Member Info for AquarianAge

"We are going to need another "Musk" for the next generational move, these exceptional people are a rare occurence. Love them or hate them, they do make the world turn around."

I think over the next 5-10 years we are going to have a whole new generation of innovative and visionary entrepreneurs that are going to come out of nowhere. I think over the next 20 years plus we are going to experience a golden period of innovation. Not just in AI and its exponential evolution, but also in other new and emerging technologies. I think quantum computing is going to be a massive industry and I think 3D/4D printing is also going to be a huge industry - there was a lot of hype around it 12-13 years ago and then it went through this winter period but I can see it expanding and in conjunction with AI, robotics and quantum computing it will become an important component in the rapid technological change that the world is going to experience in the coming years.

Up around 30% or so since its 52 weak low. Certainly the huge rise in the share price of Vale over that period has been a big tailwind and is the largest holding in the etf at just over 10%. Also a decent size holding in Petrobras and some of the largest banks in Latin America. Still good value despite the rise and I think the dividend is currently around 4%.

"Run your profits."

I would generally agree. However, with commodities sometimes what goes up...

"It amazes me how something worth 291p is worth 700p 6 weeks later?!!? I should have put all my cards on it!"

It can also go back to sub 300p in no time! This is an unbelievably volatile share. I see also from the recent director dealings that some of the board of directors have been playing these wild swings like pros by selling large tranches of shares at the current high end of the range.

"I wonder what it is about Ocado that seems to bring out the most crazed behaviour on forums?"

I would say a mix of factors.

Not that long ago this was one of the hottest stocks on the LSE with a market cap in excess of £20bn. I remember when the share price was almost £30 and there was a lot of greed and irrational exuberance. Very few people thought that the share price was going to decline so rapidly at the time.

A lot of investors are sitting on heavy losses and this is also one of the most shorted stocks. That being said this is also a dangerous stock to short - it is not as easy as it looks to go short on this stock. There is no such thing as "easy money". An unexpected RNS with game changing news can very easily send this flying to the stratosphere. This has happened before.

The truth is nobody knows. Very hard to time these things. However, if you have a large holding it is never a bad idea to topslice/take some profits - especially now with the share price at all time highs. The share price has doubled in less than a year and for a huge mega cap commodities stock that is one hell of an achievement.

This is just a very rough estimate, but I am guessing BG on average paid over the years in the region of £7-8 for its stake.

It seems to me that Baillie Gifford has more than halved its holding in Ocado as per the RNS on 20th April - they now have a 4.47% stake in the company down from 9.99%. What baffles me slightly is why they decided to reduce their holding with the share price at such a depressed level? I haven’t got the data, but I think Baillie Gifford paid much more for their original stake? If so they have sold at a loss.

Lingotto still retains a 9.75% stake plus an additional 5.44% stake in options as per the RNS on 7th April.

"SpaceX makes up 19.3% of the fund currently."

You are right. As of 31 March. SpaceX at 19.3% is by far the largest holding in the SMT portfolio - far higher than the second largest holding, which is TSMC at 5.7%.

Although there is a lot of excitement about the upcoming SpaceX IPO and it seems that almost everyone is expecting it to be a huge success, there is considerable risk too. I guess we shall see...

Thank you LLOL for your reply. That's very true. Top slicing is a good strategy here especially with valuations for many US growth and tech stocks as elevated as they are. I don't like the fact that the Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is above 40 - that makes me nervous. Having said that, the valuations of Chinese tech stocks are generally much more reasonable and its good that this fund has exposure to that.

I've been thinking quite a bit about the upcoming SpaceX IPO over the last few days. It seems to me that almost everyone is expecting the IPO to be a roaring success, but what if it actually doesn't end up being the huge success that so many are anticipating?

The most obvious factor would be the valuation as well as the broader high valuation of the S&P 500 as a whole. The current Shiller PE Ratio of the S&P 500 is now back above 40, which is historically very high.

Scottish Mortgage also has a very large holding in Space X - just over 15% of their total holdings is in that company.

Indeed JBongo.

I really don't know what Saba are trying to achieve in their relentless pursuit of this investment trust.

When I first invested here I always knew that it would be for the very long term. I like the strategy of this investment trust. I like the vision that the board and managers have and I like the companies in the portfolio.

Of course it is a high risk investment and I have always known that. I also know that a number of companies in the portfolio will turn out to be failures - that is fine. But I also know that a number of the companies in the portfolio will turn out to be stellar investments.

To really reap the rewards of being invested here one has to have a very long term time horizon. When I first invested here my aim was to be invested here forever - for the rest of my life. I feel like this is something that Saba Capital do not understand. I don't trust Saba. I find them incredibly short termist in their behaviour and quite frankly I don't know what they would bring to the table if they were to take control of this investment trust. I just don't think their values and strategy are aligned with how this investment trust should be run. It's a real shame that this investment trust has been hijacked like this and as an investor this puts me in an unnecessarily difficult position. I may just sell out of here and add more to my existing holding in Scottish Mortgage.

In my humble view, I think it is unwise for any fund to have more than 10% of a total portfolio in just one company. Even more than 4% is a lot.

I checked the full portfolio of SMT as of 31st January and it only had 0.3% of total net liquid assets. That's irresponsibly low.

"Dog of an investment trust..."

Or perhaps a good buying opportunity. Not that long ago I found the valuation of the Indian stock market as a whole too high. Now valuations have eased a little bit (although still historically quite high), which is a good thing for potential investors as I think the Indian economy is going to continue growing over the coming years and decades. This is not a fund to hold for just a few months. This is a fund to hold for years if not decades. Patience is key.

"Silver down $32 and gold plummeted $1,200 since war started...So much for safe havens!"

It's always important to see the bigger long term picture. My own reason for investing in precious metals has nothing to do with geopolitics.

Thank you Senetor_Mendoza. It seems to me though that almost all the current director shareholdings have been acquired via granted share options and awarded shares rather than purchases with their own money.

In the last 5 years I think there have only been two director buys;

In April 2021 Jon Harris, the current ceo, purchased 30,000 shares. Even though he may own over 350,000 shares this is the only record I have of him purchasing any shares with his own money.

And in September 2024, Julien Balkany purchased 50,000 shares.

One very glaring thing I have noticed with this company is that none of the directors have purchased any shares in almost 5 years. The risks and rewards are well known, but I have to say that I am rather disappointed by the absence of any real skin in the game. It almost begs the question; why get on board in steering this exotic ship if you don't believe in it?

I bet MW is not nakedly shorting this. The truth is that going short this over the last ten months has been an absolutely ruinous trade.

Haha. Truth be told, I don't think this company will be taken over any time soon and most definitely not for a valuation below £1bn.