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Based on their last report and looking at this coming year things look very good for Marstons:
Like-for-like sales for the 16-week period to 21 January 2023 were +12.9% vs. FY2022.
Total retail sales in the Group's managed and franchised pubs were up 14.0% on last year and up 7.3% vs FY2020.
The Group's electricity costs hedged until the end of September 2023, with no change to earnings guidance.
The Group's gas price is fixed until the end of March 2025 with no additional incremental spend anticipated.
Andrew Andrea, CEO, commented:
"Whilst we still have certain cost challenges to navigate in 2023, we are well-positioned to continue to progress our strategy and are encouraged by the level of consumer resilience experienced to date.....
Marston's pub estate is well-invested, and our geography and proposition lends itself to benefit from underlying consumer trends. Whilst still early in the New Year, trading momentum continues to build, and our primary focus remains to meet our strategic goals of achieving £1 billion sales"
Your only looking at past figures.
I prefer to work on rolling figures from analysts.
the estate properties are worth £2b
the pub business is making £40m a year net profit
Marstons own 40% of the Carlsberg Marston partnership worth about £500m
Current debt is actually £1,216 million (see Preliminary Results for 52 weeks ended 1 Oct 2022 RNS)
Taking into account debt they still have a valuation of around £2b.
£2b / 660m shares = £3 per share.
Net profit actually expected to be 38 million.
And net debt an eye watering 1,800 million.
Yes they have 2,500 million in assets, but buy the time they have paid the tax bill they will have nothing...
One to watch for sure, but that's about it.
expect a great rise in price on the way to the summer:
£2b property portfolio
Pub Revenue: £799.6 million = Profit: £115.4 m
40% of Carlsberg Marston brewery with a potential £500m/annual = £200m
rough potential valuation: £3b
660m shares = £4.50 (ish) a share
so 1000% upside from here, lol
DYOR GLA
Bebold - good idea I have been doing the same. Have a larger number now than I did have. The trade has been coming back and with less going abroad likely to continue to show increasing sales over previous numbers. What with post pandemic sports in full swing with Football supporters in our pubs, as well as Rugby fans. The World post pandemic is now a different place and the entertainment stocks show a great opportunity after being hit so low. Marston will benefit from increasing home sales too and economy of scale with the Carlsberg partnership and no problems dealing in the EU. The brains pubs have been a bonus and a useful addition to give a wider audience across the UK. I understand sales are also increasing Worldwide with a growing taste for good quality beer. I see Brewdog also moving into the China market with an announcement today.
Shame the same £200 voucher hunters just keep their boring negativity going every time they enter their words despite no one listening to them as their always has the same drone lacking in substance or fact! GLA.
Next update will be downbeat, pubs from Dec 31st are empty for 2 months. Time to buy then if you have faith for the future here..
CGT liabilities! Do you mean losses here used to offset Gains elsewhere?
Concentrate on facts not hopes.
Retail prices may be increasing only to maintain margins. All brewing costs have increased significantly. Malting Barley, Hops , Salaries and even glass has increased, not to forget distribution costs. Turning over £1B is fine but at what cost?
Dismissing interest cost so frivolously is not sensible, the Company have already admitted at the low interest rates, Loan repayment agreements have been breached. Is that good financial management?
One poster seems to advocate liquidating assets which would return a handsome return to shareholders on current SP. Asset stripping may suit some, doubt the BOD will allow that debate. The opportunity with Platinium was rejected, but who knows another Hedge fund may come along eventually.
Other companies within the sector have warned of difficult times these next few months, are they wrong and prophets here right?
Dipped my toes in & bought 30k worth today at 38p, this for me is a fantastic opportunity as I personally see Mars as a great recovery stock , I guess time will tell GLA
Profit taking today for tax year end cgt liabilities.
However the Marston/Carlsberg brewing partnership has finally given in and from 22nd prices for Beer will be increasing between 11-12%. This is following the likes of Wetherspoons and ors who have already raised. Demand must still be high to do this but profit margins will now increase to boost sales numbers where the last statement from the CEO stated the aim to get sales over £1Billion in a year. So any business loans fall in significance to sales (which are fixed at low rates anyway). Please do not listen to shorts who are only ever negative to feed their own belly's!
retail and entertainment as a whole is drifting down with the usual post xmas pre spring lull.
