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longtimeinvestor
I totally agree that Lloyds could pay more than 2p but strongly suspect that they will stick with the formula.
Lloyds finished the half year with a CET1 ratio of 16.7% after allowing for the interim dividend. However the regulatory changes coming in the new year will reduce that by 1.2% to 15.5%. This needs to be reduced by another 0.3% down to 15.2% to take into account the acquisition of Embark. This leaves 170bps for shareholders.
Since the 0.67p dividend will use 37 bps of CET1 a reasonable estimate of what is available for shareholders is 170/37*0.67 which comes to approx. 3.08p per share.
I doubt that the board will want to pay a total ordinary dividend of more than 2p. Past experience has shown that they tend to be conservative with the ordinary dividend.
However it is reasonable to assume that there will be a capital build in the second half of the year unless there is a serious deterioration in conditions. So the board should have scope for specials and/or buybacks.
Company makes £3,800,000,000 profit. Stupid shareholders wipe 500,000,000 off the value of the company .
I am not going to sell any shares but I fully understand why many have.
That video from the chairman saying any excess capital is shareholders money was a complete lie
67Sam
"Hence my outlook for Lloyds is the dividend will remain prudent and the share price muted but we will see this week. Id be pleased to be proved wrong".
Ah well. Dum de dum de dum.
There is no defence for LLOYDS today - there should be a buy back NOW - not at the end of the year but now.
They have smashed it like all other banks and outperformed expectations but they're not sharing the glory with shareholder's - they have annoyed some big shareholder's today and they have sold off a load of shares - the board will know who they have upset as well.
It's like they're waving a flag saying look how well we have done currently but shareholder's have to wait to reap the rewards. They're not being cautious but rather showing poor management by not having a permanent ceo in place at a critical time to make this decision.
This dividend will work out to be a 9500 quid payment for me via spreadbets if i hold my positions for the divi date so its a decent amount.
Barclays had a similar sell off on q1 when they annoyed their largest shareholders but the price recovered very fast after so let's see what happens here
SCB LLOY have had twice within a decade, a " Black Swan " event , either of which without some luck , some substantial government help (remember we are all standing behind LLOY business loans) and prudent (perhaps over prudent ) management could have signalled the demise of the company. Your latest post is one of dozens today from disgruntled but to be blunt, ill-informed shareholders who want a bonanza of dividend returns and want it NOW, even though as we all know, don't we? that the latest crisis is far from over , yeah I doubt the UK is going to suffer many more deaths but LLOY like every other bank, lends to business who operate globally and depend on global recovery from Covid something which is IMV two years away.If you really are awaiting a £9500 divi you must hold a position worth around £1mill , if that is the case you really should understand your investment better.As I have tried to point out several times today they have not "smashed it",they have made a profit of (excluding exceptionals) slightly LESS than the 2020 first half and clearly see risks going forward .
They could easily have managed a buy back similar to barclays of 1.2 billion across the first half of the year...
Read my earlier post - I said the dividend is fine as it matches BARC but sadly the buyback is the killer.
Make all the excuses you want but we all know the capital is there to do a buyback - LLOYDS HAVE EVEN TOLD US THAT!
I say what I see and there is no excuse - with that said they are clearly putting stuff back to allow the new ceo to announce it and look a hero!
Southcoast I have not noticed any big sells today just the usual boring trades majority under 10000 shares I just think some small holders were dissapointed with the dividend as if you are after yield you can do better elsewhere so some selling there also some profit taking by traders also there will have been a lot of stops taken out at 46p
the thing is if say 50k of shareholding and you get around 300 quid even if the divi was 1p it is not a lot of money to worry about selling over a divi , there is more of a chance lloy will tick up slowly past 0.50p and head to 0.60p , they have another asset now , plenty of money in the pot , so quite a secure company .
Dc even institutions drip feed the sells - there wouldn't have been buyers lining up today so it would have been tricky for big sells - I get loads of partial fills when selling lloyds in batches equivalent to 40k notional value via spreadbets tbh
Who knows it could rise tomorrow!! Lol
Looking at the trades there was a 52m share sale that went through at 16:35 @ 46.2p and overall volume of 216m trades which is on the high side for this share.
"Reflecting a boom in the UK property market this year, the banking group said mortgage lending rose by £6.6bn, or 2%, since the end of March, taking the overall size of its home loan portfolio to about £300bn despite intense competition between lenders." (guardian 29/7)
Wonder how it will read this time next year with higher defaults and a reduced figure for new loans.
Lloyds Banking Group got billions in the piggy bank , and getting fat and bloated
The Board are just paying a tick over dividend its a bit of a **** take , lets be honest
Yes I am a Shareholder , that's wants my money ( wages ) that's sitting on the balance sheet , its mine , I am a Lloyds owner. the Lloyds board seem to forget who they are working for ?
Currybelly , forget about that trade that is the end of day UT , , wait and see what happen tomorrow and next week when the results settle in how good LLoy is
Curry,
Do some research before talking ****e please FFS!!!!
SUFCESSEX , i can understand you would have wanted a bigger divi because your lloy pot is fairly large holding , but you will only buy a better caravan ,lol
QUOTE''Looking at the trades there was a 52m share sale that went through at 16:35 @ 46.2p and overall volume of 216m trades which is on the high side for this share.'' UNQUOTE
A few years back Lloyds Banking Group on updates always show daily trades of up to 50,000 trades .... today only 20,000 trades volume is very low.
This is telling me not too many investors have been selling today, so expect a a little blue the next few days IMHO
Sam let's talk in facts - loan payments are currently above average with regards to repayments ie less defaults than expected.
To say anything else is just guessing.
I know everyone like to think they are John Paulson and all that but sadly that was a one off ship that sailed.
Hello mrJimV
quote ''SUFCESSEX , i can understand you would have wanted a bigger divi because your lloy pot is fairly large holding , but you will only buy a better caravan ,lol '' unquote
I have no interest in buying a Caravan these days , happy to hire one for a couple of weeks today ......
Buying a static Caravan is madness these days ... site fees etc and the depreciation over the years is worse than holding Lloyds shares......
hahahahahaha
SUFCESSEX , good idea nice to have a break , you right about site fees some are super expensive , I wouldn`t go that route either .
Well Lloyds onwards and upwards , I to see this going blue certainly next week as the results were very good , GL
The results were exceptional
Was hoping for 1p Divi , but over it now got enough money to live on now :-)
As you say onwards and upwards
Good news is we ( Lloyds ) have got loads in the kitty not many companies can say this today ... we safe a houses loadsa money
Have a good evening Sir
scb
your right not much guessing goes on here...
it was a half hearted comment and If id tried harder I could have said ultimately the wisdom of todays decision might be borne out in the fullness of time as it could help maintain rock solid foundations for paying a decent dividend in years to come. I don't think we really disagree that much I just don't share in the near term optimism/euphoria of those that think its going to rocket any day now.
scb
"I know everyone like to think they are John Paulson and all that but sadly that was a one off ship that sailed".
baffled by that. I work full time and know very little about share trading but Im not that out of place here.
I think the rocket days were upper 20s to mid 30s and upper 30s to 50p - from here it should be smoother - im torn between a 50p end of year and a 55p (I think 55p is still very likely)
We know this could move to 50p in a few good sessions.
The bank is doing really well and just needs to share it out - sharing is caring and all that!
Sam lol most people think they are predicting the next big housing market crash with loan defaults - that ship has sailed though as lenders have changed.