The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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The Carlsberg/Marstons Brewery merger was referred by the European Union and NOT CAMRA.
The CMA have asked for representations from Parties interested in the merger this will no doubt have included CAMRA. The CMA will also be investigating many aspects relating to the proposed merger, intending to make an initial decision by 3rd week of October. The initial decision will be as to whether or not an in depth (stage 2) inquiry is necessary. Any view the decision is a formality is misleading and should be ignored.
The supposition that the CMA would not wish to deny the Consumer of choice, as without the merger Marstons could fail, is rubbish. Just examine that scenario being put forward by a "confirmed" investor, that beers would disappear is nonsense as it can be almost certain a Liquidator would sell off the individual Breweries either separately or as a whole....there are many Venture Capitalists with deep pockets.
The CMA will act in a way it's brief requires and some of the nonsense being peddled here should be dispatched to the bin.
For more immediate concerns Investors, of any stock, are going to need nerves of steel during the coming days, as I warned months ago given the ramifications created by COVID, there is worse to come. Hope like WB investors have kept their powder dry as the time is approaching when significant value and opportunities are going to emerge. Even then care and research is essential. More on this later.
Today is going to be a very turbulent ride in the Hospitality sector.
Keep your nerve.
bar
No, I prefer my share holdings to rise. I profited from purchasing more shares at lower levels than the current one, but I don't want to see them back there.
Putting Barchildren to one side - The CMA investigation was after CAMRA felt the merger for Marstons would result in less choice and less beers sold if it were to succeed. Well for the hard of learning let me tell you if Marstons was to fail then there would indeed be a whole lot less beers sold than now, and so the CMA are hardly going to have their failure on their own conscience. So it is more than likely be approved. Fortunately like my learned friend I also sit on a large amount of cash and so look forward to the stock market falls for longer term gains. i.e. I do not have to worry about daily changes unlike some on here who seem more concerned than me. I do not jump on those who have not invested when the share price rises and naturally it shows those that that do when the price falls are no longer holders -everyone to their own.
@Super-ramper
I am fascinated why you seem to think that anyone who dares to express even a slightly different opinion to your own is a "day trading shorter" ? Many of us have exchanged differing views which is surely the point of these boards, to evaluate different opinions to be better informed, anyone who thinks that puffing a stock up constantly on the LSE board in the hope it might make the price rise is clearly deluded.
The only "once second richest man in the world" I can think of who made comments on stock markets strategies is Warren Buffett. He also once said "forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster, they tell you nothing about the future".
Go figure.
Well the benefit might be for an alternative view the fall today and scaremongering will help the firm gain approval from the CMA to allow the merger with Carlsberg this as well as the post Brexit benefits that will outweigh the CAMRA concerns and arguments that less beer will be sold I feel is nonsense. When Marstons have won four world beer awards it means more marketing and sales in "super" markets during any lock down if one ever comes and greater sales. However I am not a shorter I still see this share post deal at over 73p - I will be happier then - I can / will wait. My old boss once said if you look to buy shares for less than two years you are in the wrong share. He used to be the second richest man in the World. Believe the day trading shorters if you want I am happy with my holding which will turn for the better here very soon in fact the lower the price the more likely we will unfortunately become a complete take over target which will be a great traditional loss.
@do8erman
If LTI's pet hate is "going forward" he should be quite chirpy today as they are now "going backward".
Apologies for the gallows humour but I couldn't resist it......
if the announcement is that should the R rate not fall below a set % in a set period of time then we will enter full lockdown measures again, then agreed with pubs closed again for an unspecified period of time they will indeed drop to that kind of level - again. if this scenario pans out, then at 23-27p i would say they are a good long term buy, any more than that and the risk attached is just too great, as they are not in control of their own destiny 'going forward' (that was for you LTI).
Glad i bought in here on Friday.........................
that is where these are headed.
well super-ramper your wild 73p projection approx 48 hours ago seems a long way off from 39.3p, i do hope nobody paid too much attention and decided to buy on such comment!...i'm certainly better out than in, but thanks all the same!
"you are better in than out - as we will fly back up to 73p or so in my opinion. For many it will be too late for them to get back in as the price could rise overnight!"
'' going forward!''
A pet hate. It is superfluous.
Yes, any good news is welcome. I will have a hobgoblin a bit later.
Thanks for your comments of sympathy - There is life after Death afterall - Marstons have just won Four Titles in the World beer Awards - this is a big World Wide win for them and will no doubt help future Beer sales - well Done Marstons who have pedigree too! Great news for this Company going forward! I am pretty sure we will now be a target for many World Beer Companies at these silly low share prices. See link below :-
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/hobgoblin-celebrates-top-beer-titles.aspx
Great morale boost for the brewers that have been finally been released.
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/hobgoblin-celebrates-top-beer-titles.aspx
Bought some more at 42.40 and we are already 2% up on the day...something is brewing!