Nows the time to load up to make money on the spring/summer rise for those sectors.
marstons in a great position, £2b property, and the Carlsberg Marston partnership.
even with debt considered this company should be worth £2b, about £3 per share.
All my leisure stock down today, just one of those days
Trending south last few days and 3% drop today. Anyone any ideas why ?
Lots of big buys compared to only small sells now.
Market getting ready to move back up towards 100's with spring and summer.
Xmas 2022 was 12% higher, making sure that this FY 2022/2023 will be great for Marston's!
New Carlberg Marston's partnership now set up and profitable.
Property portfolio worth £2billion.
Massive buy just been passed through, looking at the trades prices at time this appears to be a buy:
Date/Time: 16-Feb-23 @ 14:17:25
Price: 40.0425
Shares: 1,543,331
Cost: £617.99k
time to load up!
Wishful thinking, Karl. No harm in hoping. The financial structure tends to err on the side of caution. The debt burden will anchor the SP until the promised reductions materialise. The recent Loan breaches ( for the 2nd time) will have alerted experienced investors but not casino operators.
Others have now realised the real value of Marstons !
Trying to shake the tree and hold the line to gather up as many shares as possible while they can.
This should be moving back to the 60's by the summer, lots of upside from here.
Maybe even another takeover bid of 100 before the price naturally rises.
Time to buy and hold for an easy payday.
Current net assets as at year end were less than £650m. This value took into account a partial Property valuation conducted in July 2022, since when according to RICS qtly review, commercial property values have declined.
Value of assets are only as good as a willing buyer is prepared to pay.
The asset value attributable the JV with Carlsberg is questionable as is the income and dividends being quoted.
The other critical issue is Loan Breaches and the consequential variances agreed in December with Funders. The Loan waivers, as I understand are up for review at the end of March. As a relatively short waivers was agreed, it is concievable Funders are keeping a very close eye on income and profitablity before a firm agreement on rates going forwards. It is highly likely, because terms have already been breached, the company will be faced with elevated interest rates. Something to watch closely.
The best value, 105p from Platinum, was rejected by Ralph Findlay some 2 years ago.
AIMO. DYOR
my sources:
https://www. marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/ financials/2022/annual-report-and-accounts.pdf
https://www. marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/ financials/2023/trading-statement-jan.pdf
@Dad413252 even with the debt secured against the property estate the company would be worth over a billion.
2022 Numbers:
Pub Rev: £799m
Pub Profit £27.7 m
Carlsberg Marstons: £22.7m
Property Assets: £2.1b
Debt: £1.2b
source: https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/financials/2022/annual-report-and-accounts.pdf
Good trading times for 2023 are now here based on levels of Xmas 2022:
Like-for-like sales for the 16-week period to 21 January 2023 were +12.9%
In the following eight weeks likefor-like sales were +19.2% vs FY2022.
Source: https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/financials/2023/trading-statement-jan.pdf
A massive opportunity here, the company assets are worth billions:
40% share of carlsberg marsons,
Property estate worth £2b
for £0.4 you get a share worth £2
of course, DYOR, GLA
Don’t forget the debt!
The takeover bid for 100 last year was a bargain considering the true valuation on assets puts Marston closer to 200 a share.
Going to keep buying this one and buying the rise as there is a ton of upside.
Solid business, property assets, and owning 40% of the Carlsberg Marston Brewery, the worth of this company should be more in the £1b MCAP zone.
Looks good today
Revenue in 2022, was a reduced trading period due to Covid and costly due to the energy crisis.
As such, we can expect 2023 revenue to be much higher judging by Xmas 2022 12% rise.
2022 Revenue from Marstons Pub Estate:
Revenue £799.6 m
Net Profit £27.5 m
Property and net assets
The Group value of the estate is now £2.1 billion
Carlsberg Marston’s Brewing Company (CMBC) Revenue:
Direct income from CMBC of £3.3 million.
Dividends of £19.4 million were received.
Total = £22.7m
So if we say take the Pub Revenue and CMBC and give a ten-year multiplier we get £490m.
And we still have the Property estate worth £2.1b
this is against a debt of £1,216 million
that gives a company valuation of £1.37b
So with £1.37b valuation divided by 660m shares gives £2 a share valuation