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Started: dickupham, 20 Jun 2024 13:10
Last post: CUPHALFULL, Today 08:58
Thank you for all that work Dick.
Slight amendment re wording on inv allowance: I wrote:
"1. The availability of the 84p cash (per £1 spent) in additional investment relief on qualifying Capex"............this should have read: "total investment relief on qualifying Capex...etc"
OK. I have only taken the DCF projections forward for the first 7 years of production (from 1 Jan 2028 to end of 2034 - see below twds the end). The effect on NPV of projected net cash contributions each year diminishes each year when the discount (or discounts) is applied. As an example, the NPV (ie the value today) of £1 of project cash inflow in 7 years' time amounts to 34p - and it is less again in year 8 and so on. I decided to stop after 7 years (i) because I get bored crunching numbers and my back hurts even more than it usually does when I'm hunched over my laptop typing with two index fingers and my right thumb (used to hit the space bar immediately below the keyboard). (ii) I am by no means confident that 10% is the right discount to apply (to recognise risk - it's just the rate the industry uses - probably fair enough because the risk is cumulative; income expected 7 years in the future has an effective risk applied of 66% of it not arriving); (iii) I have not included the usual discount to reflect the cost of money (some call it inflation, others call it interest, but monetary cost is what it is supposed to represent; typically, the rate would be between 2% and 5%). Generally it's too notional to get excited about.
There's no perfect way to value any asset held for commercial purposes (projects, shares etc), but NPV using DCF projections is as good as any afaic - as long as the underlying assumptions have merit. To ASSUME is to make an A.SS out of U and ME - a wise man once said.
Taking the approach I've outlined, the Buchan Project (in total - ie JOG's, NEO's and SQZ's combined interests) has a NPV10 of in excess of US$735m under the tax regime Zeus (and others supposedly in the know) believes will apply when Labour take office. Their views are in part corroborated by the fact that only £1.2bn pa for the 5 years of the next Parliament is forecast by Labour in its manifesto to be collected from companies paying the EPL.
jfi (I have no idea if what I have assumed about timing of Capex spend will be anywhere near accurate) I have converted £900m of infrastructure cost to US$ @ $1.25/£1 ($1.125 bn) and estimated it will be spent in: 2025 - $100m; 2026: $300m; 2027: $725m. The timing and yearly spend numbers might not be accurate but in total they shouldn't be far off. Bear in mind that NEO and SQZ (according to Zeus) would be able to claim 84/100 x qualifying Capex to immediately offset against profits from other UKCS fields they have interests in (which would be suffering tax at 78%).
JOG's 20% of NPV10 will be greater than 20% (in value) because it won't have any Capex (less the relief) and it will have the milestone payments included in total costs.
nuff said - dyor
I have now prepared the DCF projections to get to a NPV10 for Buchan under what Zeus believes Labour will impose.
I stress again that establishing a NPV10 number depends on the assumptions made in the DCF projections. Most assumptions are about the future.
The main assumptions I have made are that:
1. Zeus's interpretation of Labour policy in regard to EPL when they take office are substantially correct
2. Brent Crude $75pb throughout
3. Buchan average output 35kboepd from first oil (1 Jan 2028) to end of 2034
4. Output of 35kboepd achieved for an average of 330 days per year
5 Extraction and G&A costs $25pb to end of 2034
6 Tax rate applied to UK O&G cos to "normalise" (ie 30% RFCT + 10% supplementary charge = 40%) from 1 Jan 2030
7 Greta Thunpiglet doesn't manage to convince reps of the people in countries like US, China and the EU to immediately stop needing fossil fuels and understand how much better their lives will be when they decide (or are forced by G7 leaders who idolise her) to stop oil &gas production immediately and rely on other, greener, forms of energy. Has she thought about urine? If this could be turned into energy she would legitimately be able to claim her proposals were "pi55 and wind". Hear, hear I say.
There are two big assumptions that could materially affect FID outcome:
1 The availability of the 84p cash (per £1 spent) in additional investment relief on qualifying Capex and
2 Reversion of tax rates to the levels they were at before Sushi and the rhyming Hunt cluelessly set about their work to raise some quick (and substantial) tax from an unpopular industry which didn't deserve to pay it. People should thank their lucky stars the UK upstream O&G industry didn't pull up the rug to teach Sushi a lesson - bring the country to its knees by dropping output to the lowest levels consistent with avoiding damage to wells, infrastructure, production equipment, etc.
