Member Info for AquarianAge

Worth a read...

https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/weird-scenes-inside-the-gold-mine/

Gold: Silver ratio now creeping back up and is currently at around 65-66. I wonder if it will go back to 80+ at some point in the next few trading days? This would make silver very attractive again.

Silver is indeed a wild ride and the price gyrations of the last few trading days have been crazy. I hesitate to make predictions, but I personally don't think this precious metals rally is done. When I look at the state of the world over the coming months and years and take into account all the macroeconomic factors including the astronomically high level government of debt in the USA, I think this rally will resume and new ATHs will continue to be reached.

Silver has really had the stuffing knocked out of it since my last comment and is now at around $76. This is a very aggressive fall and it will be interesting to see where the price settles. In the event that the silver price were to fall below around $50 (its previous high) I would be very keen to buy more. The fundamentals and investing case have not changed.

Silver has had an absolutely phenomenal run these last few months and has hit my $100 an ounce price target much faster than I thought. I think its all time high so far was close to $120? For so long the silver price was punching below its weight and then bang out of nowhere the price just exploded. But the problem with silver, as I already mentioned, is its volatility. Its more volatile than gold. The gold price today is down almost 3% whereas the silver price is down almost 8% - even though the price still remains above $100. One tailwind for me regarding the silver price is that the silver to gold ratio is still historically quite high at between 45-50. Of course it was higher not that long ago, but for me if the ratio is above 20 it means that silver is undervalued compared with gold.

I wouldn't call Ocado a "deadbeat" company. It is a highly innovative company. However, I agree that it's debt burden is an issue. I find it interesting that five years ago investors were more than happy to pay 10 times the current share price for shares in this company.

"Irrespective of the Space X partial sale, I've seen nothing from Saba to suggest expertise in this sector."

I agree.

"The last 4 -5yrs Buffets trades have bewildered me; selling the pharma / banks to say there too expensive, to selling Apple stake too."

At one point I think Berkshire Hathaway's stake in Apple represented 40% of its investment portfolio. That is FAR too high. It still retains a chunky stake with Apple now representing just over 20%. My biggest issue with BH is the concentration risk of its investment portfolio with the top 3 holdings making up almost 50% of it. That said, BH does have a huge cash position and will have a lot of liquidity at its disposal in the event of a severe market crash. It won't be naked! ;)

Hi FF - do you have any links to any credible sources that state that silver is running out on the earth’s crust?

There is an interesting article on the Royal Mint website entitled “How Rare Are Precious Metals?”. According to the article there are 4 parts of gold per billion kg of crust material in the earth’s crust. And there are 75 parts of silver per billion kg of crust material. So there is 18.75 times more silver than gold in the earth’s crust. This means that despite the recent rise in the silver price, it is still fundamentally undervalued compared with gold if we go by those stats and the current silver and gold prices. Interestingly, platinum is only a tiny bit less scarce than gold with there being 5 parts of platinum per billion kg of crust material.

Here is the link to the article…

https://www.royalmint.com/invest/discover/gold-news/how-rare-are-precious-metals/

The silver price has already broken past it's all time high and is now above $60 an ounce. If one uses the silver to gold price ratio one can deduce that silver is still cheap compared to gold. Could it continue to climb higher and head to $100? I think it's possible in this current environment. However, it's also important to realise that the silver price is more volatile than the gold price and is used a lot more in industry.

Even though it's a huge company I quite like the fact it's currently not as hot as some of the Mag 7 stocks despite its share price rise over the past 12-18 months. I also think it has a lot of global expansion potential - not just in its existing Asian markets, but perhaps also in Africa over the coming years? This is a part of the world where China has quite a strong foothold. I guess we shall see.

Pernod Ricard also down substantially. Was trading at over 200 euros a share earlier in 2023. Now currently trading at 73-74 euros. In my view, I see both PR and Diageo stock as very good buying opportunities right now. However, as always, please DYOR.

Agree. Although the BABA share price has more than doubled over the last 12-18 months I personally still think there is a lot more potential upside ahead. I am well aware of the risks regarding investing in Chinese equities, but still...current market cap of BABA is $377bn, which is lower than Amazon's at a whopping $2.4tn.

I think your YouTube channel is great! Lots of interesting and informative videos. Thank you for sharing.

Saba Capital causing problems again...

https://citywire.com/wealth-manager/news/saba-calls-second-vote-to-oust-edinburgh-worldwide-s-board/a2479376

I am invested here, but I actually prefer it that the share price goes down.

"There's a huge danger that alcohol stocks could go the same as tobacco stocks - 'sin' stocks with low or zero growth and a whopping dividend to prop up the share price."

I don't know. I am currently up almost 100% on my IMB shares.

I have to say this has been one of my successful core contrarian investments along with Imperial Brands. Sometimes it is important to block out the noise. I think there is more upside to come. I intend to hold and have a medium term target of £50.

Patience continues to be key here.

I am not a raging Bitcoin bull, however I find it very interesting how one is unable to purchase units of this Bitcoin ETF into an ISA yet one can bung MicroStrategy shares into it no probs. This is the great irony and where the FCA is truly asleep at the wheel. With this ETF you are simply just exposed to the price of Bitcoin whereas with Microstrategy you are exposed to a whole extra world of unnecessary leverage risk beyond just the price of Bitcoin.