Sold out last week @53p
Going to watch and wait before i come back in
But cant see much good news
Sorry about your loss. please all watch Dr John Campbells videos on Vitamin D. This guy should be our Government health secretary
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqZLMoLvhgk
PM01 - really sorry to hear your news. We recently lost my Mother -in-law aged 90 but they put that down as old age. My own Mother died young from cancer and so I feel sorry for all those who need alternative treatments to Covid. Covid appears to have taken over the world, but it has been shown those who have had it (some do not even know they have) if they get a second wave will suffer less as their own body can deal with it quite easily. The second wave has been shown to have a lot less strength. Based on the last Equity value this share is already underpriced and so I do not feel we will drop much as we always gain support in the 40pences and soon return back up to 50p for the time being. If the deal is confirmed we will fly so you are better in than out as we will then fly back up to 73p or so in my opinion. For many it will be too late for them to get back in as the price could rise overnight! I am sticking and topping up with profits from other shares so it costs me nothing. GLA
My father dies at almost 92 and had covid positive 3 weeks before he died and 2 negative, one being the day before he died when they said he had hours to live. His X-rays from 2017 showed his lungs were failing and has had pneumonia a number of times. BUT they put Covid as primary cause and COPD and frailty as secondary. He was going to die anyway, he even said so himself last year. The numbers are being fudged. I think Government will ease lockdown ahead of a Christmas period, say Mid Nov and reinstate after teh New Year if necessary. All to maintain the economy. But I would Unlock now and care for elderly and vulnerable. Marston depending upon the lock and unlock dates should be well placed to take advantage based upon my local setting.
The bottom line is all vaccines being currently tested will only provide limited protection and will not be part of mass vaccination programmes until mid 2021. Some people will not get vaccinated, this means we will struggle until beyond next summer, I can see the SP hit 25p before hitting 50p.
Welcome Finnacle for some clear water & common sense - that can also be written positively a lesson for many on here.
What I will say is Marstons being the largest brewer in the Uk producing a wide variety of quality premium beers that does not rely on just one source of income like some (i.e. Pubs) it has a tremendous framework of distribution to all of the major supermarkets, recently signed up with Amazon and even now ebay. This will suit either private home drinking as well as those going out in a group of less than 6. They are therefore in a far better position than any other Beer producer. I am helping them with the name for a new Beer which if accepted will also produce some support for the NHS or other chosen charities and could become a house wife favorite. Watch this space. Marstons will not fail it has an income where most other firms do not the equity value alone is worth far more than the current share price. In my mind a safer bet than many other shares! In fact in times of trouble -people actually drink more Beer not less!
hi all , just to clarify i'm not trying to be negative - or as some think to short, i've never shorted anything or ramped/deramped anything either, its just an opinion, which differs to some on here, who are perhaps LTH's that cannot bring themselves to believe whats going on with the SP, or they purchased before covid at 100p+ and are locked in until a recovery maybe next year. i bought at 23.5p and sold at 60p earlier this year, i don't hold currently or do i want to. my comments were simply to say to those that are not invested here and thinking of doing so to hold back and remain patient before jumping in as it has further to drop, thats it - a friendly word of caution, something i could have done with over the years in certain stocks i thought were the next big thing when a lot greener before getting burned on tech and telecom shares in the early 00's... turns out i'm right here so far with a drop to 43.8p today, thanks to the recent bad news regarding a huge spike in covid cases back to may figures, localised lockdowns enforced, pub closures, and the pending announcement from boris tonight. . .this may well be in the late 30's by 4.30pm friday, as i honestly do not think you can downplay the covid facts in front of us all. the government - if you read between the lines - are stating, they are doing 'everything they can' to avoid another national lockdown, they are not saying we are not getting one... they are declaring they are doing what they can but still failing, then if a national lockdown is upon us they can blame the general public for not following guidance. honestly good luck whatever you chose to do, buy, sell or hold, that is your business and each to their own. i just feel its got a way to drop yet and anyone choosing to invest in this very high risk share should approach with extreme caution or have balls of steel! some on here were declaring this as a 'strong buy' at 53p in late august, two weeks later its nearly 10p lower, i hope that not too many took that advice.
Interesting debates below.
Agree big cloud over this sector but I believe the government will try all they can to keep the hospitality sector afloat for as long as they possibly can... i recon they will delaying a full lock down if poss and if they do have a full lockdown they will offer further financial support etc
Some pubs have and will go continue to go under. That's just business especially when there is significant headwinds. I chose this share because IMO i believe "IF" it can weather the storm it should be well placed to capitalize on the opportunities post COVID. That said agree it could drop more in the coming days as we seem to be getting nothing by bad news re COVID.
Bumpy road ahead!
GLA
20 people died WITH covid - having tested positive in the last 28 days. The fact PHE were counting anyone who had ever tested positive who then died as dying of Covid does beg the question why did they want the death figures to look so bad compared with other countries? Because that’s the only effect I can see.
Whilst we have a few Shorters on this board who must be desperate for our share price to fall, you are right in that even yesterday only 20 people died in the whole of the Uk from Covid related disease, whereas in the UK it was said 1 in 3 people will die from cancer in their lifetime. That would be over 20 million people. Perhaps we should forget reporting on Covid at all and report on some more interesting news I am sure I am not the only one bored with all of this TV news reports and the political parties looking for advantage points. I am fortunate in that even though I know plenty of people who enjoy a pint I do not know of anyone close to me or related to me that has actually died of Covid. Perhaps having a few Marstons is the cure - well it does me no harm in my sleepy Village in ?? Norfolk. ha.ha.
Every share is cyclical and this will be too. I see this as a strong buy which is my opinion that I am entitled to. Time will tell if I am wrong -but I am happy to follow my own instincts.