OPEC sets oil prices (Nymex and ICE) not resulting from macro events that restrict or bloat supply - not the UKCS O&G industry. Russia didn't export a barrel of oil less as a result of the sanctions post Ukraine - it simply sold more oil to China and India. The latter refined it and then sold it to the same countries Russia had supplied before the sanctions were imposed. But the Chinese and Indians DID demand lower prices - China on oil for its own use and India to make a turn on its dirty new supply activities. BC rose on perceived fears about future supply, not because of any actual shortages.
The ones who made the money when oil and gas prices rose were the retail suppliers, like Centrica (profits up 3x in 2022/23 on the back of price hikes, esp gas after adding however much for posterity). The sheeple paid the bills and Sushi raped the upstream industry to become "a man of the people" by refunding the sheeple's money and more on top.
I'll tell you in another post what Buchan might be worth to Neo & SQZ.............based on assumpt
There is an implied 30bn fiscal black hole in public service spending cuts that Labour will not want to do.
Delayed projects in NS total 4bn in tax receipts. Accelerated decom costs too.
Lab need this money. JOG is priced at not proceeding! Bonkers.
I agree it's painful for another delay but how will we feel post election, when tax is clarified, and in the Autumn JOB announces a rig contract, and all speed ahead to FID and a giant cash payment? Yes FO longer away, but also maybe further from EPL?
Started: MunnieTorx, 20 Jun 2024 21:32
Last post: MunnieTorx, 20 Jun 2024 21:32
As if things couldnt get worse for JOG with Labour likely to pull the plug on North Sea oil projects, now the Supreme Court has taken the biscuit with its damming decision on emmisons impact of oil projects.
I worry that JOG might not even stop at IPO levels once this Labour govt get voted in and todays court ruling percolates down through the industry.
Spudimminent is not wrong when he says 75% of nothing is nothing. Another sad day for british energy. It makes JOG a stronger sell currently.
May turn around but so far I fear I was correct, downward trajectory with some recovery days.
R.I.P. north sea oil projects 😔
Started: dickupham, 17 Jun 2024 22:14
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 20 Jun 2024 10:07
Good morning Dick - thank you for your comments on DCFs.
I'm sure everyone on this board hopes you are around for the harvest.
One thing we all will be around to enjoy is the demise of the fragrant Minister - Ms V.Atkins - Sky poll predicts she will lose her seat.
I'm sure with her background some conveyancing clerk's vacancy exists which will match her talents.
Sorry - I meant Senior conveyancing clerk.
CHF - firstly, I ran my original model from 2027 onwards - income would now flow (under latest revised timings) from about a year later. I assumed that FYAs would still be 100%, but relief would only be claimed at a maximum rate of 40%. I made the assumption there would be no specific capex relief because this was the clear impression Miliband gave whenever he opened his unpleasant mouth. I also made the assumption that the EPL would NOT be withdrawn in 2029, because politicians are lying ar5eholes and when the time comes to revert to "normal" tax rates (ie twice those charged on any other corporate entities' profits in the UK) Greta Thunpiglet will be even prettier and more influential, when freely dispensing her knowledge and wisdom to the then current leaders of the G7 countries.
If one assumes Zeus is right about the 84P investment relief, the effect of the relief JOG's JV partners could claim against taxable profits (from existing fields) at an EPL rate of 78% would be very significant.
Sunak, Hunt and Victoria Atkins - the lawyer who served as Financial Secretary to the Treasury from October 2022 to November 2023 and made the official statement that everything the former two clowns were proposing was "fair" (who to??) - just kept adding to everyone's existing confusion. Unsurprisingly, investors abandoned the sector in their droves. The one thing the market hates above all is uncertainty and this imo is what floored prices in the oil sector. Ref Gobby Atkins (who's now hopped over to Health & Social Care), doesn't she just love herself to bits? I've yet to meet a solicitor who understands the first thing about accounting and very few whose expertise stretches into business management, let alone making decisions about a nation's finances. Fewer still who understand much about oil & gas - and the economics and risks attaching to what is a unique industry, where investment straddles decades and stable economics and fiscal policy are pre-requisites for successful investment. None of the political clowns in office - pygmies in any business sense - even appears to have considered the Laffer Curve, where incentivisation meets fiscal policy and reality is the result. Politicians are only ever interested in what is best for them. Never a truer word was written than by Donkey Oatey recently, when he offered the UKCS as an unmissable opportunity for returns-free risk.
I'll re-run the DCF numbers and let you know. It might not be today, but I do know - because I now fully understand how Zeus gets to the 84p additional investment relief (the 84p is a real cash number) - that the NPV10 result will be significantly different.
