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Added £5k at 170-171. Watch this bounce
Does anyone know when the gov is going announce this energy security stuff? I had understood there was going to be an announcement in Aberdeen?
So many red flags here. None of the statements about investment in NS are new yet Benitz made his now ridiculous “certainly by Q1” promise. Credibility shot to pieces but the enablers will let him off to keep the dream alive. Trouble is they don’t have an endless supply of cash .
This is taken from Ithaca's results from earlier today, seems clear to me from this changes are needed to the levy, hopefully to be announced later today, in order for a FO to be secured "We remain committed to investing in the UK North Sea, however the impact of the revised Energy Profit Levy ("EPL") announced in November 2022, in particular the removal of the sunset clause, is constraining our ability, and that of our JV partners, to invest. With a reduction in borrowing capacity across the sector as a direct result of EPL, the ability of the oil and gas industry to unlock the benefits of investment programmes across the UKCS to provide critical domestic energy security and meet its Net Zero ambitions is under threat. We continue to constructively engage with the UK government in relation to the future fiscal policy in pursuit of the stability required to make these critical investment decisions."
Look up the press release issued yesterday by the NST Authority. I would think this provides a clue or two as to the way forward re jog,though possibly delaying matters into 2nd Quarter ?
Does anyone know when this stuff is published or announced?
Looks like we are down to the wire...!
I think the key words come right at the end of this Hunt article when he talks about scaling up cheap renewables & new nuclear "while maximising economically viable North Sea oil and gas as we transition. Today we deliver that."
Surely JOG has a role to play in that - hopefully we'll know tomorrow or Friday.
“We will pull every lever.. maximising economically viable North Sea oil and gas as we transition” - talk of not relying on Putin - it’s on. The govt has switched back to supportive. Details tbc but the farmout 100% gets done - esp as GBA will be the first North Sea net zero project. Adding tomorrow am
Hunt article gone live in the Times ahead of tomorrow in the last 30 mins, might give some clues ahead of tomorrow but behind a paywall https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-were-powering-up-britains-green-industrial-revolution-8xg6s6rlb
These are complex negotiations with many factors that come into play . If big ears announces the new EPL on Fri then the board will need more time to finalise the details. Don’t be disappointed if there is no news this week . I’ve purchased my large holding and just waiting for the news . I’m Happy as Larry and cool as a cucumber
Don't you mean: deal will be announced if not by the end of the month but maybe next quarter ?
No Farmout deal to be announced but 'progressing well' and 'final stages' - reference to fiscal changes... will be all good. slight delay is understandable given the changing tax rules...
........we're all rooting for you, MPO :-)
You'll probably be under pressure to sell as soon as there's a significant uptick in the SP. This might not be the smart thing to do. My view is that the right time for JOG to sell might be on FDP approval in perhaps 12 months time. When a FO is announced (hopefully imminently) the market will determine the price. As I understand the situation, on FDP approval the 2C resources will become 2P reserves - and the industry will value these should JOG decide it's time to sell. I am far from certain the above is wholly correct, because I've recently heard the word "validation" used in the context of value of JOG's oil - and I'm not certain of the timing of the changes in description of the oil.
One definition I've read states: "Contingent Resources—Those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be
commercially recoverable"
"Reserves—Those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from
known accumulations from a given date forward".
Can anyone throw further light on the subject? The difference in value between 2C and 2P appears to be very significant.
dyor
Sounds like Mrs MPO will break your Crystal balls if you have got this wrong, who knew that Mercury was in Uranus. Too funny! GLA - Good news soon.
If it came fae Dick it's BullShyte
And prey tell of this experience. Does it involve a bull?
I certainly will not be kicking myself tomorrow or any other day if this deal/FO does not happen - Mrs MPO will take care of the violence, she has promised it since I failed to sell at 350p+. Dick, only your £5+ can save me.
.............or Friday at the latest. JOG would surely have 'fessed up by now if no deal was impending.............
jmofwiw
dyor
see you on the other side (of £5?)
..........."JOG's farm out is about providing the means for profitable UKCS producers to avoid the payment of 75% tax on profits (40% 'normal' and 35% EPL)"
Plus of course there's the cash contribution of close to 15% on qualifying development spend (available to the company doing the spending.
You're definitely right about the stars lining up, Varnish (planets actually, but who's counting?):
https://www.nationalworld.com/news/science/5-planet-alignment-planets-aligned-sky-tonight-4081743
One small health warning.................. if you're watching without protective gear: Mercury in Uranus can be very uncomfortable.
I'm with you on tomorrow, Varnish. Energy Security proceedings in Aberdeen tomorrow are expected mostly to be about the establishment of a floor price for oil, below which the 35% EPL would not apply. I seem to recall reading something about carbon capture also being on the agenda, which sounds like the sort of subject that will result in a huge volume of hot air from people who haven't got a clue (causing more blobal warming than they'll stop).
JOG's farm out is about providing the means for profitable UKCS producers to avoid the payment of 75% (40% 'normal' and 35% EPL). I don't think anyone envisages Sunakhunt reducing the "super-investment allowance", as the seminar is about energy security, which I take to mean security of supply, or in other words: encouragement of oil & gas cos to invest in the UKCS. Any reduction in the present allowances would clearly have the opposite effect.
Not long now to wait for JohnnyB's apology for putting people off investing in a company he hasn't got the balls to invest in himself
dyor
Millario - I had though of this myself. But any insider buying could easily be absorbed by retail sellers?
Also, all of the insiders are existing shareholders, on dealing lockdown, and already stand to gain hugely anyway. Why take more risk be getting your best mate to buy another 100k?
The deal will be done with limited people in the room.
From experience I doubt we will hear anything until next week at the earliest . Hunts new floor limit and varnishing the finer details will lead to a slight delay . I’m on the bus and sitting near the front . GLA
Most days there is more chat posted here than share trades, It is down to the wire for which there could be valid reason. GLA
Call Me sceptical, but If you are talking about a possible re-rate anywhere between 5 & 20 times the current share price then that's way too much potential money to be made for no one to know anything at all (imo anyway).
Hope I'm wrong though.