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Superman
Does someone pay you by the word for the verbiage you write ?
Just wondering...
Market is responding to the very encouraging Marston's report readily available to all in the public domain. Nothing more needs to be said. Wonder what we will be at Christmas? Especially if they have Turkey on the Menu, and snails are off - and if we win the World Cup! Could see a new beer coming? Maybe we could call it "its coming home" to a Marston's pub near you! With or without free vouchers! Good luck FT with your Mitchells and Butlers if you can get to one by train?
SC do you really read company reports? I suggest you do so. MARS report states plans are in place to counter the effects of the cost of living crisis. It is there in black and white.
Do you understand comparitors at all? The comparison between a relatively well off family and one struggling is to demonstrate how DEBT can affect people and businesses. Do you get it?
It is curious, months ago you boasted having a Tesla, now it seems the cost of living has caught up with you, or is it pure invention to suit your strategy?
MARS have had locked in interest rates, but now they have breached the waivers agreed 2 years ago when rates were rock bottom. The rate market has changed significantly, MARS are negotiating new waivers. Does it occur to you as interest rate have changed and Funders now hold the whip hand as breaches have occured, higher rates are a strong possiblity in return for waiver agreements.
You really need to read the annual report available on Marston's Website under Shareholder Information.
Read it and increase your fiscal knowledge of the company.
He is wrong again isn't he. FT you need to study the charts- or are you saying the Board of Directors are now issuing illegal statements to mislead shareholder? Marston's also have lower interest rate deals on any debt -unlike your mortgage. They also have hedged their fuel costs. You really do not see what is in front of you do you. For the record if I did have an Electric car they also provide Charging points (should you have one but I doubt it). I do not have a mortgage either so a bad example. For my cars actually my best car for winter is an old petrol one but the best Snow car I have ever had! not sure where Clacton came from -but keep trying -why would I live in Clacton they sound like a place that suffers from power cuts? Best to keep warm down a Marston's Pub in the warm by the fire thinking up stupid replies on your bar mat whilst having your porky scratchings. I do like the fact Marston's are now using cost saving electric lorries on trial however, ha, ha! They really are ahead of the game. (Although I also own Whitbread shares and you will next be insulting their Shire Horses) more reliable than Trains! Better luck with your Mitchells and Butlers currently down 3.70%. against Marstons up 2.21% what was that you said yesterday about the market knowing the difference between the two?
"Long term sustained growth", really? Why do you think provision is being made for the effects of the cost of living crisis? A crisis no one knows it's longevity. It is widely projected the transport stike over the Holiday period will have a devastating impact on Hospitality Businesses.
Any business that has huge debts are at a disadvantage to competitors. It is like you having a mortgage of say £100K and your neighbour has one of £250K. The effect of interest rate changes is proportionately greater on your neighbour's residual disposable income than you. You can afford a holiday to the Bahamas he, if lucky will be more likely to afford a holiday to Clacton ( with apologies to Clacton). You can afford your all singing all dancing Tesla and your neighbour makes do with a clapped out banger which does not comply with ULEV regs.
The point should be eminently clear....debt is a mill stone around the neck of a borrower.
Long term sustained growth over a longer period of time for me here mate! Looks like the day traders have had their cake today with your recommendation of Mitchells and Butlers at the moment?
I thought the most recent Marston's business financial report out was very clear from Management (Even I could read it, ha, ha) and credit where its due someone has put a considerable amount of time into it, and was certainly an improvement on past years -so well done to the B.O.D. Lets hope England can also give the ****erel a good roasting! GLA
SC guess you have shares in Shepherd and Neame by promoting one of their beers!! Jolly good beer too. Well done
Must be good news with 2 shorts on the bounce. Think I should have a sticker on my Pc with a G&T glass with a cross through it, just like the old Spitfires used to have when an enemy was shot down! Happy days are here again for Marston's -some on England and extra time sells more pints!
FD
Superman puffed them at 80, sold them at under 50 then went in again higher up (by his own postings), (they are now 39), thought RF was wonderful and if anyone posts an alternative viewpoint he can never be bothered to review it & consider points made but acts as if he is the headmaster of the BB and is never wrong.
By his own admission he does appear to have the reverse Midas touch...
SC how do you know I am not into M&B. For all the rhetoric and to balance your positive stance it was worth pointing out MAB's debt is far lower than MARS and therefore the margin for profits are better with MAB, You can disagree all you like but MAB did decide to raise funds during the pandemic MARS, led then by RS, resisted the opportunity. Wonder if Andreas regrets that opportunity, now they have to go back to funders and agree further waivers. Remember this is the 2nd time 2 years the company have needed to go cap in hand. As I recall HSBC passed the Loan notes to BNP Parabas whose lending protocols are a little different to HSBC. We will have to see what happens on the 31st December.
IMO there is one man to blame for the predicament MARS is in.
You appear to forget the BOD are making provisions for the effects of the cost of living crisis. Reading that only the low income earners will be affected is sheer nonsense. Many middle income earners are facing large increases in Mortgages as well as energy cost etc, so proportionately the majority of the population are being hit
The best chance here is for a predator to come in at a fair price and strip out assets of value. The Brewery once our Crown Jewels is controlled by Carlsberg and as I have predicted they will wait for an opportunity to gain total control.
