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Nice to see this creeping higher. However, I think it may also pay for one to be on their guard. The current Shiller PE ratio of the S&P 500 index is now at almost 39. This is historically very high although its not at an all time high. This was reached in Dec 1999 close to the height of the DotCom bubble when the ratio hit 44. Of course, this does not automatically mean that US stocks will crash hard in the short term. The AI tailwind and narrative is still very strong. At least from a technical angle, there is still a lot of momentum behind those stocks benefiting from this. So even if a Shiller PE ratio of 39 might sound alarming there is every chance that it can go to 50 or even 60. The current positive feedback loops may get it there. I think a mindset of keep dancing but staying close to the exit door is the way to go. 

Impressive performance over the last few months - consistantly slow and steady without any extreme volatility. It's good to see patience being slowly rewarded. Very craterred sentiment when this was in the 75p-65p trenches - sometimes this can be a good contrarian signal. I still think this has further to run in my view. DYOR.

$323bn market cap. Trading on a PE of 571. Current market cap is at over 100x revenues. Add in to the mix an organisation with neferious characters. And an increasingly growing public backlash against it; I don't see this momentum losing steam any time soon. In fact, I think its only going to get more intense in the coming months and years. Thus, I think this security is a good way to play this all when it all unravels.

Everyone was expecting the share price to fly today and are now understandably disappointed when it didn't. This is a lesson in just how random markets can be. Something we often underestimate.

"You wrote it but you don't understand it old boy !"

I understand it very well. At some point in the future Greatland will run into liquidity issues as it struggles to meet the huge capex costs needed to fully develop Havieron. Mark my words. I've seen it all before.

"All development costs for Havieron fall to Greatland—not Newmont."

That's exactly what I said in my last post.

Following on from my last comment I think Newmont are playing this very shrewdly. Rather than own 70% of the Havieron mine and thus carrying most of the huge costs for bringing that mine to production they have instead decided to own a 20.4% stake in Greatland. So all the costs now fall on Greatland for developing Havieron. If Greatland runs into liquidity issues during the development of that mine and experiences a huge correction in its share price, I suspect that Newmont may then try to increase its stake in Greatland and may even try to takeover all of Greatland for a bargain price - getting all of Havieron and what remains of Tefler on the cheap. 

"3.2 million ounces at telfer at the moment"

Thats the estimated "resource" figure for Tefler. The actually proven reserves figure is much lower than that.

Just expanding on my earlier comment. Although it is a positive that the Tefler mine is producing and generating revenue for the company, I am also concerned about the diminishing production life of that mine. If according to Greatland, only 720,000 ounces of proven and probable gold reserves (so the actual number of proven reserves could be lower than that amount) remain in that mine it is going to be exhausted pretty soon - especially since already over 90,000 ounces of gold have been produced from that mine in the four months from December 2024 until the end of March this year. 

I estimate that it will take anything from 3-6 years to get the Havieron mine producing and at least around $750m-$1bn to get there. We only have the “resource” figure of 7 million ounces of gold but what is the “reserves” figure for Havieron? That is what is important. I fear that the Telfer mine is going to be exhausted before production starts at Havieron. The cash generated from Telfer will not be enough (even with at an even higher gold price like $4k an ounce) to cover all the capex costs for Havieron. The company will have to raise more money either via more debt (that A$75m working capital facility is going to go in no time) or via more dilutive equity raisings. 

And all this begs the question; if the prospects for Havieron are so promising, why did Newmont sell its stake in that mine? I suspect, because it knew that the capex costs would be astronomical.

This will probably get lost in the sheer volume of posts that are posted here daily. My concern with this company is its current market valuation, which sits at £2.2bn. This is more than Centemin’s valuation before it got taken over by Ashanti and Centemin had very strong positive earnings and was paying a good dividend.

The Havieron mine will require a colossal amount of capital expenditure to get it fully going. Also if the prospects for the Havieron mine are so good (I am not saying that they aren't) then why are none of the larger mega cap gold companies like Barrick or Newmont interested in aquiring a stake of that mine?

I know that the Tefler mine acquired last year from Newmont is now producing, but it will be interesting to see the full financials for the first half of this year. Simply saying in the quarterly update for the first quarter of this year that A$458m of revenue was generated is not enough. What was the company’s operating profit for that period? And remember, this figure of revenue generated is from a high gold price. 

"The problem with ‘getting in ahead of the game’ is that it invariably means being too early and therefore losing value over a long time. Even if one watches for the appropriate signals - like a break from the prevailing downward trend or consistent price above a given declining average - there are risks. An accumulation of 5p losses soon mounts up and, with lack of dividends and inflation, the loss of capital can become significant unless one works hard at trading to mitigate the overall decline."

This is all very true

I think patience will be rewarded imho - as frustrating as it may be.

JUP share price is now up by almost a third since it's low around the beginning of April this year. Could be a very successful contrarian investment in the longer term. DYOR

Last time I checked the portfolio of the fund, SpaceX represented the largest holding at 7.8% of the total fund. 

I’ve been very critical of Elon in the past, but most of my criticism was aimed at Tesla and it’s very chequered/murky history. Tesla now represents just a very small % of the whole portfolio so for me it’s not much of an issue any more.

However, I feel SpaceX is a different beast and it begs the question; how crucial is Musk currently to that company? Even though he is the founder it seems to me that much of the heavy day to day lifting (no pun intended ;)) of the company’s operations is done by the chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell who’s been at the company for over two decades. It is interesting how so few people outside of this area are even aware of her. 

Space Exploration is still a very nascent industry and I think SpaceX is well positioned going forward. 

El Donaldo is no fan of this country slapping a whopping 46% US tariff! ;)

Still, none of this changes the fact that Viet Nam is a fast growing country and this could be a good buying opp in my humble view. DYOR.

"Now it should run back up to £9-10 by 2026."

You don't know that.

Quite a healthy rise in the SP today - any real reason for it?

It's precisely because of such unexpected rises that it is dangerous to short Ocado as I warned in a earlier post. I remember some poster talking guff about 'golden days' and how it's a no brainer to short Ocado. If only it were that simple! ;)

My main concern is the company's debt and all the payments that are due within the next few years as I stated in another post. It is important to avoid a situation where the company is forced to raise money via a large dilution at an unfavourable shareprice. If this rally has legs and the sharerprice flies about £4, I think the directors should consider a £1bn equity raise. The current cash position is not enough.

I am still glad Saba were defeated. My primary reason for investing in this IT is to have exposure to all the innovate companies in the portfolio - many of which are private. Unfortunately, there is too much of a 'short term greed long term stupidity' mindset. Investing here is a very long game. In fact, I'd like to be invested here for the rest of my life and watch a handful of companies in the portfolio that were once little acorns grow into game changing unicorns. As I have said previously, this is not an investment to make a quick buck. Then it is best to invest your money elsewhere.

"Short is the position to take here. Racking up more profits daily. Golden days..."

Although shorting Ocado may seem like a "dead cert" and there are many good reasons to believe that the share price can fall even further, I would also be careful. An unexpected game changing piece of news can easily send the share price flying 80%+ on the day. This has happened before.

"I wish I had the optimism of Lingotto and can't help thinking they know something I don't."

I've often thought this myself regarding Lingotto. However, why haven't there been any substantial director buys over the last few months? Especially now with the share price at these prices. If the directors really believed in the future of this company one would think that they would be hovering up shares at these current prices?