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In fact Business interruption insurance does pay for loss of profits -as well as costs towards getting the business up and running. There is a set calculation used for this based on the performance of the Company. So they may actually be able to claim for more than the man in the street anticipates.
However everyone is free to make their own choices for share ownership but I will say that before when the Carlsberg deal was announced this share bounced almost overnight back up to 70p etc. and last year was well over £1 a share and so if the good news comes many here hoping to come back in will be too late! In my own opinion -obviously.
although the business insurance discussion is something to grasp onto its a drop in the ocean vs. actual revenue lost over the peak spring/summer trading seasons. they cannot cover themselves for lost turnover and profits, only costs and then it would be limited as staffing costs have already been covered via furloughing. i cannot see this leading to much if any increase of the sp, once they have fought it out and that's if they are fully insured against such costs anyhow. my major concern - is this share is far too high risk at present. reason being, is they have no control of their own destiny, its in boris' hands and he can choose to pull the rug at any time he chooses to do so. yes supermarket sales of bottled beers will continue but if and i presume when pubs close again either nationwide or locally due to lockdown this sp will slide back to the low 30's dependent on the time they are closed for. this will and should happen soon. the schools experiment of sending all kids back two weeks ago has spectacularly backfired, with schools now closing on a daily basis due to covid cases, 4 in my local area have closed in the last 48 hours for a minimum of 14 days, and nationwide its 100+ now with similar issues with total or partial closures. how long can this go on for, i'd say not long at all. there is no way schools will be told to close and pubs, bars and restaurants will be allowed to continue to remain open to spread covid to the masses that cannot go without a draught pint. its just logical another lock down will follow, even before we get to winter and discuss second waves or how covid will react with flu. sorry to be so pessimistic but there is a lot of talk on here which could be classed as ramping, so i thought it needed countering. saying this i like the business model, i like the JV and it should recover in time, so if in for the long game and holding for years it makes little difference if it drops 10p over the next few weeks. but if you are not in as yet, i'd say hold fire and see where boris goes with this first and like last time back in march, there will be an option to get in a lot lower than this at mid to low 30's i reckon or even less, it went down to 18p at one stage.
Should keep CAMRA happy for a week! Until the merger is announced -still as Mars have said they want more beers not less
https://www.marstons.co.uk/news/local-legend.aspx
Daave -The release from Marstons expected to come very soon will i am sure be very enlightening. They notified before that for the last two weeks of March for the start of the lockdown they suffered a 40M sales loss. For any business interruption loss one would need to know the period/s involved and the loss amount suffered -so this could well be why they identified so quickly the time x amounts lost - you could be on to something here they have Business Interruption Insurance. Whilst also underlining when the new sales figures come out post lock down what an improvement they will show.
Daave - Yes it is very good news for Marstons and its Pub Landlords. I am a member of the Chartered Insurance Institute and whilst there are different types of Business interruption insurance over 900 Million was reported already to have been paid out to Insureds -yesterday to those who already have disease as a peril stated as covered. So Yes if Marstons and/or any of their or their independent landlords have that cover then they will receive large sums due for loss suffered. If not then no doubt if not further actions could follow against their brokers? Perhaps Insurers will not be the only people to contribute. There is also a large Pool for Calamity sponsored by Insurers and Reinsurers so the ability to claim is not yet over for those who have submitted claims for determination.
Barchid,
An Appeal to a Higher Court is a given. Insurance providers don't give in easy. If nothing else they are happy to spend millions defending if only to kick the can down the road and kill time. How many Tenants/Landlords have that luxury??
Supercharger
In this matter I agree with you, it is by no means cut & dried as to who will receive payment nor when.
The fact that the judgement was 162 pages long means that there is plenty left for insurers to argue about, odds on that it goes to appeal, then I suppose possibly Supreme Court ?
Some people will certainly benefit but when & by how much is the moot point
We hope about the brewing deal.
