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"The group has been reassured that there is no disagreement between Carlsberg's auditors and CMBC management and we should be in position to announce Marston's results within the next week. The delay finalising the CMBC audit is entirely procedural and outside of Marston's control," Marston's added.
Also for the new trading year just starting looking forward a very positive statement :-
Since the end of its last financial year, trading has been "encouraging", Marston's said. Like-for-like pub sales are up 6.8% year-on-year.
During the two days when England has played in the World Cup, sales were up about 30% year-on-year. Drink sales alone were up around 50%.
In addition, bookings for the key Christmas period are so far ahead of 2019 levels.
"Total bookings for the Christmas period are currently higher than in 2019 and in line with our plans, albeit walk-in trade typically accounts for a significant proportion of overall sales over the Christmas trading period," Marston's added.
One must be positive and it could be they are simply adding up and making the most of recent improving figures which appear to be very encouraging on sales per Marston's release? i.e. Europe are in the World Cup too? In fact if the figures are not good then it makes the Management of Marston's look like they have just issued a false statement (which is illegal and so unlikely). I suspect Marston's will have already been aware of the figs outlined when they released their raised statement!
One does not always have to be negative and sometimes in life things turn around for the better! ie. look at todays share price a bargain if you ask me and time to top up!!
Strange to read results are delayed due to CMBC figures not being signed off by Auditors. Is there a dispute between JV partners? Accounts are usually pawed over and agreed many days before incorporation into Holding companies. Could it be Carlsberg are wanting figures released which will put Marstons in a bad place?
The RNS is interesting, someone building a position?
Good result for England tonight & I bet Marston's are pleased for ongoing Sales (based on their release late yesterday). The longer interest is shown in the tournament the more they will appear to be benefit I suppose? Perhaps at long last they have let the Qatar out the bag -ha,ha! Also helped by the fact they run local pubs and the recent train strikes might help pull sales back to locals at home sales from demand than they otherwise would have lost to other pub chains that would rely on town and city consumption and hence commuters? Only a thought? GLA
Looks like far more encouraging news for now and possibly going forward. See Morning Star Market release. :-
Since the end of its last financial year, trading has been "encouraging", Marston's said. Like-for-like pub sales are up 6.8% year-on-year.
During the two days when England has played in the World Cup, sales were up about 30% year-on-year. Drink sales alone were up around 50%.
In addition, bookings for the key Christmas period are so far ahead of 2019 levels. Far better news!
LOL, sorry lejjb, I was reading today's one ..Jefferies cuts Marston's price target to 27 (45) pence - 'underperform',
But, yes nice to the 75p view,
"Buy with a target price of 75p is its view."
will we ever see a buy rating for this lot again, in our life time ? I do wonder..
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/999436/marston-s-to-emerge-stronger-from-pub-sector-s-grim-winter-broker-999436.html
It's from the broker so always positively biased. Two interesting things:
- the SP could have tanked in spite of the quasi-profit warning given: it did not and was moderately stable instead.
- this MIGHT have helped flush out traders / investors who had doubts about the company (speculative from my part).
On balance, this note has been useful IMO.
(Correction - I meant info about the nature of the holding relevant to the swap.)
I don't see any info about the nature of the holding - except that it's not shares, so it might not be the same level of exposure in the company.
Obviously on behalf of someone else but interesting none the less. Market hasn’t reacted yet.
Respect!
lejjb
Understood, thanks for the conversation, always good to hear a sensible & different perspective than ones own.
Just one more point: pubs are certainly not the healthiest sector right now (as most consumer retail businesses in the UK) but Marston's is in an odd position as its SP is treated as if we were still in the middle of the pandemic, pre-vaccine and pre- Carlsberg deal. And it was explicit that it had some of its energy deals fixed before everything went tits up until 2025. So while margins and demand will be affected by the current events, it is still in a healthy position vs other large pub chains (except maybe Young's that's surprisingly doing well) and its marcap is priced in as if it were still at substantial risk of going under due to Covid.
So it's not a screaming buy, the situation is more mixed but not fully bad. Thus I rely on TA even more here to give me some more basic guidance.
I rarely believe anyone who claims to be a pure chartist and still makes money, but charts are a useful tool amongst others to gauge sentiment.
I just don't overly rely on them and I try to be as exacting as possible with charts, i.e. I want very clear signals or I tend to exit my positions.
lejjb
Yes I get the downside protection bit which is probably much more effective than a simple stop loss.
I am just a bit cynical about reading too much into charts, they can be a great pointer or guide at times, providing one is aware that many people are coming to the same conclusion looking at a similar chart.
Sadly pubs & other hospitality shares have so many unexpecteds thrown at them currently, (labour shortage, power costs being just 2), that past performance as on charts has less relevance is what I'm really thinking.
I roughly ended up at break even (I use leveraged trading.) But my primary concern wasn't to make money on intraday or 1-3 day movements, it was to protect my capital. If that means I might get back in for a deal that's not as good, so be it, at least I aim to keep my losses in check first and foremost.
And TA (good one, so not most of what's posted on Twitter is utter rubbish) does have a some self-defeating aspect like you rightly pointed out: pros and algos tend to go for the strongest signal . So it's a balancing exercise. But one aspect that mirrors what you mention is that many people avoid mentioning their targets for that very reason - or many who do give vastly inflated ones. Or they have several intermediate targets, taking profits along the way.
Really ?
Has it made you any money, changing your mind on movements of less than the bid ask spread on the stock seems rather odd to me, & I suspect many others.
If TA was all you cracked it up to be you might find everyone was doing it, then it becomes self defeating.
Learn about serious TA, bother looking at the charts that I actually posted, read again what I’ve written and then see whether you’ll say the same thing.
When a pattern has been broken, you have to reassess your position. Better doing it asap before it gets too late to preserve one’s capital.
And note that I didn’t give a downwards target when I said « “mildly bearish”, because that bearishness was indeed only mild and the outcome not clear at all.
The large intraday swings of the SP are the reason for my subsequent re-reassessment.
lejjb
Please don't think I am cynical, but 8 days ago, stock was 39.64 & "going to low 80's", yesterday stock 37.12 "mildly bearish", today stock is 38.14 "looking good again".
Are you for real or just having a laugh ?
Serious question...
Pattern roughly back in play and broken through the oblique resistance again - the past 2-3 trading days were brutal.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NLlC6FEX/
We're also now above the volume shelf, the next one is in the high 40's, and the momentum indicators are all pointing up. Looking good again.
Pattern now broken, mildly bearish now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/CEKbHWYZ/
Low 80s within the next 2-3 months in my view based on the volume profile - the above chart starts from the day when the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine was announced.