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Good day, some nice price consolidation around 40's, firm platform is forming ready for the Easter/Summer sales period.
Marston are in a great position now, and with their carlsberg partnership then are in a very strong position.
keep in mind there was a takeover bid of 100 during the worst of the covid period, so based on that, the share can easily rise another 150% to that level from here.
look at the rest of the market, and shares have jumped up 50% in the past months, however Marston is only up 16% since October, and has been a very healthy rise upwards.
expect this share to jump high once a big buy turns up in the next few weeks before the Easter/Summer trading period fully kicks in.
I hope you are correct because if this share price drops another 6p we are in the position we were in during lockdown when all pubs were closed !
The pub sector is gearing up for an increase in foot traffic over Easter and Summer, as consumers spending habits have normalised to the cost of living.
Alongside this and increase in visits from patrons that have stayed away over 2020/2022.
As a demographic the 18-25 have just gone through 3 years of limited socialising in pubs/bars, as such for them its a novelty they will be willing to spent money on as this will be the first year without covid being an issue.
There are circa 6 million people in this age bracket in the UK, so a large market.
As such, cash injection from this area combined with Marston's usual clients makes for an overall increase in revenue.
I fail to see many 18-25 year olds venturing out to a Marston’s pub for a ‘knee’s up’, somehow not the clientele they target
Like-for-like sales for the 16-week period to January 21 were up 12.9% compared with last year.
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs were up 14% on 2021 and up 7.3% on 2020.
Marstons have just sold 3 pubs to Red Taverns, so some extra money into Marstons pockets.
And now we are starting the Easter and Summer sales period starting, and looks like there will be a massive volume of 18-25 year olds flocking to pubs after years of lock downs, so expect a lot of cash to pour into Marstons this year.
The NAV per share of £1.02 and the evidence of the trading recovery to around / a little above pre-Covid levels, and reduction of energy costs globally (gas especially, although the tariffs were fixed already), make this an attractive investment.
The debt is of course problematic but the figures shared that it is being clearly reduced.
Whether takeover offers like those of early 2021 (£1 per share was the highest one IIRC) is a question: interest rate (hence the cost of borrowing) were much lower back then, but the SP is now lower but with higher NAV than 2 years ago, so this company is effectively cheaper than it was so does remain very very attractive vs early 2021.
Monthly Marstons meal out with Vouchers on Saturday. Good to see how busy it was. Cheers
Been clocking marstons for a few months, now for me seems a good time to jump onboard. Debt is a concern but should be manageable with a full 12 months trading with no immediate need to raise additional funds. Looks like i will be swapping budweiser for carlsberg .
steady build of the share price since Nov 2022, no big spikes or ramps, with lots of room for the share price to grow and keep rising into the Easter and Summer trading periods.
The demographic going to Marstons has not really been affected by the macroeconomics as they are generally older customers that are cash and asset rich.
2 RNS out with The Wellcome Trust taking a 3% stake, and Coltrane Asset Management increasing holding by 1%.
The trading statement says:
"Like-for-like sales for the 16-week period to 21 January 2023 were +12.9% vs. FY2022"
And now we have the Spring and Summer trade, with the coronation due and everyone looking to get out an about following covid/gas crisis.
DYOR - GLA
Sorry if I got the early rise on any negativity and it really hurts me to say - but I also keep an eye on the Far East markets -who by the way also are starting to enjoy British Brewed Ale over their own, which is not surprising considering the Pedigree we have here, and we should now see increased sales as a result of them reducing restrictions post pandemic. Thanks for helping my memory with that one. DYOR. ATB.
Discharger
Rather than rely on your own enthusiasm articulated at 02.00a.m. you would do better to read Shore Capital's comments as it is not at all bullish on the 40% stake in the brewery.
Rather than continually pump your own opinion it is often wiser to look at other peoples, even sceptically, especially those with knowledge and then hope to come to a considered viewpoint.
Particularly relevant as you last started this round of pumping when MARS were circa 80p !!!
