 again, which could be less likely given the above picture, which is showing less time spent below 350 and even potential for another visit to 387 if the pattern repeats.
The overall position is rather better than it was last June at a similar sp but prior to the AS settlement, the improving half year statement and the AMZ takeover nonsense that clouded the scene for the rest of the year.
There’s still plenty of cash and the earliest convertible bond maturity is over 18 months away in December 2025 which, like all such facilities, is expected to be refinanced as a matter of routine, given the latest reliable revenue and earnings. There’ll be plenty of warning if things are going off track - so no need to panic just yet.
Would dropping out of FSE100 be a bad thing? The FTSE 250 shares historically provide more growth whilst FTSE 100 shares typically provided more income (full of low growth, dividend payers). Which fits OCDO’s profile better?
Investors who piled into this as a tech stock probably didn’t know their software from their hardware and thought it was either like ARM or like Amazon, so it’s not surprising if they had a shock seeing it drop from £30. It’s not going back to that level anytime soon but last year's 342 was probably a fair bottom - whilst 2.50 only represents a potential threat whilst the sp remains below 350, which may become less frequent as discussed above.
Revenue and earnings were up last year and losses are a tax technicality based on amortisation of past cap-ex investment. So, much of the worst may be over.
STUPMY, I think you are overthinking my comment. "Don't try and time the marker" relates to assuming when the whole market goes up or down, not individual stocks.
I figured it might be a weak comparison as I don't follow those 2 companies closely. Shell has done well. I can't remember where it was 10y ago though. I know it's been up and down.
Stupmy: regarding your comment about BP as an example of UK share performance (this post is totally off topic regarding OCDO!)
I suggest you use Shel instead, for the simple reason that BP has had a tricky history since Macondo in 2010, its Green policy, its Russian assets and, more recently a dreadful Q3 2023 result which included a US project write down. They’ve also had major CEO issues and there’s been a lot of TO speculation. There may now be some upside to the share if they’ve got their act together again. Don’t forget also that Green issues affect companies more on this side of the pond.
Over 9m shares traded yesterday and just 3.4m today, yet the volatility was on a different scale: https://invst.ly/14otla (15min view of the two days)
Yesterday’s off market auction hoovered up a lot of shares that might otherwise have been sold below 350, which is interesting in the context of shorting action.
I guess It’s not surprising that there was some activity above 370 today, although the close ended at a more rational 355. The sp is certainly not clinging to that 342 bottom at the moment and the second attempt to break through it has failed: https://invst.ly/14ou2r (daily view). Will there be a third? I guess that partly depends on who acquired the bulk of yesterday’s 9m, especially the near 8m after hours , and what their objectives and targets are.
Yes P, I thought it might happen so happy to have dropped some (wish I'd dropped a few more in fact, but no-one can see the future so it's often about playing likely scenarios. I took a good profit on shares, good profit on leveraged positions (all closed) and rationalised what was actually a slightly large position. I'm now in a position to buy back if I think its appropriate. I'm happy with what I've done so far.
Stumpy,
The spike was just sold off or got shorted gain by 20p. We are almost where we were before the US payroll data.
At the rate if this sp dropping & debt refinancing looming & drop out FtSe100, suspect Steiner will be left with no choice to list in US to prop up sp , unless he is contented with his 15 mln bonus.
Waiting to load up sub 335p.
Join the short from 376 to 375 p repeatedly as clearly pump and dump tactics. Quick £ for under 2 hours . Next level pump and dump at 392p as 379p/380p as seen today.
Suspect back to 340+ next week.
Lonlonuk aka shorter...you are clueless....given daily volume and size of trades you cannot pump and dump a FTSE 100 you clown....back to the AIM stocks for pumping and dumping. *Clue because you are clueless....search for news released in the US today.
It's grim to be honest. It's the reason I sold up, sick of the same cycle.
That would be great, but looks hopelessly optimistic to me. Amazing how fast people forget the downward pressure there has been here. I guess if there was a good short squeeze we could see good upside, but I'd be hoping for 414-415 and reassess there if we see it.
The usual pump and dump. Back to 350p next week.
Yeah I posted that on here a couple of weeks back. Ocado's priority for generating revenue is increasing module uptake at existing sites so sales increases like that makes that more likely.
Ocado #OCDO breaking a 4 months downtrend. Decent volume last 2 days and channel break indicates a run to 560p. Stock can be squeezy. We are along for the ride now. Expecting 400p+ next wk.
https://x.com/alignresearch/status/1786381740094656955?s=46
Posted April 30th, my view of what might be likely "I'm wondering about a bounce to 375-380 area." That doesn't mean that I believe this move is over, but there is a real risk we'll come back off so I did rationalise.
Original Post for reference
https://screenrec.com/share/SfrgZ05wFb
Easy.
ASAP.
Takeover coming imo.
The dollar has tumbled by a cent against the pound, as April’s weak jobs report fuels hopes of an early cut to US interest rates.
You have been in the doldrums for too long Ocado.....time to rerate over the coming weeks. GLA
Good.
That's almost ironic pheonixy. US flies up (not seen the data, but they liked it) and OCDO flies up with it!! I closed 25% at a good profit to rationalise what was too large a position built too quickly. I'll buy back happily if we drop back to 348 or below. It's not certain we will, but if this rise is not OCDO specific (I don't think it is) then it is easily possible that this will come back down simply due to market mechanics.
Oh dear...do you wanna talk about it?
You win some you lose some. We move on.
LOL at your attempt to recover your short loss Monopoly man. Not sure too many will be following your lead.
Climbing. Got to be a takeover shout while it's at these levels imo