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Nope
Not quite 75%
Thank goodness.
60
Excellent thread. Thanks Hillseeker and Brochroch ..Kaeren and others for sharing. So good to get people helping each other out. I am on a 75% loss at these prices (256). It hurts but I ain’t crystallising a loss when winter is on the way and Boris still in charge. I resonate with Bluelight if he bought so high. Me too. The s/h neglect has been astounding. It’s not just the DHSC contract.
Ncyt don’t read the financial papers in their laboratory coffee breaks. I’m hanging in for as long as it takes as I know how the market works. Any share can go lower. Or the other way. I hope this new guy is not just interested in himself and sees a wider sense of responsibility. This is definitely still one to bottom drawer open-endedly.
Much appreciation to all those trying to support holders here.
@brochrock - you're welcome. Sharing useful information is what this bb is about.
I sincerely hope you make a fortune with your investment.
You are right in not calling the bottom, as every time it feels like the bottom, it seems to give a little more. With the AGM and DA's arrival imminent, I'm hoping to see an immanent turning point.
I am looking forward to the new CEO leading us on the long and winding climb out of this dark and dismal valley we have had the misfortune to drop into and onto sunnier times ahead. Patience still required though, as the path is may appear interminable to the less-resilient.
GLA
Well that's me in.
Thanks for the information HillSeeker.
I am not saying this is the bottom but there is a lot of resistence between here down.
I'm heavily underwtater on this, but the fundamentals are still good and I'm staying put. There's no debt and lots of cash, they have lots of good products coming and an expanding sales team.
As always, private 'investors' (unsuccessful, short-term traders) choose to voluntarily lose money by selling their shares below what they paid for them...
Pointless selling down here really, certainly for those of us that averaged UP last year! The fundamentals are still good, still sound and we have a brand new CEO about to take the reins and I suspect spin a whole different light on Novacyt and raise the company profile. It is as it is, the only thing that makes me angry is the fact GM will waltz away with £millions while I and many other who supported the business sit on massive losses, that is neither right or fair BUT absolutely nothing at all I/we can do about it. Even the way todays rns was worded in my view was intended to reduce the sp further, there really is no need for it. I feel by Christmas things will be looking far more rosy for us as the NHS comes under pressure (and for one who has been very poorly in hospital this week I know they ARE under huge pressure right now) and the US business takes off as I think it will. If you don't need to sell, just hold a while longer and see what happens next. Good luck to everyone, I know it's painful.
@Bluelight
every penny drop is £1k to me, I don't take the drops lightly, but short term pain for long term gain.
The short term is panning out longer that expected/desired, product development is a difficult business, especially with all the regulatory hurdles in each nation, but hoping the new CEO has the skill set to move these fantastic products and sell the company to ii.
As I have posted many times, the diagnostics market is irrevocably changing and, IMO, POC in public, private and corporate healthcare is the future - Novacyt is the future.
I could not agree any more P100. My sentiments entirely.
I would only add that the market has seemingly been ahead of the news on every occasion.
Hillseeker,
Think you got it right the first time :-)
I agree with your thoughts on shareholder comms and iis development....although the good RNS today has had negative affect on SP.....maybe the focus of the BoD is dealing with what they can influence, which is sales, product development, topline and growth ;-)
Even though on holiday folks, couldn’t resist a few more at this level. Gla
For those that have held from 1200 odd earlier this year, a 10% move at this price is equivalent to a couple of percent of their investment, its nothing. Why would anyone care what the price is right now, up our down 10-20% is utterly meaningless to may of us now.
things*
Steve - I can see the positives but I can also see the SP trend. I believed in the company hence the investment, however, other than the rally after the investor meeting, it has literally been downhill. Times have changed in 19 months and it feels like the company is well out of its depth with regards to maintaining and improving shareholder value, which is understandable given the huge growth due to the covid cash cow. Why am not selling now? Well, a 40% loss is a good place to start and I want to see if the new CEO understands how to support shareholders. The company is clearly very good at what it does but would still be a penny stock if it wasn’t for covid, however I thought they would capitalise on that cash cow to improve the company at all levels, rather than just the product lines (obviously this is key but when you enter a bigger arena you need expertise in other areas and it seems ncyt doesn’t have that). I’ve written off the money in my head and so will persevere to see how the new man in charge approaches tbjgns.
lo - consternation not constipation!
Of course you are brochrock, of course you are....
PI100 - please speak for yourself, not everyone on this BB.