There’s a whole load of tenants across the sector who are likely to be able to claim, not necessarily marstons themselves, but Marstons would benefit as the tenants would then have the cash to pay bills and rent up to date and mss as me them more secure as individual businesses.
There’s hundreds of pubs on repayment plans for their missed rent, it might not show on any reports but if it was as ll paid off there would be more cash in marstons account!
Most policies were if the policyholders were honest enough placed for loss of business caused by a peril which will have been listed. i.e. either mechanical breakdown and loss of earnings for say a wind turbine, or I suppose in the event of an unknown cause. Those policies that covered any disease will have no doubt paid out so those policies in dispute will be for wordings that are not clear. I would always look at the premiums paid and see if they were rated for a disease such as Covid 19? Even if the Policies in dispute do pay out you can be sure of one thing all premiums for B.I. will increase in the future. If Insureds finally win their cases and all will not be the same then yes those business could benefit up to the individual policy limits purchased - each Company will be different - but yes Marstons could benefit if they have B.I for a very high S.I.
Anyone invested? - look for the high court case that just went through court.. Musings across the internet that business interruption insurance is likely to be paid out for many businesses in the hospitality sector... could this change this SP? Are you invested anywhere else that might be affected?
I’m tied out elsewhere waiting for a raise, wishing I had the balls to move it all back here ASAP tho!
Just made another 4%.when I see negativity I will buy in for my short term fund on the lows -leaving my long term 59,000 odd shares for the longer term.
This share has recently gained support in late afternoon and so I hear our Western friends over the other side of the pond may be looking in here too. We await the overdue next release soon -should be interesting, and you are right it is no good looking at London pubs when most who live outside of the smoke are working from home and will go for a local pint or two. So to compare the Cities with the Country pubs such as Marstons have is a big mistake. I also see lots to be gained here from home drinking and Amazon/ Supermarket sales. Good luck to those willing to buy in to risk as no risk means no profit in this market. No one will keep their money in a bank which pays no interest -although loans are cheap now for businesses to expand (which might explain why so many takeovers are envisaged!!).
Newbie Here.
Brought yesterday @ 47p. Predictably it has fallen back. Set my own target price @75p before calendar Y.E.
Less reliance on inner city's and more town/rural pubs that the competition. Although it will be tough they 'should' fair better than others which long term should put them in a better position.
We will see. I am a newbie after all ;)
GLA
Topped up yesterday <45p and got my average down a little bit more.
Why? This is another brand that I like and want to do well, so why not go bargain hunting whilst the sales are on. Just not sure how much cheaper the price will and can go.
At the end of the day who doesn't like going to the pub with their mates? even better with a Marston's discount card (give me the cash, i'll go to the bar!!) when normality sometime returns and then maybe some dividends on top too? another long term investment for me this one.
Marstons covid testing facility comes up trumps with all staff testing negative at Black Country Brewery -with thanks from UK Govt. to help with expand the testing facility for the Uk.
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/health/coronavirus-covid19/2020/08/29/pilot-testing-programme-hailed-success/
Country Pubs are doing very well. Not surprisingly when most commuters are working from home. Morgan Stanley's efforts to get staff back into London do not appear to be working.
@Jim/FD
Thanks for your confirmations to my observations of apparent current pub footfall, I was really surprised last week to see so few.
Totally agree with FD on do we keep everyone "safe" or do we try to keep them in jobs. To show my age, which puts me in the "at risk" category, when I first started work in the stock market I was just in time to catch the HK flu in 68/69.
The whole firm had it, as did most people, we mostly struggled into work, travelling on overcrowded trains but everything kept open and it soon died out, estimates of deaths in UK by it vary, as we did not have rolling news then, but up to 45,000 seems the median.
We had a population then of 52m, so it was significant, I really have my doubts as to whether lockdown was clever or could we have followed Sweden.
I have no qualifications to make that judgement, but I do wonder.
