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Did warn you all going private and 4p a share
Its a lifestyle business Steve CEO admitted it on conference call off to the pub at 3pm with the overdraft and beers when you losing £6m ptl
Get out with something it cannot afford to stay listed on Aim
Josey - thanks for your contributions today.
The derampers are here for a their agenda and appear to be posting under at least 3 identities - including trying to steal mine
Some private investors may get spooked by some red trades on here and a falling shareprice. I am not one of them.
The derampers have no idea whether one or more parties have 'enquired' about buying music magpie. I do not know the answer to how many / if any but (1) I would be shocked if there were not several enquires and (2) I suspect there are conversations going on or a plan to do an MBO
Finally
MMs typically drop the share price when they want to fill a big order. This would be a credible explanation for the drop. (in addition to (1) some shorters (2) one or more PIs losing patience or needing cash or (3) an II selling down)
I've been on these forum a while now. One thing I know is that when it DERAMPERS start getting more active, there is usually good news around the corner.
When it comes to the facts and not the details behind them, I won't dispute. Said all along that this business is suited to a lifestyle business structure. It overstretched with ambitious plans which simply do not work in secondary consumer products. (Different in B2B). This could comfortably be turned to a 100m company generating £5m net over a 18-24 month period. It's could do better on the bottom line with time.
Certainly opportunities in different asset classes they could easily integrate with a partnership for what's collected, thereby minimising cost.
They need to park that trading idea ... it generates no value to the business itself and at best manages to flatter the profit line until you end up the wrong side of the trade and price attrition bites you.
This was 10p recently, absolute turd show. Should have sold then with small profit. I wonder how long until we see that level again.
HH2, you can follow the narrative but lack any business acumen in your statements. It's a lot easier to navigate a company out of difficulty when your issues are below the EBITDA line generally. What management failed to do in their presentation was to properly review and discuss what happened below the line.
First you breach covenants before banks/lenders want their money back ... that has simply not happened.
You are exceptional at repeating a narrative my 13 year old son could work out having done his first year of business studies.
If you run through the worst that can happen considering they are operating within covenants:
1. A placing to add cash - not sure how much they could issue without shareholder vote. Cash would only reduce net debt since they are not planning more investment, more setting the business straight.
2. A delisting ... for which they need 75% of votes. Too much is probably in retail hands after Cannacord's exit and some of the larger funds holding won't be allowed to have their money allocated to private investment.
So it's a case of load up and sit tight. I doubt it goes below 7 to buy as too many of us are waiting for that to happen...lets see.
Come on HH2 you can do better than that can't you ... it's like amateur hour. Surely the four horsemen are on the brow of the hill and the plains are on fire?
Wait, YOU'RE LEX LUTHOR?!!?!?!
I feel the same like there's something else going on here. It feels too quiet and the lack of mention of the offer period did seem weird too - silence is deafening.
I agree totally, results were as expected, I bought more on the thought it would hit high teens after they came out. My son has a 400k share buy limit set at 7p and I'm holding tight. I'm saying there is something bigger at play, not that it's going to crumble.
It feels a little like if someone isn't 100% positive you're going to spin that they're Lex Luthor
Thanks Hedge, I guess time will tell.
@Bighand - I wasn't suggesting the value of Damian's investment was significant, I was suggesting that him remaining in, or selling up would be indicative/significant. I respect what he's done in previous ventures, he's not a chancer and he knows this industry well. He obviously has a view, which is worth watching and seeing how it plays out IMO.
To the best of my knowledge, all of my predictions have been right so far with the exception of:
(1) Net Debt of £13.1m (I thought it would be worse)
(2) Kiosks - I hoped that they were more successful than what I now suspect based on the narrative in the annual results. However, I still think they are a big asset; they just need to improve their performance and proposition
My main prediction though is that there will be a change of ownership - either an acquisition by private equity, a player in an adjacent market or perhaps an MBO. I initially predicted 40-50p as the price point. I will concede that I've revised this down to 30-40p now; given the current SP range is 7-10p vs the 10-15p range previously when i set my target.
