Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I've just had a quick look at your posting history OWLS and so many of your posts are about timing the market (or not being able to do that despite admitting that you should have done) that you're last post on this board is truly laughable. In fact, I didn't see a post that held any value at all.
There's no such thing as 'not timing the market', even professionals do it. Everytime they believe a market represents value, it's being timed. the only thing that comes close to 'not timing the market' is a tracker fund. If you'd used one over the last 40 yrs it would have worked on the US500 and not worked on the Nikkei. You absolutely have to time your markets. Whether that is by fundamental understanding of a companies value at a specific time or using TA/charts or better still both. Do you really think the likes of Buffet randomly enter markets?
Also, if you use a tracker and it works let's say on the US500, you'd earn a lot less than the likes of buffet timing his entries on the likes of Apple.
1. Don't try and time the market.
2. Don't listen to any amateur on a forum.
I've been watching this for a while waiting for that 'good time'. Usually, i'm not massively fussed, you'll never buy the bottom and sell the top unless you're very lucky. But, with this one, i'm waiting for either some good news, and large volume coming into it, or the more likely scenario, that it gets booted out of the ftse and so decides to list on the nyse.
Incidently, the uk is in a very precarious position rn with companies not interest in listing here, if shell ups ship (due to the lack of brown envelopes) then its downhill from here. Certainly a turning point.
Anyway i'm not sure what happens to existing shares when the re list elsehwere, i'm guessing its more a positive than negative, so once i work that out, i'll be buying when the slipout of the ftse, but before they re list.
Interesting to see that raised volume 15 mins of trading yesterday that I was talking about, seems to have established a 346 resistance level for traders currently. Let’s see if it becomes more significant. https://invst.ly/14npy8
RG, no-one can see into the future. You have to feel your way around what is happening to this market. If you're 85% down, you've been wrong for a long time so I get that you would like the views of others, but I'm not sure it'll be helpful. Maybe you need to wait longer and try not to be speculative. I'm a bit speculative (sometimes snatch at things), but if you're sitting on a big loss, you maybe need more certainty (not that there is every certainty. Why not look for a 123 breakout from a low, i.e. low, high, higher low, higher high (that last higher high is your breakout). It's not a bad indication of a possible trend change.
"I'm sure you told us that OCDO is ‘no longer an expanding business with a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech….’"
Yes, my position is very clear (from a LTH perspective). FYI - I am down 85% now.
So, before realising this huge loss, my only hope of salvage is to leverage down at some mythical low point.
(e.g. Before people know Ocado is going stateside?)
I'll rephrase the question if I may,
When would the collected wisdom on here "pile back in". Should the decision be share price driven, or as a result of a possible event passing? (For me it is quite simple, When Ocado can deliver to my home address - it can't atm)
I'm sure you told us that OCDO is ‘no longer an expanding business with a static inflexible solution bathed in old tech….’
Have you changed your mind? Because, unless you have, there's never going to be a good time or price.
Certain patterns are probably very familiar to the guys who day-trade OCDO. And sometimes the moves even standout to me.
Like today, when the biggest volume of the day (2) landed just as the sp broke through the falling trend (1) just after lunch:
https://invst.ly/14m-ic Why would someone looking to offload wait through the morning for the price to fall and then sell just as it starts to recover and break upwards again? It isn’t a smart selling move unless the objective is to use the power of volume to limit the price and drive it back down.
Later on, a little bit more volume also helped nearer the close too, helping the price to a nice low going into the auction,
Just imagine if you had happened to sell around 7k of shares during that last 15 minutes (at, say, 16.28.24) for £25.31k knowing that you might somehow buy them back just after the UT (at, say, 16.36.23) for a bit more - like £24.7k. That would have been an easy £580 in less than ten minutes wouldn’t it? Not big time stuff but OCDO is perfect for it - you couldn’t do that so easily with Shel or BP. That example was purely hypothetical, of course, and I’m absolutely sure the transactions I referred to were not connected.
Boyobach
Thanks...yes I agree with your post ....
Musk regarding Tesla : " Any manager who retains more than three people who don’t obviously pass the excellent, necessary and trustworthy test” should resign"
maybe that is needed a bit here .... some more cost cutting to improve margins and achieve those cash targets
The FED may now set the tone for the next SP move .... but... the H1 Results are becoming clearer in terms of making some key figure predictions ..
What is the collected wisdom of when to buy in - At 240 perhaps?
That’s a useful and relevant set of information Pokerchips.
Yes: I think the bulk of the cap-ex spend on Tech R&D should have been done by now and the spend on CFC’s will be largely according to demand but will include an ongoing maintenance/update element..
