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I think everything you've said makes sense, Boyo but as impulsive people often to, I've bought back to my original intended position. I closed the last of the previous position at b/e at 367ish. I'm actually in profit now at 357!! But that can change fast, I don't need to tell you that. I'm wondering about a bounce to 375-380 area.
Charts are pointing to hitting above 360 today. Could be time to invest for long term.
Give yourself a break Stupmy.
If OCADO turns around it won’t be a big deal if you miss the absolute bottom. Better to accumulate as it rises than chase it by averaging down (that’s a mugs game).
The current sp may appear to be at rock bottom but it’s a volatile stock with lots of risks and a high short interest that isn’t reducing. This morning’s opening hour wasn’t great was it? If it breaks below 340 it could dive a good bit further.
So my advice would be to step back, take a break, including from this board, keep a more casual eye on the trends and, if you are familiar with it, the 8,21 daily EMA cross indicator. If you are looking for the long term then don’t watch the trading charts until you are actually ready to buy - they can help optimise the price on the day but at other times they can become an obsessive focus of attention.
Also keep an eye on the BlackRock short position - they are smart re OCDO and they haven’t reduced yet.
It's an investment trust type company.
They say the NAV per share is about 660p but carrying an enormous discount
Https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=GROW&share=Molten-Ventures
Was ftse250 before demotion
Is it US listed? GROW global investors Inc.?
Not something I've followed Sangi. I tend to focus on a small number of companies and wait for what I see as an opportunity. If I get time, I'll take a look and thanks already for the heads up.
I mentioned GROW on here the other day when at about 250 as showing some unexplained movement. I don't do charts but I imagine it must have an interesting one over the last 12 months. Lots of swings up and down. Up to 273 today.
I've started buying some shares. I think we'll see some upside soon.
Ocado made operational profits of 54.2m last year. The 403m pre-tax loss you may be talking about includes 405m of depreciation, amortisation and impairment, which would include software and hardware development capex spent in previous years that is split over a period to offset tax.
I'm really stuggling to make a decision on the price action. I'm somehow feeling the upside is starting to become more likely, but the indicators I use are very mixed. I'm a quite impulsive person so I have to be very careful with these situations. The right thing to do, is to wait, but I always imagine that I can catch a sharper bottom or that I'll miss out on some of the upside when it turns (if it turns). As I said I've started entering long positions on my 'canary' account and I've added this morning. I've been close to buying shares, although fewer than previously
I'm going to struggle to resist for much longer
Kroger actually has a new spoke opening in May 24, but let's just ignore that as it doesn't fit with our agenda.
VP, did you copy and paste that from your post the other day?
They seem very similar.
Losses stem from ongoing investment in R&D.
One of the partners who have paused new CFCs is Ocado Retail, which is part of the group so they are pausing paying development fees to themselves.
They are now back over 75% capacity at the existing sites.
Kroger closed spokes they set up and ran themselves. Nothing to do with Ocado as they run the CFCs and managing delivery operations is Kroger's responsibility. The modules at the CFCs will have been drawn down and still have to be paid for by Kroger.
The Walmart article you quote is not representative of the full range of investments Walmart has made across their business in automation. They have invested in and partnered with a number of leading automation companies like Symbotic.
My original point was what are the big UK supermarkets doing to automate in contrast to the likes of the US, Germany, Japan and Korea.
Ocado probably prefer to describe themselves as a tech company as calling themselves a robotics company is probably too narrow. It doesn't really account for their own software packages that they have developed etc
And automation is probably a much better word to use than robotics.
But by keep analysing them as if they were a pure play online supermarket and applying a valuation multiple in line with Tesco's rather than say Amazon's doesn't do anyone any favours.
£394 mill of losses in the recent Ocado group year end results.
The market will stomach the losses whilst new contracts are being regularly signed. However when the new deals slow then the spotlight focuses on any issues within the company. Currently existing 2 main partners have paused commissioning new CFCs. Theres a costly large overcapacity at Ocado retail caused by overoptimistic expansion. Spokes at Kroger closing. Not an issue for some on this board. A clear red flag for me and others.
Whilst there are no new contracts signed and existing partners are pausing ordering further CFCs then the downwards pressure on the share price continues.
Should get closer to £500m on Solutions for 2024 as 15-20% growth forecast on 2023 figure of £420m.
Some £360m of that was from recurring revenue as in the fees and cut of sales from existing CFCs.
Worth noting Boyo how Walmart have filed a few more patents for robots than Ocado:
Ocado may not have used the word ‘robot’ as much in patents because some of them may have wider application.
Walmart’s robots (supplied by Brain Corp) were more like Daleks and weren’t a great success:
https://retailwire.com/discussion/walmart-inventory-bots-flopped-will-sams-succeed/#:~:text=In%20November%20of%202020%2C%20Walmart,the%20employees%20working%20the%20shelves.
On its website, Ocado Group defines itself as: A global, technology business redefining ecommerce, fulfilment and logistics in online grocery and beyond.
Robotics isn’t mentioned in this defining sentence, https://www.ocadogroup.com/our-business/about-us/
As shareholders, we must currently accept that the Group’s financial statements don’t reflect that image, with Technology only providing around 15% of Group Revenue but a healthy 30% of profits. An analysis of the Group as a whole inevitably involves the Retail and Logistics segments and some analysts will do a better job than others. Anyone who focuses on the declared Loss figure without grasping that it reflects amortised development costs rather than a cash outflow will be getting the wrong impression - it’s a mistake that I’ve previously made.
Agreed and it's the likes of Clive Black driving UK companies stateside.
It's not as though the tech investment isn't showing decent revenues (over £400m forecast for 24), the UK commentators have zero understanding or patience with tech, hence why more are listing elsewhere
"If anyone can make the SP £29 I’ll be very happy - I would be delighted to give them the bonus"
Share price performance is one thing. However, I think such a bonus should only be rewarded when the company is making big net income profits and generating lots of cash in excess of it's operating costs. As I have mentioned in previous posts, I fear that if Ocado fails to finally make a profit within the next two years it will run out of money.
One of the reasons ARM chose to relist on the US market rather than the UK one was the greater depth of knowledge and understanding of it's business they would get from US analysts. No doubt they anticipated the sneering comments they would get from the likes of Clive Black complaining about "enormous losses" whilst making ongoing investment in R&D.
I mean with Ocado is it really that surprising that a high tech robotics company needs to keep reinvesting to stay ahead in an industry with incredibly fast moving developments in new technology?
FT article on the AGM quotes Clive Black from Shore Capital to complain about the incentive scheme.
All well and good but again Clive is very clearly an analyst specialising in supermarkets, with many news items quoting him on the likes of M&S, Aldi and the rest.
Don't think his understanding of building a high growth tech business from scratch will be that great. It would be interesting to know if he could answer fairly basic questions about the Solutions business.
If anyone can make the SP £29 I’ll be very happy - I would be delighted to give them the bonus - at least we know someone is gonna be pulling out the stops to make that happen - thank phuc
Automation is inevitable
I should say .. "more" automation seems inevitable .... and competition is so strong that cutting costs and increasing efficiency is a "must-have" these days
AI forecasting tools are becoming a "must-have" too
Sang
Automation is inevitable ...customers have ever increasing expectations, and labour is getting more and more expensive and arguably less productive ...and yes...retirement of Boomers and falling birth rates ...adds to the inevitable situation
Oh yes I am. Just look at all the air-con needed.
It would take a continent full of PDP8's to come close to that processing power: that would look impressive but size isn't everything.
Software and platforms have improved massively but how much of that core tech did Amazon create and build from scratch? Or are the hardware and operating systems essentially off-the shelf?
But OCDO needed to develop proprietary hardware and software unique to their tech product. Who has a Blackberry these days? Amazon have never attempted to be unique . Universality usually wins unless it's really bad. But don't talk to me about Apple - persisting with something non-standard but technically simple to use in a mass market, ties people to your product and, if you keep it fashionable, you can charge what you like and they'll feel obliged to buy a new one every couple of years because it's hard for them to change.