Any DCF/NPV valuation is only ever the product of the underlying assumptions made about the future. The only story in town about JOG is more patience I'm afraid. I doubt all of us will still be around to see the end result
dyor
Hi Dick,
Your last DCF for this board produced a negative outcome - what will be the difference with your assumptions from that occasion and the next DCF you are intending ?
DU - " Something has gone very badly wrong with our country........"
The government dispensed with the concept of doing what is best for the country.
I'll try to run some DCF numbers to get to a NPV of the project, using the 84% tax relief Zeus has said they believe Labour will introduce when they get in (or shortly thereafter). I'm confused by the arithmetic used in getting to 91.4p tax relief that presently applies to investment (called re-investment relief). Because of the lack of clarity in the wording used in the .Gov.UK official issuances, I can't work out if the 91.4p is the cash effect of the relief given, or is a "gross" relief that leads to a cash saving of 75% x 91.4p. It is (more than) unusual to refer to the availability of tax relief using a monetary value rather than a percentage.
Some people who work in the public sector (including virtually the entire population of civil servants) are clueless c.retins. Just a personal view - apologies to any who aren't if they're reading this.
The trouble with DCF modeling etc is that it hurts what's left of my brain. As my brain is the only bit of me that doesn't usually hurt (except when thinking about my oil & gas shares) the thought of voluntarily inflicting pain in that area holds little appeal.
I do think, however, that the negativity around the likely new measures might be a bit overdone. I am optimistic (but not confident) about a decent outcome, albeit delayed somewhat.
I wish the Police would adopt the same approach to Sunakhunt, Stoma, Amazonian Angie and Rover (woof woof) Reeves as they did to the runaway cow............
dyor
I see Stoma wants 16 year olds to get the vote (as they're paying tax - quoi??). I think it should be given to 4 year olds - they do, after all, qualify for sex lessons under our political masters' guidance. Something has gone very badly wrong with our country........
Started: MPO818, 17 Jun 2024 07:05
Last post: dickupham, 20 Jun 2024 08:43
I think Zeus need things explaining to them, spudimminent - and you're clearly the person to do it. Many thanks, on behalf of all LTHs here, for your incisive analysis of JOG's situation.
When can we next expect to benefit so richly from your wisdom?
Goodmorningmp
We don't need the FT to tell us we're fooked but do you really believe that Labour will carry this through? 78% of nothing is nothing!
Started: MPO818, 18 Jun 2024 16:58
Last post: MPO818, 18 Jun 2024 16:58
Shell, for its part, plans to grow its LNG business by 20-30% by 2030, compared with 2022. The world’s top LNG trader expects global LNG demand to surge by 50% by 2040, driven by higher demand from Asia, with coal-to-gas switching in China and a boost in LNG consumption to fuel economic growth in South and Southeast Asia.
As the UK government (whoever that may be) destroys business and investment in the NS - Prices for oil and gas will rise - Tax revenue will decline and the UK will import more expensive and dirtier fossil fuels - only a matter of time before Shell relocate and others will follow.
10th August, 2022, 10:30 pm ....
Here's what to think...
They don't want to unambiguously and clearly state what they are going to do because a significant number of the electorate (especially those who have never lived under a Labour govt) would not vote for them if they knew what will actually happen. RR has tried to calm the markets ahead of the game by saying nothing much will happen until an autumn budget. In office they will have a chance to get a feel for what they can get away with without doing a Truss and triggering market/currency meltdown.
But still don’t know what to think :)
Ok. Thanks
Onthe6 - Your link is nearly two years old and is covered in the Labour Manifesto and the Zeus Capital note which Surety included as an extract earlier.
Started: DiveCentre, 17 Jun 2024 07:22
Last post: Gtx1, 17 Jun 2024 08:34
The ultimate risk here might be with the major oil companies committing to expenditure in these oil fields even with current licences, it might pay them to move abroad lock stock and barrel if Labour don't make it worth there wile with tax allowances with there expenditure outlays. risky situation.
GLA
Zeus Capital has published a new research note onJOG suggesting Labours manifesto pledges should not prevent Buchan going ahead.
Started: dickupham, 14 Jun 2024 21:47
Last post: onthe6, 16 Jun 2024 14:21
‘I’m smart as dick and all of you :)’
‘Not as smart’ I meant. I’m so dumb I couldn’t even express my dumbness :)))
Personally I think our project will be on hold.
I didn’t say any of that :) it’s from the article I link. I’m smart as dick and all of you :)
OT6, I don't really understand why you think any O&G company would ever trust the UK government again after the recent confiscatory tax regime changes? How would this provide stability, when the UKG have, for the second time now, shown that they are willing to rape NS oil companies whenever they need to buy votes (my bad, I really meant to write whenever they need to fund their 'progressive' and compassion-based social welfare systems.) Fool me once.... but thrice, if coming back after this latest kick in the b4lls?