The Brain;s estate is worthless as an asset as Brain's retain the freeholds
Fairtrader then go and buy some Mitchells and Butlers then if you prefer them and stop with your so positive comments regarding Marston's. The market has not yet made comparisons whereas figures released today have taken into account all aspects of the Company including their low rated hedged debt which is reducing every day. In fact whilst inflation is high debt in real terms is reduced. Perhaps Marston's should start a share buy back with the extra money from earnings over Mitchells and Butlers then? Many on here that were doomsters were quoting how great Mitchells were in the pandemic - well in my opinion they do not look so great now with reduced earnings over Marston's and with this years earnings picking up quicker too. Lets hope England can stay in the World Cup too as sales have risen by another 50%! We should get broker upgrades any time soon!
Don't forget a very important comparitor.
M&B overall debt is 40% of the pile Marston, support.
Judging by todays moves, investors and the Market prefer Mitchells and Butler.
Marston' pre tax profits for 2022 had swing to an u/lying profit of £37.7m from a loss of £101.3m. i.e. a positive Swing of £139m. Earnings per share came in at 4.3p, compared to losses of 13.6p per share in the 2021 financial period.
Mitchells and Butlers just reported on operating profit a swing from a pre-tax loss of £42.0m a year ago to a pre-tax profit of £8.0m in 2022. Earnings per share came to 2.2p, a marked improvement on the prior year's 11.5p per share loss.
So it appears Marston's have turned around with a greater move to profit than M&B which must show the only reason they have not moved up comparatively today is due to sentiment and before others have had time to digest. Good time to buy here in my opinion. I will stock up with some more while the going is good!
If conditions are so rosy why is the company engaged with funders to agree further Waivers?
Waivers were previously agreed almost 2 years ago. Those waivers involved the transfer of loans to BNP Parabas, who are a somewhat harder bank to agree terms.
The brewery arm is not doing so well otherwise why have the BOD advised dividends ( profits) from CMBC will be Zero next year.
Morgan Stanley's purchase is more to do with some predator seeking to asset strip. This may be the way forwards to at least give something back to those many loyal LTH's. The overwhelming outlook for the sector is not bright.
Marstons big disadvantage is the huge debt pile, promised to be reduced by 2024. Guess a £9m reduction is a start but a hell of a long way to go.
Pub operating profit rocketed to £115.4m from £5.7m year-on-year, while the company's share of the profits from the Carlsberg Marston's Brewing Company (CMBC) came in at £3.3m, swinging from a loss of £14.5m a year ago.
Looking at its underlying performance, Marston's reported total revenue of £799.6m, up from £401.7m, while it swung to a profit before tax of £37.7m from a loss of £101.3m.
Earnings per share came in at 4.3p, compared to losses of 13.6p per share in the 2021 financial period.
Marston's net asset value per share improved to 102p at the end of the 2022 financial year, up from 64p at the end of the 2021 period.
Looks like they are coming back fast from lock down and have an expanded estate to run at that. Very clever move to take on the Brains pubs in my opinion.
just a few points:
1) most pub operators' share prices were down today, so it was a sector-wide share price drop
2) Morgan Stanley bought 5% of the share on the 25th Nov, and they would have done a lot of due diligence prior to the purchase
3) we are now out of lockdowns and pubs are being visited
4) marston demographic are generally mid-class an this group have continued to spend, inflation and the rest of the bs of the market is only really affecting working class (lower incomes)
5) the marston / carlberg relationship is a solid statement and fortress of cost reductions and growth
Marstons rejected a takeover offer of 100 for a reason, they know things are cyclical, and we are at the bottom currently and on the way back up over the next couple of years
FD
As usual you have encapsulated the essential numbers, when I looked at the rns this morning my first thought was "these are better than expected" followed by "why haven't the shares shot up, or even firmed a bit", then upon looking at them I realised they weren't as good as I first thought, having seen your post I went back in to look in greater detail, & you're right.
IMHO I believe that the estate is unlikely to be saleable at their valuations, commercial property has taken a walk in the park in the last few months & with the brewery not showing much of a divi for MARS 40% stake the real bet is on the estate, which is weighed down by debt in a rising interest rate environment, less than ideal...
The accounts need to be fully understood. The basics are: =
Debt reduced £9m to £1.59Billion
Projected dividend from CMBC for 2023 ...... Nil
1/3 of properties revalued in July 2022.........RICS latest quarterly report (November) records a significant reduction in commercial properties.
BOD report breaches of Lending covenants will happen in 2023 and negotiations are ongoing with Lenders to achieve waivers. These negotiations are hoped to complete by 31st December 2022
BOD aware of cost-of-living crisis and are prepared for a 5% reduction in sales and allowing for below inflationary costs, margins and profits will suffer. Consequently, the BOB have prepared a crisis plan...... reduced maintenance of properties and Capital expenditure reduced for 2023.
Against this background, hard to see how Marstons could be in a position to pick up cheap estates.
There is much to digest in the Accounts.
DYOR
Did you not read the RNS, they have reduced the debt, and have a plan in place till 2026 for further debt reduction.
Taking all things into account, and a business/sector that was hammered from 2020 to 2022, they are doing very well.
Fact is, if Marstons can survive where smaller operators collapse, they will be able to buy up estates on the cheap and consolidate more of the available market to themselves.
Having profit and available cash with the Carlsberg partnership under them puts Marstons in a very powerful position.
Claire,
What about the debt? How will this be repaid? Very small reduction in this period......
BB2
Marstons have survived the worst of lockdowns and the current inflation situation.
as such, as rivals close venues this will mean more money going to marston = more profit
golden opportunity from here to make a lot of money, or for another takeover bid at 100
Ok, just taken a small position, may hold or may trade in new year after Xmas update..
Net asset value of £1.02, lets liquidate the lot and take the money.
Peakyblinders
FYI been investing since mid 1980s. Seen most things during tha time, good and bad.
Nice mansplaining though.
Good luck