Can see now why Marstons are responding to the Carlsberg approach as in our local Supermarkets Marstons Beers are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain. It would appear Drinking habits have changed and many "older people like me" are staying at home, although in the Country where we live the Pubs are also doing well. It must be the City where people are not so keen on social drinking and to be honest I do not blame them. House prices are also rising in the Country where people are looking to move out from the City as for many working from Home will continue for some time yet (perhaps with a pint).
Jim can see you have endeavoured to add too your Local's takings and help the near destitute Landlord....good on you.
An Old adage often used even today. " never invest more than one is prepared to lose".
You, and anyone interested, should read Tim Martin's report today, a very sobering statement.
Can add, have family who live on the verge of the Square mile, who called me yesterday. I could not believe what I was hearing.
Pubs (Fullers,Adnams etc) in and around the City were open mid-week last week but closed on Saturday and Sunday, unbelieveable when Saturday was the start of the Premier league. Those open Pubs had a dearth of punters and some restruants were in a similiar state.......open but empty and staff proping up the furniture.
Bloody luxury, my local Marstons is so empty that all the punters left two hours before they arrived. The landlord is so poor he had to furlough all the furniture as well as all the staff. The pub is now a paper bag..........
High hopes this will all unwind and return to profit and a fair share price in the near future. If I had any doubts I would have sold up and invested somewhere else. GLA
Pretty sure the CMA will be looking favourably at the Marston / Carlsberg deal now as this will help one great British Brewer survive stronger post Brexit having a partnership tie up with a European Owned Company.
Fortunately also Marstons have more Pubs outside of the Capital Cities than most, and have found the Supermarkets and Amazon very keen on selling their Beers which is obviously what Carlsberg see as of great interest.
Barchid,
Can add, have family who live on the verge of the Square mile, who called me yesterday. I could not believe what I was hearing.
Pubs (Fullers,Adnams etc) in and around the City were open mid-week last week but closed on Saturday and Sunday, unbelieveable when Saturday was the start of the Premier league. Those open Pubs had a dearth of punters and some restruants were in a similiar state.......open but empty and staff proping up the furniture.
If as rumoured curfew comes in, this will deal a devastating blow to the hospitality industry. One does wonder why inflict such Economic damage...some are even saying lessen controls and allow the Virus to run it's course. A dramatic course but what is worse....Economic Ruin or Health collapse. I know what I prefer!!
The Beer and Pub Association have already stated 37% of opened Pubs ran at a loss during August, a peak month.
There is no doubt something radical is needed to restore commercial viabilty for the whole sector, otherwise there will be mass closures and not just Marstons.
IMO
Report in todays Guardian business saying 1 in 4 of licensed premises in UK still not open coupled with widespread reports of a possible 9pm curfew in Scotland & 10pm in England can hardly help sentiment, despite more people back in offices, e.g. JPM today in Canary Wharf.
I went from Docklands to Chelsea late last week for lunch in Builders Arms, just off Kings Road, normally heaving every lunchtime, we were the only table eating, going there on the tube only 1 in 5 or 6 seats were being used and coming back by taxi very little sign of activity in the pubs we passed. Indeed the 'Spoons, back of the Minories, appeared to have just a few punters in, normally very busy to packed that time of day. This weekend's "last hurrah" was clearly good but going fwd ?
Hopefully things can only improve, question is when ?
I am sure next week the market will come back what with the Oxford trials back up to speed and a vaccine in the offing. I understand it will not be long now for a Marstons release which will be interesting!
Regret I do not comment and got bored with unfair trader whom I assume is now back at school.
as Tweedle dee and Tweedle Dum. One cannot add up or read the other has difficulty understanding plain facts and is still working out which FTSE market Marstons are listed.
How you 2 are allowed to keep posting beggars belief.
Anyhow chaps see you both at the AGM in January when we can exchange pleasantries, if you are still shareholders!!!
Have a good weekend, I will my week has been fabulous.