But Big Hand - my gut/ego is telling me that something isn't quite right about your most recent posts. Perhaps you are the seller as you appear to be subtley deramping IMO.
I very much doubt this is Schroders leaving the party - I suspect this is a few shorters at work based on the fact that we have ROBSWIRE active here again AND that clown TW was talking his usual tripe about MM yesterday on his website.
I have a feeling that we may get an update soon - it would not surprise me if there was a timetable which had the date of results RNS on and then a target date to update the market on the structure. It was interesting to note that there was not one mention of the 'offer period' or status of discussion in the annual results - I think this is significant.
I don't think a £150k punt on an undervalued but well known company by a multi millionaire means much IMO, its likely 1 of 50 investments, a third will fail, a third will thrive and a third wont do much. I actually think its been a cause for conjecture. My cost is around the same, albeit with less shareholding. All of my predictions have been wrong and my gut/ego is telling me that means something isn't quite right...
Swanley
I'd not let the share price movement spook you. 100%, it will not spook Hanson
He may use it as an opportuity to buy more in the 7s (He already bought in the (7s and 8s)
Very rare for anyone to invest at 'The bottom'. I think you are underestimating Hanson if you think he would rethink or be concerned about his investment if it dropped 10%, 20%, 30%....
@Bighand are you the next Damian Hanson? My positivity is waning by the day. If you're holding anything to go by and reflected in the rest of the board members, could be crucial if we get to vote on any outcome.
Thanks Josey
Price still horribly undervalued but something bigger is at play here. I have very close to 1m shares and I'm praying the rug doesn't get ripped from under all of our feet but I have a feeling were going to be left feeling very bitter and with empty pockets.
Is this Schroders leaving the "party"?
Wouldn't it be great to move all my shares into next years ISA allowance at this very depressed value only for the share price to rocket in H2/24.
Yes, once over 1% you have to report any movement whilst the takeover period is in play. The thing is, any play for the business needs Steve Oliver and one or two others involved. It's not entirely a functioning business without them. I very much imagine that was one of the issues BT and Aurelius had.
"Hanson is still in with 1.5% - why wouldn't he be, nothing has changed since he invested from an adverse perspective."
Agreed in principle Hedge, but the major change, of course, is that his 'investment' of £147k is now down by c. 30% and valued at £102.5k.
My point being, that if he's still in, then that gives confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if he (or another 1%+ holder) will now make an offer, because the share price is depressed and the trailing high prices are c.25p. Otherwise why on earth would he stomach a c. 30% loss? Someone's been block selling chunks of 100k shares today, I count 7 so far..
Does anyone know if the market has to be notified if a 1% holder has sold?
Agreed Tylo. What's going on now is white noise. A lot of sellers who may have expected better results for a quick win and a few retail shorts. There's probably 20% here to be made in the very short term forgetting any news on the process etc.
Okay we can all agree the results were not the best however a lot of the cash burn was coming from investments into the rental business and IT development, which I’m guessing is system put in place for the kiosks, rental management etc.
The outright sales side of the business is not loss making. So as they pivot away from the rental side we should see net cash flows improve and maybe even a profit as they reduce over heads and lower capital expenditure. They didn’t specifically state that they are going to lower debt but I don’t see any better place for them to use the cash. I’ll be looking at the half year report this year to see any positive signs of a turn around.
I'd let them play Hedge. It must be conceded now that the big 50m valuations and the like are pipe dreams and £17-20m on a debt free basis might be more appropriate.
They are also not that good at what they do really as they have used no terms like share consolidation and dilution yet. Maybe if we can feed tips to them they can use it in their playbook ... they should go take a look at something like the PFC board to learn a little more from the pros!
It speaks volumes when derampers sink so low as to set themselves up another Alias to appear like my own.
What a sad existance you live.
My advice to others - make your own mind up