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I will be more concerned if the shorts go above 6.55 and then above 7 that suggests a different type of move ... at current levels shares seem to stay 3.35 to 365 based on previous history and current perceived value by whoever is buying them. KROGER still hold their equity ...
Nothing new or changes our view if it closes under 350p as has been for quite sometime but would set some panic among shorters if we close much higher.
I have a bad feeling this will end the day back below 350. I've sold up, my it's too risky for my liking.
The latest short at blackrock was 363... so hopefully their knees knock when it goes over 363
Some good news for Ocado Group I stumbled across.
Empire..Sobeys...Voila....
https://strategyonline.ca/2024/03/15/empire-reports-q3-profit-boost-and-voila-sales-spike/
Upwards! Below 400p could be a sitting duck.
Phoenixy
the S&P/Nasdaq and the Treasury yields are two completely different things and a distortion towards the movement of Big Tech makes the overall picture of the exchange , well distorted ..
Shorters and traders here .... a number of them IMO just use it as a hedge , against say other positions...and a hedge against a Yield bet
If Yields go up then that is bad for shares, in general .. recent inflation figure worried the market, yields pushed up, and here it went down ....
now we await further data.... so.. less movement in the SP here, until the data comes out ....
IMO
Pokerchips,
I don't think Ocado cares about what happens in the US...whether it's NFP or job market, Fed's interest rates, inflation whatsoever. Even if Nasdaq moves up 1000 points in 1 week, Ocado will hardly react positively but if nasdaq falls 200 points or so, it reacts by falling 3-5%. Btw, Nasdaq is up almost 700 points and S&P 500 up around 120 points since recent lows, but Ocado is still where it was 2 weeks ago if not lower.(day yet to finish|)
Thanks PC, just makes no sense to me not to consider value. As soon as you try to achieve value, you're timing.
Boyo "Selling portions on highs, topping back up on lows and offloading if it starts to fall below set limits are essential actions, especially with speculative and volatile shares. " It might even be worth adding 'with shares on the UK markets, they have not tended to rise consistently over time. Look at BP for example, good company, strong profits. I'm thinking UK markets over lets say 5-10 years. BP was around 475 10 years ago and is now 514. If you bought and held BP on the UK market over 10 years you'd have returned about 8% (not incl divis/inflationary losses, opportunity costs). If you look at US markets there are clearly some companies doing a lot better than that e.g. Chevron at 124 10 years ago, now at 160 gives a return of almost 30%. That's a facile comparison as I don't enough about these companies, but my point holds I think. The UK markets have not been ideal for buy and hold strategies over the last 10 years. Another way of looking at it could be 'timing', if you'd been sharp enough to buy BP in Nov 2020 at 191 and hold it to now at 514, you'd have returned 170% in 3 and half years. You have to be sharp enough to do it, and everything is a no-brainer in hindsight and nothing is a no brainer off the rhs of the chart. But if you can 'time', then 'time', particularly in the UK market.
RetireGuy: Your question is about ‘buying back in’ but you also say ‘before I realise the loss’ which technically implies you still hold the shares. I’m assuming that you are in fact currently out of OCDO but haven’t yet walked away from reinvesting at the right price. You also mention ‘leverage down’ which could mean borrowing money to invest in the hope of recovering your losses. Given your past experience in controlling your investment in OCDO I don’t think you should be encouraged to compound your losses by taking on more risk, especially if that involves incurring debt. If you are only debating what to do with the last 15% then that’s somewhat simpler but even then it should firstly depend on whether you could put the remaining cash to better use. Only you will know that
If I’ve understood you correctly, it seems that if you had all the original cash back in your hand today you wouldn’t put any of it into OCDO? If that is true then it makes no sense to do so with the last 15%. However, if you still think OCDO has a genuine chance of significant recovery, have no better uses for the money and are prepared to risk further loss, then retaining some investment in OCDO may be a reasonable option. Every investment needs to be managed - to buy and forget is a bad approach. Selling portions on highs, topping back up on lows and offloading if it starts to fall below set limits are essential actions, especially with speculative and volatile shares. So you need to be prepared for that. Regarding the lowest price OCDO may achieve then, not forgetting zero, £2.40 is a possibility but that significant drop requires the sp to fall below the current support level at about 340. On that basis it may be wise to wait and see which direction the sp takes from the current level over coming weeks and whether the major short interests in it begin to unwind. It’s your cash, your choice.