To me the fundamentals continue to be extremely sound by any metrics. Whilst no company is without risk, there could be huge upside gain, whilst the downside is fairly limited, considering the 100m revenue, no debt and cash in bank. I would fill my boots if I hadn't already done so 18 months ago at similar prices.
Please don't confuse recent sentiment regarding poor communication and lack of BoD engagement with shareholders' sentiment on their company's fundamentals. The tow are quite different. The way the board has handled certain decisions, the lack of support for the SP and ineffective broker engagement with II, as well as the LTIP, are causing constipation and we are rightly concerned/protesting about it - that does not mean this is not a strong buy at these levels.
IMO, of course, DYOR, GLA
From a chartist point of view there isn't much support between here & 2.50. That is if we close at this price.
I am just waiting.......
If you can't see the positives for yourself, one asks why tf you bought in the first place and why you wouldn't sell now
Brochrock - you clearly have some insight that none of us do as the sentiment on this board is not to touch this with a bargepole. I'm currently sitting on a 40% loss (and growing) so if you have some positive insight please do share it!!
I think I will put money into these. I do wonder if another 10% loss is on the cards though.
Personally think they have shifted quite a few even at close to trade price would be beneficial to us because of the longterm gains.Will try asking Mandy why the intercompany sale was transacted.
Hillseeker , I hear you and was running calcs on diff prices for Q's , as we all are aware how important they are to our strategy of coining it in from decentralised testing. I can play with numbers but am not an accountant so wonder if there could be intercompany sales that provide a tax benefit in anyway. In other words worse case scenario the Q's now sit as inventory on Primers book for accounting purposes. Definitely need to pursue this.
OMG Kaeren, I'm not sure where I got my £10k for a machine from? I thought that was the approx price for a Q16, and Q32 would be about £15k
The only source I can find is this https://www.b3cnewswire.com/201408271104/primerdesign-launch-worlds-most-affordable-real-time-pcr-machine.html , as all current resellers invite you to give your details for a quote. This article from 2014 boasts "the World’s most affordable Real-Time PCR instrument" at £3995. So, the most they would be selling the Q16 for now is about £5k. I was out by a factor of three.
£7,424k at just under £5k each equates to about 1,500 machines sold in six months!
The significance is that, if they were all being run at full capacity (14 tests at a time) on an eight hour day, five days a week, at 90 minutes cycle time (i.e. five loads a day which allows for 10 mins change over and a lunch break), they would require:
5 x 14 (per day) x 5(per week) =350 tests per machine per week x 1500 (machines sold in H1) = 525,000 (total weekly tests)
@ 10$ a test or £7, that's over £3.5m per week to feed the machines (just the ones sold in the first six months of this year). Over the course of 50 weeks we are talking over £175m. Now that's a fairly constant use over one eight hour shift per day during an average working week. So, assume that they are only used for a quarter of this time (some will be run more, others less) we still need £45m just for the upkeep of the machines reportedly sold in H1 this year. That's enough to justify a much higher long term SP on its own.
Hence, the need to establish how many machines have really been sold since the beginning of the pandemic and to whom. IMO this is critical to calculating a substantial part of the future income predictions of the company.
For new investors, it is critical to understand that these machines can run, not just covid tests, but at least 250 other PCR tests. Labs that use these machines and Primer Design's tests (such as Katalyst Laboratories), also have an eye on the post covid scene and have already indicated a desire to expand their testing portfolios for general health check type POC screening.
IMO this is where corporate responsibly to their work force will be heading, alongside a national heath strategy to be more preemptive, as the diagnostic landscape irreversibly changes.
That's why patience is required with this investment - things are moving more quickly than ever due to the pandemic, but it will take some time to fully evolve, let alone mature, and for ii too realise what's happening in this space.
It can be scary having a large holding and seeing value eroded with the SP back at this level, but I take comfort at looking at the 5 year chart as my default. From that view, the £3 level definitely looks like a base from which the company will now grow.
IMO only. DYOR, GLA
Don't know Hillseeeker , don't know if the companies are taxed separately . I certainly want to know where they are..
Just to add further ref the Q machines:
There was a significant incentive plan (in the millions) for IT-IS management to hit targets. So, there is no doubt they scaled up manufacturing considerably and it is in black and white in the report that the revenue for H1 is £7,424k. So, they definitely have made them in the hundreds - the question is, where have they gone?
Perhaps this is a Q for the the AGM we should be asking.