Also, when you say, "This could include permanently higher tax rates that would lead to higher tax revenues when oil prices are high without the need for windfall taxes" it is worth pointing out that an unmodified 40% tax rate would also have provided higher GBP tax revenues when oil prices rise without the need for any additional taxes of any kind! Apparently though that approach wasn't considered sufficient to satisfy the greed and desperation for votes by our political lords and masters.
So - the UK will continue to consume the same amount of oil and gas next year as it did last year, but in future years the hope is to be do it in a more environmentally-friendly way: by purchasing it from less carbon efficient jurisdictions, and then shipping it to the UK (in a carbon-zero form of transportation? I'd love to hear what form of transportation that might be!) And then when the price of oil and gas rockets, they will want to keep the barbarians from the gate by issuing energy payments funded by what - tax on the NS oil and gas we no longer extract? (Or perhaps they will tax the real windfall gains after all - those of the utility companies who made an absolute killing since Ukraine!)
Pass me a knife, I've an appointment to take out the UK's only remaining golden goose...
It actually wouldn’t surprise me if they’d eventually do this.
Started: buchanan101, 14 Jun 2024 13:47
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 14 Jun 2024 19:40
Surety, I agree. - all to play for.
re " … try not to get caught in the sentiment of the pre budget noise " - you give wise advice
Good reminder post CHF.
We won’t know anything until the AW budget … try not to get caught in the sentiment of the pre budget noise
A responsible transition means it won’t be a rash choice on day 1. They need the revenue for the exchequer. Jog already have the licences and a low carbon plan..
There is all to play for IMHO
DYOR
From WH Ireland on 6/6/2024
"In effect, we anticipate the UK Government will provide fiscal clarity such that the operator of the Buchan redevelopment will have sufficient confidence in the fiscal regime to progress with project sanction. We remind investors of our view that the Buchan field is overwhelmingly the best undeveloped oilfield of its kind in the UK North Sea in terms of it being of considerable scale and low-risk. "
I think much more risky than 50/50 now .i can see this going to 40-50p and then very risky from there. GLA :>)
...will be tempted to buy, but I've done that before, usually on IC tip...
Must be at oversold stage, surely... yes there's a risk of downside I guess all the way down to zero, but the potential upside multiple multiplied by chance of that upside is very significant... Could be a 5-1 gamble with 50/50 chance of it coming off? I think I'm in now, hoping for that...
Started: KCE32, 14 Jun 2024 17:05
Last post: KCE32, 14 Jun 2024 17:05
Regardless of the election result the oil is going no where and it will come to the surface when JOG is ready to pump it out in 2027, so fill your boots now before the SP takes off.
Started: MunnieTorx, 14 Jun 2024 11:41
Last post: buchanan101, 14 Jun 2024 13:42
How often is this updated, or is there a threshold?
Open Short Positions in Jersey Oil & Gas plc
There are currently no open short positions in Jersey Oil & Gas plc.
I’m not sure you are sorry for LTH’s & in any case your sympathy is irrelevant, like pretty much all of your posts.
Clear now that JOG has been spotted as a good short position. *sigh
Agree 50p is possible pre-election results.
What a mess. Sorry for any longterm strong hands here. Looked very good for a while, especially at 350p.
Feel this may be headed to the elephant graveyard in 2H.
My opinion only.
Started: Surety, 13 Jun 2024 17:32
Last post: karmakanix., 14 Jun 2024 11:32
Hopefully DYOR and didn't listen to SC at evil diaries. He just cares about making money mainly from shortin.
JOG has been my all-time favourite share but wouldn't want to be holding now. I can the 50s incoming even before election day and then after that very high risk.
Started: JerseyCrew, 14 Jun 2024 11:18
Last post: JerseyCrew, 14 Jun 2024 11:18
Lots of manifesto postering - mmmmmm - like we have never seen a party do a U-Turn before when they come to power and deal with the realities of life such as energy security.
Started: Surety, 14 Jun 2024 08:56
Last post: onthe6, 14 Jun 2024 11:07
Don’t think our ceo knows neo’s intention. Like alsoppc said they don’t need to let us know until the very last minute. They probably don’t know themselves.
Try to relax over the weekend. Away from this mess. I’m switching off for now. Love to all.
Unite can object to the moon but I read from somewhere these days labour has a lot more funding sources, less dependent on the unions.
It is what it is and I doubt labour will change course. Don’t want to think of the share price over the next few months. All joggers please take look after yourselves. