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I thought it was just the effect of 29% dilution for the most part.
5 hourly RSI is now at 10. Daily RSI at 21. Rarely get to see such levels unless a stock is crashing.
Didn’t see a thread about it but looks like black rock have reduced their holding on NG. What are people’s thoughts on this? It seems the market has overreacted again and there’s been a further sell drop this morning. Do we think this is the bottom, or could it go lower? I’m seeing 854 at the moment which is incredible seing as we were at 1145 not long ago
Baz they are both similar calculations to calculate TERP, except in your calculation they've done away with quantities of previously held shares and rights issue shares and instead calculated TERP based on the ratio between offer shares and shares previously held.
I have no idea which is the most accurate without delving into it, but £10.18 and £10.23 are quite close to each other.
Flec
now what is it you do not understand from this? -
''The sole purpose of the programme is to reduce the ordinary share capital of the Company.''
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/LLOY/share-buyback-programme-commences-1zj10usnh8to3jd.html
Flec
''Lloyds has underperformed 49% worse than Barclays and around 38% worse than Natwest, so the buybacks don't appear to be working as planned, so again I wasn't talking nonsense.''
As I have already said, not only are you as a non shareholder trolling this board,you also reference other stocks on it as well.
For about the hundredth time to you - Lloyds share repurchase programmes have always, and will always do what the aim of them are -
to REDUCE SHARE CAPITAL - you need to go back to school.
Flec
''to say that the rights issue damaged sentiment isn't nonsense at all, it's fact''
I really do get fed up having to repeat myself - NO that is your opinion.
What is a fact is that the market values NG on a daily basis. If you had been a shareholder you would know that the share price is continuously fluctuating , and now is no different. In the pre xr period of about the previous 2 years the share has been over £12 and lower than today's post xr price.
Fleccy, I think my calcs are correct however both are close enough and I go along with you post.
The website I used said the formula =
(Market Cap + Cash raised from rights issue)/Total shares after rights issue =
(£44,709,647,671.78 + £7,001,145,921)/5,052,587,194 = £10.23
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ex-rights.asp
"A simple way to estimate the theoretical ex-rights price is to add the current market value of all shares existing before the rights issue and the funds raised as a result of the rights issue sales. This number is then divided by the total number of shares in existence after the rights issue is complete to arrive at a per-share value of those rights"
This is a link to a small spreadsheet I made to do the calculations:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQEWYioCX64zqjTfgCXb6s1j5LxISz79OeSG6ZUnCvOZ2qCQqIZ6cVLewcf51nyfmfKi4cWkLbATX00/pubhtml
''
If the price had held at around £11.27 for the 23rd May close, assuming the calculation I looked up is correct, the TERP adjustment on the 24th would have been £10.23, ''
11.27 x 24 +(7 x6.45) divided by 31 =£10.18
Excellent post
LTI I'll deal with each point in my previous post. First I'll deal with my comment about the Rights issue announcement damaging sentiment. On the 22nd May, pre results day, the closing price was around £11.27, now if sentiment was intact you would have expected the price to stay around that level post results, but it didn't . At the end of results day the closing price was around £10.00, so the share price dropped around 11%. Because the share price dropped 11% on results day, closing around £10, it brought the TERP price down with it.
Because of our conversation I decided to look up how to calculate TERP and did some calculations:
Total shares including Treasury shares (Pre Rights issue) 3,967,138,214
Rights issue Number of shares 1,085,448,980
Cash raised from rights issue £7,001,145,921
Total number of shares after the rights issue 5,052,587,194
Rights offer price £6.45
22nd May Market Cap £44,709,647,671.78
23rd May Market Cap £39,711,053,522.14
If the price had held at around £11.27 for the 23rd May close, assuming the calculation I looked up is correct, the TERP adjustment on the 24th would have been £10.23, but because of the 11% price drop the TERP calculation came in at £9.25.
Currently the share price is 5% below the £9.25 TERP and over 14% below the £10.23 TERP, so to say that the rights issue damaged sentiment isn't nonsense at all, it's fact. If the calculations I've made are in some way incorrect, I'll be happily corrected.
To deal with the other point, it's easy to show that Lloyds has underperformed both Barclays and Natwest, just compare their performance over the last 5 years:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/LLOY:LON?comparison=LON%3ABARC%2CLON%3ANWG&window=5Y
Lloyds has underperformed 49% worse than Barclays and around 38% worse than Natwest, so the buybacks don't appear to be working as planned, so again I wasn't talking nonsense.
Keep the insults coming they make me laugh, water off a ducks back. 🦆
I heard over the weekend Labour are not planning to nationalise National grid.
Looks a strong buy but I recall in 2019 the Labour 'then' wanted to nationalise NG.
Is this still a risk on this or unlikely given the investments and plans NG has now.?
Just curious before I jump in
Yes, you can opt for more rights. Just log on to the corporate action page of your online dealing platform. There are 4 options you can choose.
1) Take up the all the rights that you are entitled.
2) Fill in the number of rights you want to take up.
3) Sell all of your rights.
4) Sell part of your rights.
If you want to buy more rights, then take the second option, fill in the number of rights you like to take up.
I only have 1000 NG shares. So my rights entitlement is only 291, but I chose the second option. I have taken up 1000 rights, and it was granted and confirmed. Of course, you got to have enough fund in your account to pay for whatever number of rights you are going to take up though.
Hope this will help.
Hi Liam, I am also with the Halifax and also taking the right issue. I have deposited into my account so I guess the funds will be debited on the 4th June. You can't buy more shares and qualify for the rights issue however if you buy any more shares before the 6th I think you will qualify for the dividend
Hi, I’m new to shares and rights issue. I have 695 shares. Taking the rights issue offers me 202 ordinary shares. I am going to take the rights issue. 2 questions please- can I increase my holding of shares and get option for more rights rights or is it only the amount I held on 24th may. 2nd- I use Halifax share dealing- do I just have funds in there on 4th June that they take? Thanks in advance
Flec
''I'm correct in saying that the Rights Issue has damaged sentiment toward the stock''
really? - just your opinion - to me I see it as a good investment opportunity for the upcoming increase in electricity demand - you need capital in invest to reap the benefits.
The the rest of your post is the usual nonsense - you are clueless.
Not only have you disrupted this board as a non shareholder troll , you now post further nonsense relating to stocks that are not NG on the NG investment board.
I posted earlier there was nothing in it .
You will have the cash for a couple of weeks with the np , and save a little on stamp duty .
I bought both today a two hour gap before they were same price .
Big guys skimming will be taking a little .
I was very lucky here having sold out the other week but missing the 11.40 area just to bag some profit after showing very good short term return.Very happy to see opportunity to reinvest here again just averaging in what I see as an active level £9 and £8.77 will added again lower if it happens.
Of which there have been several, but this was the bit I liked
“ Demand for the FTSE 100 utility’s shares have stabilised today. Indeed, it’s currently the second-most purchased share among Hargreaves Lansdown investors, reflecting healthy interest from dip buyers.”
Thank for that Bigbadbaz
At 878p….this has to be the best bargain in FTSE100 right now
If you buy at 192p you will still have to pay 645p for the share ie 192 +645p =837p and you will not get the divi.
Ok so now I can buy the rights issue shares at 1.92 but what does that buy me? will I get a whole share as I thought it was set at 6.45. (I took that option up) will i get some sort of dividend from it? I'm looking at topping up the main NG holdings at 8.78 (currently) but not sure if to split etc. sorry if its been asked but you guys/girls have posted a fair bit and couldn't see any similar
Admittedly I may have misinterpreted the working's of the Ex-Rights market adjustment, although I'm still really vague on the workings of it; That aside I'm correct in saying that the Rights Issue has damaged sentiment toward the stock, and it's created uncertainty for shareholders going forward. Something else that's clear, NG wouldn't have diluted their stock unless they absolutely had to.
The thing with you LTI is that you pick and choose a narrative to suit your own thought processes, for example your defence of Lloyds for choosing buybacks over dividends is an example of what I'm talking about. Nunn debased the dividend and ploughed cash into buybacks and Lloyds has underperformed since. There's no proof that Nunn's policies has helped the share price, he could easily have reinstated AHO's policy of only doing share buybacks to cover block listings and reinstated at the existing pre covid progressive dividend level; It's true there's no proof that continuing AHO's dividend and buyback policies would have raised the price above the current level, but shareholders would have choices to reinvest the extra dividends back in to Lloyds, or elsewhere. Nunn kicked existing Lloyds shareholders in the teeth and there's a chance NG shareholders might have received a similar kicking, time will tell.