I haven’t seen any additional Tech spend guidance but I would assume that the ‘£34.7m to technology projects (FY22: £26.5m)’ contained In your post would cover it and it would only get increased if there was a clear business justification. I’m sure those budgets would have been rigorously set by the start of the year, hence outlined fairly precisely in those FY23 figures.
Once you’ve developed a product ready for sale then nearly all of the development tech spend is done. There’ll be ongoing R&D to ensure the product is updated and improved as needed but the heavy lifting has been done and they should then target R&D in a strategic (sales orientated) way. In terms of selling the existing systems/products it’s simply a matter of building and installing them according to demand: no demand = no manufacturing or installation costs (beyond the core team employed full time - who possibly support existing clients anyway when they are not too stretched).
I’d be very surprised if VP’s Cash Reserve depletion scenario comes to pass because net cash outflow is reducing at a reasonable and controllable rate
TS (along with the other founders) is an ex GS banker isn’t he? If he was a Tech Guy I’d be less confident - only because the technology can become the main goal for them.
Boyobach
following on with regards cash needs , towards the end of the FY Report ..it states
" Contracts placed for future capital expenditure but not provided for in the financial statements are as follows: "
" Of the total (£105m) capital expenditure committed at the end of the period, £66.5m relates to new CFCs (FY22: £232.4m), £2.3m to existing CFCs (FY22: £1.3m), £nil to fleet costs (FY22: £7.6m) and £34.7m to technology projects (FY22: £26.5m)."
so does that indicate in itself the lowering of CAPEX for committed infrastructure....?
Do you have any 2024 Guidance figure on the TECH spend ??
....again, was a large amount of the requirement spent in 2023 meaning far less now needed in 2024?
I absolutely agree Pokerchips and in trying to dismiss the notion of cash reserves being depleted in an uncontrolled way (ie cash burn) I missed the opportunity to emphasise that the cash was used in a planned way to invest in key aspects of the business. Although VP would have seen the word investment used in the Financial Statement and understood this, but AquarianAge possibly hadn't.
And I also agree that many people are missing the point about the pre-tax 'Loss' including amortised costs (like the cash just invested).
Thanks for pointing that out.
Ha! It was, of course just over a week ago in April, not March, when 342 was the go-to bottom at reasonable pace, with a 335 overshoot at one point.
Time flies when you are in trading view.
The drop below nominal support line 350, isn’t too much of a surprise and the trend to 342 got the usual steeper branch added today:
15minute trading chart at 2pm: https://invst.ly/14mwwl
What has surprised me a bit has been the relative slowness of the drop. In March, 342 was the go-to bottom at reasonable pace, with a 335 overshoot at one point.
The return seems more reluctant this time around. Perhaps that indicates that support is firming up. I think the shorts will give us an indication.
But, yes, if it gets pushed hard enough (even though I don't think the bad management and refinancing narrative actually stacks up) I can see a bargain price approaching.
Next stop 340p , then break 335p to set new lows. Sub 300p inevitable as no good news. Shorters paradise.
Bad management, high debts refinancing cost. Ft250 inevitable this value SP eroding everyday.
Boyobach
outside of any argument about share prices ....
You could argue that a lot of " cash burn" is used to enrich( or whatever word) the company ....as a result of R&D investment ( + tax rebate) , future non invoiced revenues ( currently a book liability) and accumulated Tax losses as a result of bottom line "losses"
so... I personally would use the term "cash investment" rather than the commonly used term "cash burn"
Of course this "investment" isnt shown within share prices generally , as terms like "burn" and "loss" are always taken in a fully negative way
Sorry, I tend to associate significant and continuing reduction of cash reserves with cash burn.
I apparently made the same mistake as AquarianAge (Considering the rate at which Ocado burns through cash...)
If the cash outflow continues to halve every year, then the picture would be very different. And with all the hard development work done and CFCs earning revenue, that doesn't seem an unrealistic prospect to me.
Yes, net debt doubled in 2023. Could go even higher in 2024...
Post about Ocado Automated Storage and Retrieval liked on LinkedIn by an Argos logistics manager.
She has a recommendation on LinkedIn written by the Coles Head of CFC Operations.
Fluff with no substance of course but Argos owner Sainsbury's have been starting to make more investment in warehouse automation.
" Debt has doubled this year. "
VP
I think you mean last year and NET Debt ( as a result of a drop in cash) +86%
Gross Debt remained pretty much the same
"Gross debt (including lease liabilities) at the period end was £1,959.9m (FY22: £1,905.1m), with net debt* at the period-end of £1,075.1m (FY22: £577.1m) "
Ocado is in 114th position currently
https://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
Are you assuming that main shareholders never loan out their stock to Hedge Funds?
The thread is about Ocados cash reserves. 443m was spent last year leaving less than 2 years of reserves left at that spending rate. Debt has doubled this year.
Cash raise in around a year's time imo.