Still a nice loss to carry forward in the current tax year as our CGT allowance reduces by halfish in April & halves again next year too, although most people would prefer to pay cgt after taking profits rather than defray losses to c/f !
BTW anyone looking at City AM now may not now see the Shore report, as they presently have an afternoon edition up, but it is still on the Citywire site and is really informative, imho.
The 3 month chart supports my enthusiasm. I am glad I got through eventually although some do take longer to respond but fortunately the Market is already onto this now.
FD
If super discharger did his homework better he could have reported that Shore Capital today have re-assessed MARS and are now more bullish, but nothing like S/discharge's usual pump, pump, pump.
It is worth a read and is one of the top stories on the City AM site today
20% from a virtual all time low is hardly stratospheric increase when compared with other opportunities.Use of the venture with Carlsberg is only beneficial to the Danish partner who have longer term plans. So far the JV gave MARS a lump sum at the outset which we were told would be mainly used to fund further investment opportunities. The outcome was a little different as most of the consideration was used to pay down debt (DYOR is a very apt phrase here)
Any pretension of expansion within Europe and elsewhere, without further shareholder funding, is an illusion given MARS pre-existing debt pile, which incidentally loan agreements have already been breached. Until debt is well below the £1b target, risks here remain moderately high.
Fullers and M&B, with whom you have shares, have debt levels significantly lower than MARS.
Value of sales is all very well, it is profit element experienced Long term investors will view.
Fairtrader-THANKS but allow your mouse to scroll up a little and you will see a very steep climb for the past 3 months share price. Hopefully you have been building like I and no doubt other have been doing for sometime. DYOR.
Also have another look at the recent Whitbread results and how there expansion has gone European into the largest European Economy? Erh Now Marstons have a joint interest with a European Beer Company too don't they? Can you see a trend here that expansion is not all about the UK distribution? Whereas Fullers, M&B and Ors are stuck at the Signals!
The update is inline with competitors within the sector, however the results do not segregate the inclusion of the Brain's estate which was taken over in February 2021. Marstons took over more or less 150 pubs from Brains, the number was slightly diminished when it was discovered a number of the Welsh estate were in very poor state of repair. Based on those numbers, the managed and leased pub estate increased by more than 10%. It is fair to assume, in the absence of any validated income, the Brain's estate has contributed more or less 10% to the compared figures, which is food for thought!
It is well publicised how well sales have increased within the hospitality sector, however it is profit generated from those sales that must be assessed,particularly at a time when costs have and are rising exponentially.
The next 3 months are going to be critical for every pub/hotel chain as both Whitbread and M&B have warned.
Making 6% in a day is fine for Traders, of which am sure there are several on this BB. For LTH's a lot of patience and fair winds are necessary to get MARS back to the heady days of 4 years ago.
DYOR
The AGM today & Board armed with the results have helped. If one looks now at Morning Star now one can see the growing list of major shareholders, and many are fund/pension managers who can add very easily which could tell us all something! If anyone had bought yesterday they would have made 6% today, but I also expect the price to follow the trend line for the past 3 months, which is a steady increase and return to favour. (especially over the more City and Town related competition) which are affected by travel/rail strikes) as Marston's concentrate on the local community they now have an advantage and they know it!
Have noticed that normally with this stock when good news is announced the SP drops, so it was a big shock to see even a little rise this morning
what type of good news or results is it going to take to get this share moving,it seems to be held down even when good things are announced ??
The fundermentals look attractive. Will place this on my watch list.
Gla
Mary. I trust your keeping good ?.
I am trading a particular stock.
If you find time please look at my last post.
Warm regards.
Marston's well done! Seems like we were right to suggest an upward trend line will now continue past the AGM and based on the presentation and results issued today.
Advantages over competitors in the current climate helps with Marston's concentration on community pubs is now working better than expected with the underlying build up in sales mentioned.
Marston looking like it is being run very effectively now with a switched on B.O.D. I am sure the growth fund managers will see this too.
no real surprise that strikes has little impact....plenty more to come in this recovery. HOLD 4 GOLD.