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Let us hope there is no need to prepare to shed tears as a JOG shareholder.
I expect the next RNS will be "talks progressing well, more time needed" and another arbitrary date into the future, say end of Q2. This will allow the next RNS after that to also announce a placing to keep the lights on whilst they complete their deal. At some point I hope shareholders will reach the limits of their tolerance and boot out the board and bungling Benitz but I am not hopeful that they won't be pacified by just one small extension at a time.
And yes, if wrong very willing to apologies, as a shareholder I would actually do so with a smile on my face as it implies a deal will have been done within their own self imposed timeline.
Sounds rather like Marc Antony after the death of Caesar : “ If you have tears, prepare to shed them now…”
I too remain Everhopeful…
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Pierre-Andurand-Oil-Prices-Will-Hit-140-This-Year.html
If you have deep pockets and you are not near death's door then nowt wrong with JOG. Just got to get the politicians to stop nodding along to Schawbs WEF green BS.
MP.
I also have these twits on filter. JOGs a decent enough board except for those two.
Thst said, JOG is a speculative punt for me. Its impossible for me to weigh up the for and against argument and come out with anything more than large caps think in terms of multiples of years, SunakHunt are temporary. Winfall tax, temporary. Lots of capex needed here but 200m+ barrels... someone will/should want it. Happy to have spun the dial at ~180p and see what happens. Anyones guess... Find out within 28 days IMO.
Good luck.
Just my opinion.
CBee.
Me too. But spare a thought, care in the community and all that: https://youtu.be/rRZ-IxZ46ng
awash with green messages JS and Briggs have been Farmed Out
You are a PH Briggs full of it !
Very tightly held stock… PMSL
A bit of sensible advice hold onto your shares and be patient . Jog is a very tightly held stock , any sign of good news this will rocket !
BOOM time
Aside from the usual subsurface, facilities and route to market conundrums associated with these developments the number one tricky issue to solve is the electrification of the facility and most likely any third party facility via which the petroleum reaches point of sale. This is capital intensive, technically challenging and to some extent breaking new ground in the UKCS. I hope they got there in the end and will either utilise a transformed power from shore scheme or it’s connecting to a future offshore wind farm which might delay start-up and will still require back-up generation eg biodiesel. I think they’ve worked this very hard now and considered all the options so commercially it’s viable as the new BEIS will not consent ie give FDP unless it’s an integral part of the development plan. GLA
Just topped up another 2.5k to round off my holding, if norths sea has a future you'd think then so does JOG, only a couple of weeks now until we find out the answer
Is close to 200MMboe of API 33° 2C - plus however many MMboe of prospects going to stay under the NS when so much work has been done that remains to be validated. Does it have no value at all.
Less than 2 weeks from a ground-breaking announcement (one way or the other), the market is apparently telling us that JOG's oil is worth less than 50 cents a barrel.
My money's on it being worth a great deal more. And we'll know soon enough. Please don't let us down again, JAB.
dyor
As Einbert might say: " 'old yer roses", JS. I think the term "stellar investor" is best applied (very sparingly) to people like Warren Buffett, not me. I've had some good wins over the years, but it took me a long time to work out that long term investing is simply about fundamentals and people. I failed for a long time (too busy and didn't really care enough) to place enough emphasis on the quality of the fundamentals and the business model - both of these being a long way behind successfully assessing the capability and integrity of those running the target investment co. Ultimately it's people who count. Put two sets of managers into identical businesses and you'll likely get two entirely different outcomes. Talented people rarely fail.
My introduction to JOG came via my holding in Trapoil (TRAP). The less said about that the better. I got caught, along with many others, as a result of an individual holder (to the tune of 27%) deciding he wanted to run the company - which he was allowed to do (by those on the board he hadn't yet had removed). The unfortunate thing was that he evidently didn't know what he was doing, because TRAP all but went bust. It was only through the actions of one shareholder, who stood up at the May 2015 AGM and gave the directors both barrels over the course of half an hour spent on his feet, that the remaining directors seriously got on with the task of advertising TRAP as a clean. listed vehicle, with £25m (?) of tax losses and one or two interesting licences. Step up the plate, JOG.
I was impressed from the outset by the positive attitude of the NKOTB. I joined in with the placing to raise £800k for working capital (TRAP was a busted flush) and subsequently increased my exposure many times over, as I gained confidence in the abilities of management and their obvious integrity. The fact that their own future financial success was inexorably linked to JOG's gave me added confidence.
