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A blue day... it's not before time! 700 to 432 in less than month.
“Jesus, Mother Mary and the Wee Donkey”
We are risk of a blue day :)
H
I’m holding 15 years, then I’ll retire on the proceeds
Elje if Ian buckles was/is anybody could be.
Poidster 00:04
'Definately a long term hold'
Are you 'H'?
Indeed, will be interesting what “Significant” actually transpires into in relation to out LFT product line but GM is not likely to use a term like “Significant” unless he is VERY confident.
I think @Kaeren’s estimate of £ 240m a year just for the Antigen LFT is probably conservative with a capital C. Innova was £1.2bn in April JUST for UK!!!! AND GM mentions CE validated for “Home Use” now that would be something if we secured that…
But even if it was just £ 240m for Antigen and the same for Antibody, boy we will be in for yet another transformative year. In the meantime, forget the current SP and the games, its just nowhere near reflective of the business imo whichever way you dice the figures. The dust will settle here, and we will rerate properly, its just a short matter of time.
Not sure what will happen with the £ 8bn UK LFT Framework. Talk on ODX that a decision after 30 days is likely i.e., Friday 7th May. Not so sure myself could be June, they will only confirm this once they are totally satisfied, they have the right suppliers fully validated and confirmed: -
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2021/W11/746914041
The process at PD to secure the Governments prized validation is fairly complex: -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/protocol-for-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices
I could be wrong, but I think you need to pass stage 3a and possibly 4 as well to secure validation for “Home Use”. As at today so far, those that are Validated at 3a stage, that are UK, are very thin on the ground:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/assessment-and-procurement-of-coronavirus-covid-19-tests/outcome-of-the-evaluation-of-rapid-diagnostic-assays-for-specific-sars-cov-2-antigens-lateral-flow-devices
Sure Screen are UK so they may well get a slice. It would be fantastic if we made the final list as part of that £ 8bn framework. I am not expecting it, it would be a bonus as GM simply said before the end of Q2 so that’s before the end of June. It would be totally left of field if we did make the framework wouldn’t that be something… Meanwhile I notice Excalibur have passed 3a, as discussed here we have a connection with them due to the CEO previously being involved at Lab21 and Microgen so you never know maybe some support business there for us.
Which ever way this goes, I remain incredibly confident in Novacyt’s future
Fun times
GLA
@crl123
I'm with you, long term hold.
Covid revenues are to be welcomed but, for me, its the long term growth in value areas I'm more invested in.
They are changing the face of diagnostics. They will be pivotal in moving quality diagnostics out of the formal laboratory setting and right next to the patient.
This cuts across so many settings globally, from infectious diseases, environmental settings and most importantly oncology.
Over time, novacyt will improve and simplify testing in all these areas.
They have already proven their skill set and have their first foot on the ladder and have set out their stall very impressively in their response to covid.
For me, for many reasons, its the work in oncology that with be completely transformative.
I can forsee, in the coming years, getting a definitive cancer diagnosis at very early stages in the cancer pathway via simple blood tests, this could even take place in the GP surgeries themselves.
Whilst a cancer diagnosis is never great, the earlier you get the diagnosis the better.
Current systems are very time consuming, subjective and labour intensive. Novacyt has the potential and capability to circumvent all of this.
I'm both a cancer survivor and an ex biomedical scientist who has worked in these settings.
If you're a day trader, I've said this before, this is no longer a share for you. If you are interested in a solid company with an already proven track record in innovation and delivery for long term gain, you're in the right place.
Definately a long term hold
Qpcr , near to patient testing and antibody testing are the near term revenues. Hopefully by being first to the post with the latest required tests it will lead to an ever increasing amount of qpcr machines in circulation.
There is an article in the novacyt.insider that highlights the importance of this. At the moment we are chasing the big operators like Roche
But as the number of q machines increase so the value of novacyts customer base increases
The increase in worldwide sales is very promising but the cancellation of the second part of the nhs was not.!!
Hopefully we will get guidance on qpcr sales as they are an indicator of longer term revenue.
Sure Kaeren, we all have different opinions on this. I think back to that wretched time when we had to endure Captain Stanley on here and what he repeatedly asked the forum was 'what do you have when/if covid goes away?' and the response was always either 'covid isn't going away, ever!' or, at least from me 'we'll know soon, trust me the board will be already planning long term!' There was then so much build up to that January update with many discussions on here about what the forward guidance was going to be and how much non-covid related detail we were going to get only for none to come and the share price to rapidly decline.
When it does come, especially if it's impressive, I think novacyt will be looked at in a completely different light.
To all those holders who bought at significantly higher prices, your patience is appreciated. To those who bought for a quick buck in 2 weeks and no plan b, your exit will be appreciated when the new faithful arrive soon. To longterm holders, your commitment hasn't gone unnoticed. To those who have had no faith in this short recent period, soooooo looking forward to I told you so in a few weeks time. Sorry, less than diplomatic but don't want to sugar coat it.
Harchris the point is to me that many things could be a (k) atalyst to get this a movin and a shaking shorterm. Mid/ longterm like Soder I am a cool kid about it.
Back off to bake , love it.
Following on from an earlier post this is exactly the point I was trying to make. I think GM had two options at the start of the year... the first was to please the market by switching the narrative to post-covid and what the company plans longer term or the second, push all that discussion back to the summer or even later and go hell for leather monetising this near term opportunity. Having chosen the second option it suggests the board are uber confident of making enormous money near term.
The numbers you are talking about Kaeren seem plausible and realistic to me.
If GM says significant revenues and names the date I believe he has nailed it already and is fine tuning. What price do we collectively think these are? Low end £5.00 = 20MM a month x12 = 240MM a year , then same for new razzle dazzle Antibody test .
Nova has the reputation now and the contacts to leverage pushing anything in their portfolio of products. Just for you CLR worried no , frustrated yes , positive MEGA xx reminds me of pick and mix in woolies as a kid , just too much to take in.
A few months time , welcome to paradise..
"Green Day" tomorrow?
I didn't think you'd like it.
Cracking song hairs more generous than I remember, misery which will be inflicted on shorters is still my fav.
@Exmex - Jeez !!
I can play guitar better than that guy.
O.K - Got it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQFtvAfHndE&ab_channel=GlobalCitizen
@Exmex - You'll have to help me with that on.
Troublesome, you could be getting confused with Billy Joe Armstrong
Tks to routy for some light listening
https://twitter.com/Routy731/status/1390006920275275782
Can anyonec recall who said they didn't want waking up till end of September .
Or any other time ?
Wish I knew the solution.
K. Good!
Worried no. Frustrated yes.
Patience in tough times is often/ usually at a premium.
We are being played like a harp.
Bottom drawer.
HOWEVER long.
Tks to Larry katalyst/cruises
https://twitter.com/Larry64450205/status/1389969432626274304