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Not sure announcing a reduction in EFL at the same time would have been sensible from a political view point. It will happen sooner rather than later, operators have spoken with reduction E&P operations e.g Ithica and Harbour
Saturday will be interesting on this board - either there will be a lot to discuss in terms of the farm out info, or the usual suspects will be predicting the following week for news, desperate to keep their dream alive and ignore the usual aim reality. I am betting that nothing of any substance is announced and am keeping the cash ready from the sale of 3/4 of my holding to buy back much lower on Friday afternoon/Monday morning when the share price crashes. Has to have good long term prospects, but bungling Benitz and his team of merry men need to get the sack first, and put the co into hibernation whilst a formal sale process is conducted.
We can but live in hope that our leaders are being politically astute and choosing not to announce the "refining" of the EFL until the Easter w/e when such will be lost in other bank-holiday news. Do we credit them with such careful foresight ...... or are they just ignoring the fallacy of the punitive EPL that they introduced.
GLA JOG'ers
Looks like Ed Miliband is the bandit in the room . I thought big ears and slippery hunt would’ve handled the stuttering Miliband. Looks like they’ve headed to Nandos instead and chickened out
...all this a distraction, as I used to think before EPL floor potential announcement drew near without a deal.
UK will be a high tax environment for the life of GBA's producing period, with a Lab gov in power all but certain.
Best option is for people to just grab the allowance now, and get going.
We can only hope the delay is nothing to do with EPL floor, and just a 'down to the wire' negotiation to a deadline, bracketed on one side by AB's guidance, and FY year end on the other.
Heads of terms agreement this afternoon RNS or tomorrow am.
Good luck all
https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/uk-government-airbrushes-out-north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry
"But one industry insider suggests news relating to oil and gas has been deliberately pushed back to a later date.
There is thought to have been fears their inclusion would give Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero Ed Miliband a stick to beat ministers with.
It is believed that the oil and gas measures are still happening, with an announcement possible next week."
Supporting this view is that in the govt publication there are references to the ongoing importance of oil and gas in the interim, and yet I cannot find any reference at all to the windfall tax and investment allowance. I mean, if the govt had decided to leave everything as is they surely would have at least trumpeted how their present policy with the investment allowance is so good as it encourages investment. The total absence of any mention gives strong weight to the argument that another announcement is due re oil and gas.
Eva NL on Net Zero
https://youtu.be/WcIQ_A27LqM?t=2892
Bargain entry point for those who haven’t invested .
We continue to constructively engage with the UK government in relation to the future fiscal policy in pursuit of the stability required to make these critical investment decisions."
-------------------------
Meanwhile Just Stop Oil have the Gov's ear and Solicitors are refusing to prosecute climate protestors, something has to give PDQ. Grant Schapps the m---n who did smart motorways is in charge of carbon capture ! C02 is vital for Humans we need more of it .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjlmFr4FMvI
Well, to kickstart discussion... does lack of clarity on EPL preclude an announcement in the the next few days?
Unless someone announces something in Aberdeen (It doesn't seem like this is happening?), no clarity on EPL.
"Supporting long-term investment
The Government recognises that fiscal policy plays an important role in securing long-term
investment in the UK Continental Shelf and supporting the sector to maximise domestic
production of gas. The Government has announced a review into the UK’s long-term fiscal
regime for oil and gas, to ensure that it delivers predictability and certainty, supporting
investment, jobs and the country’s energy security."
Page 16 from the link you sent Carcosa 61. So nothing soon.
I note big money is exchanging hands for undeveloped oil in NS (rosebank), but pressure is still being applied by players on fiscal security.
Conclusion - why can't JOG get players signed up for GBA, which some rhetoric along the lines of: "F/O of fantastic opportunity, but post FID contingent on improved fiscal regime' etc. Get heads of terms in place, maybe even start some initial work.
Hoping Friday gives some clarity
#Carcosa thanks. Skimmed through this and doesnt make good reading re EPL - no mention!
Added £5k at 170-171. Watch this bounce
Does anyone know when the gov is going announce this energy security stuff? I had understood there was going to be an announcement in Aberdeen?
So many red flags here. None of the statements about investment in NS are new yet Benitz made his now ridiculous “certainly by Q1” promise. Credibility shot to pieces but the enablers will let him off to keep the dream alive. Trouble is they don’t have an endless supply of cash .
This is taken from Ithaca's results from earlier today, seems clear to me from this changes are needed to the levy, hopefully to be announced later today, in order for a FO to be secured "We remain committed to investing in the UK North Sea, however the impact of the revised Energy Profit Levy ("EPL") announced in November 2022, in particular the removal of the sunset clause, is constraining our ability, and that of our JV partners, to invest. With a reduction in borrowing capacity across the sector as a direct result of EPL, the ability of the oil and gas industry to unlock the benefits of investment programmes across the UKCS to provide critical domestic energy security and meet its Net Zero ambitions is under threat. We continue to constructively engage with the UK government in relation to the future fiscal policy in pursuit of the stability required to make these critical investment decisions."
Look up the press release issued yesterday by the NST Authority. I would think this provides a clue or two as to the way forward re jog,though possibly delaying matters into 2nd Quarter ?
Does anyone know when this stuff is published or announced?
Looks like we are down to the wire...!
I think the key words come right at the end of this Hunt article when he talks about scaling up cheap renewables & new nuclear "while maximising economically viable North Sea oil and gas as we transition. Today we deliver that."
Surely JOG has a role to play in that - hopefully we'll know tomorrow or Friday.
“We will pull every lever.. maximising economically viable North Sea oil and gas as we transition” - talk of not relying on Putin - it’s on. The govt has switched back to supportive. Details tbc but the farmout 100% gets done - esp as GBA will be the first North Sea net zero project. Adding tomorrow am
Hunt article gone live in the Times ahead of tomorrow in the last 30 mins, might give some clues ahead of tomorrow but behind a paywall https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/jeremy-hunt-were-powering-up-britains-green-industrial-revolution-8xg6s6rlb
These are complex negotiations with many factors that come into play . If big ears announces the new EPL on Fri then the board will need more time to finalise the details. Don’t be disappointed if there is no news this week . I’ve purchased my large holding and just waiting for the news . I’m Happy as Larry and cool as a cucumber
Don't you mean: deal will be announced if not by the end of the month but maybe next quarter ?
No Farmout deal to be announced but 'progressing well' and 'final stages' - reference to fiscal changes... will be all good. slight delay is understandable given the changing tax rules...
........we're all rooting for you, MPO :-)
You'll probably be under pressure to sell as soon as there's a significant uptick in the SP. This might not be the smart thing to do. My view is that the right time for JOG to sell might be on FDP approval in perhaps 12 months time. When a FO is announced (hopefully imminently) the market will determine the price. As I understand the situation, on FDP approval the 2C resources will become 2P reserves - and the industry will value these should JOG decide it's time to sell. I am far from certain the above is wholly correct, because I've recently heard the word "validation" used in the context of value of JOG's oil - and I'm not certain of the timing of the changes in description of the oil.
One definition I've read states: "Contingent Resources—Those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be
commercially recoverable"
"Reserves—Those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from
known accumulations from a given date forward".
Can anyone throw further light on the subject? The difference in value between 2C and 2P appears to be very significant.
dyor