Member Info for AquarianAge

"Steiner gets to walk away with his millions, leaving a company to flounder...he should have gone 5 years ago

Yet another failed CEO in the get rich club."

Yes, TS has enriched himself massively over the years and I have been very critical of him in my previous posts. Having said that, he still has a substantial holding of over 20m shares. That's not nothing and demonstrates a modicum of skin in the game in spite of all the grifting.

' "Is this company really worth just over a billion? With the retail, all the partnerships, ip, customer shopping data etc. Really?"

You cant ignore the fact that it has never made any profit and there is minimal (if any) prospect of it making any profit for years to come. '

I guess we shall see. Just a few years ago Ocado had a market cap of £20bn! And there was no shortage of investors willing to throw money at this company when the share price was almost £30. There was mega euphoria here on these boards - I remember it all as if it were yesterday. Sentiment is a peculiar thing.

It closed I think at $160 (and is about $166 in after market trading) and up 20%. I don't think this has yet crossed over here so I'd expect a decent share price rise here on Monday morning. It will also be interesting to see what % of the SMT portfolio SpaceX now represents and how much the managers will trim. SMT would then be sitting on a nice pile of cash that it can invest into new ventures and/or boost existing holdings or maybe put aside for a rainy day a la Berkshire. I think the upcoming OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will simply strengthen the positive feedback loops and momentum in an already overheated sector. Value investors are losing their minds right now when they look at current valuations - well, I think they will be losing their minds even more over the coming months. However, they will be vindicated come 2028.

“Aquarian - DJT certainly equates stock market performance with his personal success. So he’ll do all he can to keep indices buoyant through his second term…”

Absolutely he will and so far he has got his way on this. However, I think he will eventually lose his Midas Touch. Whilst many investors are jumping on this current hot momentum bandwagon (and I guess I myself am guilty to a degree) there are some who are playing this very shrewdly and preparing knowing that beneath the exuberance there are many flashing warning signs.

For example, when I look at Berkshire Hathaway’s latest 13F filing (as of 31 March 2026) it is interesting to note that it has a cash pile of almost $400bn! - against an investment portfolio worth almost $325bn.

I personally think this current bull market has further to run (until 2028 as per my last post), but BH will be in a very enviable and unique position when this all does unwind. Historically, they have often had the last laugh…

It's of course a fool's errand to make predictions, but something deep in my gut sees this current market momentum around AI and other emerging and growing technologies lasting all the way until 2028 - or more specifically until the last few months before the end of DJT's current term. That will be the inflection point when things will start to get messy and go badly wrong for the good ol' USA. All imho of course.

"We are going to need another "Musk" for the next generational move, these exceptional people are a rare occurence. Love them or hate them, they do make the world turn around."

I think over the next 5-10 years we are going to have a whole new generation of innovative and visionary entrepreneurs that are going to come out of nowhere. I think over the next 20 years plus we are going to experience a golden period of innovation. Not just in AI and its exponential evolution, but also in other new and emerging technologies. I think quantum computing is going to be a massive industry and I think 3D/4D printing is also going to be a huge industry - there was a lot of hype around it 12-13 years ago and then it went through this winter period but I can see it expanding and in conjunction with AI, robotics and quantum computing it will become an important component in the rapid technological change that the world is going to experience in the coming years.

Up around 30% or so since its 52 weak low. Certainly the huge rise in the share price of Vale over that period has been a big tailwind and is the largest holding in the etf at just over 10%. Also a decent size holding in Petrobras and some of the largest banks in Latin America. Still good value despite the rise and I think the dividend is currently around 4%.

"Run your profits."

I would generally agree. However, with commodities sometimes what goes up...

"It amazes me how something worth 291p is worth 700p 6 weeks later?!!? I should have put all my cards on it!"

It can also go back to sub 300p in no time! This is an unbelievably volatile share. I see also from the recent director dealings that some of the board of directors have been playing these wild swings like pros by selling large tranches of shares at the current high end of the range.

"I wonder what it is about Ocado that seems to bring out the most crazed behaviour on forums?"

I would say a mix of factors.

Not that long ago this was one of the hottest stocks on the LSE with a market cap in excess of £20bn. I remember when the share price was almost £30 and there was a lot of greed and irrational exuberance. Very few people thought that the share price was going to decline so rapidly at the time.

A lot of investors are sitting on heavy losses and this is also one of the most shorted stocks. That being said this is also a dangerous stock to short - it is not as easy as it looks to go short on this stock. There is no such thing as "easy money". An unexpected RNS with game changing news can very easily send this flying to the stratosphere. This has happened before.

The truth is nobody knows. Very hard to time these things. However, if you have a large holding it is never a bad idea to topslice/take some profits - especially now with the share price at all time highs. The share price has doubled in less than a year and for a huge mega cap commodities stock that is one hell of an achievement.

This is just a very rough estimate, but I am guessing BG on average paid over the years in the region of £7-8 for its stake.

It seems to me that Baillie Gifford has more than halved its holding in Ocado as per the RNS on 20th April - they now have a 4.47% stake in the company down from 9.99%. What baffles me slightly is why they decided to reduce their holding with the share price at such a depressed level? I haven’t got the data, but I think Baillie Gifford paid much more for their original stake? If so they have sold at a loss.

Lingotto still retains a 9.75% stake plus an additional 5.44% stake in options as per the RNS on 7th April.

"SpaceX makes up 19.3% of the fund currently."

You are right. As of 31 March. SpaceX at 19.3% is by far the largest holding in the SMT portfolio - far higher than the second largest holding, which is TSMC at 5.7%.

Although there is a lot of excitement about the upcoming SpaceX IPO and it seems that almost everyone is expecting it to be a huge success, there is considerable risk too. I guess we shall see...

Thank you LLOL for your reply. That's very true. Top slicing is a good strategy here especially with valuations for many US growth and tech stocks as elevated as they are. I don't like the fact that the Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is above 40 - that makes me nervous. Having said that, the valuations of Chinese tech stocks are generally much more reasonable and its good that this fund has exposure to that.

I've been thinking quite a bit about the upcoming SpaceX IPO over the last few days. It seems to me that almost everyone is expecting the IPO to be a roaring success, but what if it actually doesn't end up being the huge success that so many are anticipating?

The most obvious factor would be the valuation as well as the broader high valuation of the S&P 500 as a whole. The current Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is now back above 40, which is historically very high.

Scottish Mortgage also has a very large holding in Space X - just over 15% of their total holdings is in that company.

Indeed JBongo.

I really don't know what Saba are trying to achieve in their relentless pursuit of this investment trust.

When I first invested here I always knew that it would be for the very long term. I like the strategy of this investment trust. I like the vision that the board and managers have and I like the companies in the portfolio.

Of course it is a high risk investment and I have always known that. I also know that a number of companies in the portfolio will turn out to be failures - that is fine. But I also know that a number of the companies in the portfolio will turn out to be stellar investments.

To really reap the rewards of being invested here one has to have a very long term time horizon. When I first invested here my aim was to be invested here forever - for the rest of my life. I feel like this is something that Saba Capital do not understand. I don't trust Saba. I find them incredibly short termist in their behaviour and quite frankly I don't know what they would bring to the table if they were to take control of this investment trust. I just don't think their values and strategy are aligned with how this investment trust should be run. It's a real shame that this investment trust has been hijacked like this and as an investor this puts me in an unnecessarily difficult position. I may just sell out of here and add more to my existing holding in Scottish Mortgage.

In my humble view, I think it is unwise for any fund to have more than 10% of a total portfolio in just one company. Even more than 4% is a lot.

I checked the full portfolio of SMT as of 31st January and it only had 0.3% of total net liquid assets. That's irresponsibly low.

"Dog of an investment trust..."

Or perhaps a good buying opportunity. Not that long ago I found the valuation of the Indian stock market as a whole too high. Now valuations have eased a little bit (although still historically quite high), which is a good thing for potential investors as I think the Indian economy is going to continue growing over the coming years and decades. This is not a fund to hold for just a few months. This is a fund to hold for years if not decades. Patience is key.