I think the market today looks like it is betting that the US jobs numbers will show some weakening , taking some pressure off the 10y and 2 y yields
Depends how they want to present the numbers ...the Q1 GDP drop could mean fewer job openings etc
Stupmy
I agree with you.... timing the market ....
yes...Japan .... a professional would not seriously bad time that market, simply because it is largely connected to the changing value of the YEN ,interest rates and the role of BoJ etc ..which any professional knows ... so you certainly would never just dive in , with some kind of "time in the market" idea, within a peak bubble kind of environment, unless you are a very inexperienced private investor , I guess
It is the same with emerging markets which tend to be cyclical based on currency,lending rates and whther Dollars are flowing into them or out
Thanks Sangi, I've given it some thought and it truly is a nonsense. It's based on moderate returns on US composite markets e.g. US500. If you chart it, it looks like a no-brainer and it's undeniable that just buying and holding a tracker would have given a sensible return. However, having to skill to identify google, amazon, apple etc early and hold those would have done a lot better. Take a look at the Nikkei, if you'd bought that in 1989 then time in the market would have been very damaging to your principle indeed. It would have taken 40 yrs to get back to square one and that ignores opportunity cost and inflation (perhaps less relevant to Japan) related losses. I promise you, that if you think about it, timing the market will give you a much better return than 'time in the market', but if you can do both together with selecting the winners of the future (Buffet), then you'll probably get the best of all worlds together with some stability and safety. I just work on the timing bit and it works well for me, but I spend most of my time on the sidelines waiting for what I believe is a good opportunity. Then I comitt to it and work my positions around falls and rises to keep my entry prices in line with the SP. When it does rise, I don't have the comittment to the company itself to stay in forever, so I take my profit and drop it and wait for the next company to meet my criteria.
Ok Stupmy, you are right
Just looked through Instacart's full year earnings release. Presented as a "Letter to Shareholders".
This is not a serious company.
No he's not really Sangi, he times the market. Do you think it's random that he's been accumulating Occidental over the last 2 or 3 years. He's doing it because he thinks it has represented value over this time frame. That is timing the market. In addition he believes POO will rise in the future, that also is timing the market. What he does is 'hold forever'. But he's better able than most to recognise a stock that's worth holding forever. I'm not vain enough to think I can do that, I certainly don't have the knowledge to pick long term winners with consistency. He does, so he holds long term. But believe me, he does not enter markets randomly. He waits until he believes that they represent value and will accrue value in the future. He times the market.
In fact the 'time in the market, not timing the market' nonsense appears to have originated in 2020 or thereabouts and believe came from a fund manager. I'd imagine not a very good one. Fund managers have to drum up money for their funds and to do that, they're happy to use soundbytes for the masses, those unable to navigate the markets themselves or those with too little time to learn it/do it. It's still a nonsense but it's a soothing one if you don't know what you're doing.
D1 are so smart that they invested in Instacart at a 39bn dollar valuation in 2021. Up significantly from the 2020 value of 7.5bn.
When it listed last year it did so at about 8bn.
Looking at the big D1 Capital short that seems to be related to their long position on Instacart.
I feel comfortable with that. The Ocado/Kroger partnership is primarily about delivering people's weekly grocery shop. You can't deliver chilled and frozen with Instacart so they are operating in somewhat different spaces.
It's like saying Deliveroo are going to cause Ocado sales to decline because their riders are going to Tesco to pick up a bottle of coke and a couple of pizzas.
D1 have an office in Miami so could be them aggressively pushing the Miami spoke closure fluff.
Stupmy- Buffett is pretty much the originator of the don't try to time the market idea.
He made money from learning as much as he could about a business and then sticking to his convictions.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-on-market-timing-165102647.html
340p could not be broken despite trying for 2 days in a row...looks like support for now. Maybe small up day hopefully today with shorters trying it again next week when markets turn red?
Yeah, I use shorttracker. I don't think shorts have necessarily increased I think Nr 2 dropped back (I'm not sure if it was Kingfisher) Anyway, just be glad you don't hold PFC!! Shares suspended until auditors do some more work.
Same caveats about the data being 2 days out of date, but there's more detail on Short tracker. Last reported changes on their are on Apr 30th.
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B3MBS747/
Just tried to post and it got lost somewhere, sorry if this turns up 2x
In theory shorts increased. See this link. I can't see who increased their positions. Assuming this data is 48h out of date, then that doesn't challenge your question as to whether the high volume at the end of the trading day might be short covering boyo. I guess it'll be interesting to see how tomorrow and Mon/Tues play out. I'll keep checking that. Not sure why I can't see more detail this evening, but we're now the 2nd most shorted stock on the UK market.
https://shorteurope.com/details_company.php?company=OCADO%20GROUP%20PLC&land=united_kingdom
It'll be Interesting to hear what you made of today then Gioviano:
The price continued to look a bit manipulated to me today - still oddly trapped for much of the time below 346 and then released at an opportune time to ultimately trigger a very positive UT and closing price:
https://invst.ly/14o2p8 (15minute chart prior to close, highest volume shown 380k )
https://invst.ly/14o42g (same chart but including close - note the massive after hours volume 7.891M or 85% of the day’s trade)
On a daily chart it looks like this https://invst.ly/14o4fk with the day’s total volume at 9.274M, well above the current average of 5.9M.
I’m not complaining but it does look stage managed: 1) Was there a two day concerted attempt to push it below 340? and 2) Are any shorts closing because the attempt failed?
I dunno either!
Boyo: looks like some divergence that I marked as a possibility on Weds. Doing a great job of trying to shake a few more off despite NIC news today.