Much water has passed under the bridge since those early days, but I have never reduced my holding. I have occasionally top-sliced a few shares, but have always bought back in to previous or higher levels. The resources JOG has at its disposal now, given its declared near term objectives should give all holders confidence. JOG has advanced to where it is despite conditions having gone against it - and the O&G sector in general. In no particular order of importance, they've had to undure and overcome: the initial drill at Verbier (that took a sidetrack well to prove sucessful); the subsequent failure with an appraisal drill (Equinor chose the location); COP 26 in Glasgow; interference from GT, the Swedish fanatic and other protest groups; and most recently the utter electioneering (is there such a word? If not there should be) evident from Sunakhunt in imposing a hugely destructive tax rate of 75% on the industry, when there's no justification for doing so - it's plain theft.
tbc
Good post DU
My money is the day after the floor gets announced.. I am going for next week (Wednesday or Thursday)
DYOR
Lovely post Dick . It’s reassuring for me that we have a stellar investor like you who has educated idiots like me who know very little about oil and gas .
The fantasy world I inhabit doesn't look too shabby from where I'm sitting, JB. How I got to inhabit it would take too long to recount, but somewhere along the line it involved making the right business decisions, which term includes investing for capital gain. Clearly I must have got more decisions right than wrong, as I definitely didn't start off where I have ended up! I am presently hopeful that JOG, SQZ and HBR will add significantly to my fantasies in the medium term. Whilst there is soime short term SP bashing going on, HBR is presently yielding more <8% and SQZ <10%
Many of those who post on this blog are longer term investors who have put a lot of time and effort into understanding JOG's business model and analysing and assessing the applicable characteristics. There are no certainties in the oil & gas sector. Every serious investor knows this. Understanding the risks and weighing them against the potential future gains is key to eventual investment success. As is being able to trust directors, charged by investors with the task of realising ultimate shareholder value, by discharging their duties with skill and integrity.
JOG has some compelling fundamentals you seem intent on ignoring. Name a better opportunity for a profitable NS producer to avoid payment of tax at 75% and secure a modest contribution towards the development cost of GBA licences on 190mmboe of 2C resources that are more certain than the average 2C (by virtue of the 50MMboe certified to remain in Buchan when the rig failed in Aug 2017.
Tell us - using something other than just "gut feel" - why JOG represents such poor value and we can start a proper debate. My gut feel is you can't.
My take is there'll be a few people kicking themselves this week or next. Time will tell.
dyor
Definitely no negativity from this point on . We are all here for Jog’s success and like most holders I am patiently waiting .
OK, so hopefully we will from now only now see your intelligent side (no returning to deramping as if you try it we can link back to your admission post!) and maybe you can give us some genuine extra insights into JOG.
Briggs why don’t you do us all a favour and crawl back into the sewer where you belong .
I don't live in the fantasy world that people like you and JS inhabit, Dick. Give me one example of a stock I've commented negatively on where I have been proven wrong.
Good luck.
...........you come across as a sad individual, JB. Have you really got nothing better to do than trash other people's investments (not just JOG) on a blog site like LSE? And it's been going on for a long time.
Sad.....yes, that's the word.
I do hold 968423 shares and that is the truth . I’m not going over the 3% threshold. I am still optimistic and upbeat about Jog . Patience is key here and always invest responsibly !
Greener, thanks for that link, shame none of us spotted it earlier, it came out last Wednesday. It definitely implies some sort of improvement in the investment setting for companies. The relevant bit is ""In addition to the measures in the spring budget, the government will set out further action later this month to ensure energy security in the UK and meet our net zero commitments," the government said in a budget document."
Combining that with the reports before the budget that the government seemed sympathetic to some sort of price floor for the EPL but were not going to announce it at the budget but rather at a later "fiscal event", it looks like hopefully there will be some good news, and obviously it makes sense for those in the bidding to wait for the details, so no doubt some more delay. Actually with the oil price at around $70 there isn't really any grounds at all now for a "windfall tax" - I'm surprised the share price isn't reflecting these developments. I assume it's just retail holders losing patience and not noticing these important bits of news.
JS nice to see that I have got you to come clean. I'll admit to all that I am clearly very naive because it took me ages until I realised what you were up to. I mean I didn't sell because of your negativity but I think I am too straight myself to have quickly realised your scheme. I just thought you were strange and unbalanced in your changing positions. And that's even though I know all about rampers and derampers, but you just seemed unbalanced more than anything. Until finally I woke up. But now we are here I do wonder how many shares you really hold. The most interesting question is how much do share prices really get influenced by rampers and derampers - does anyone know of any research on this?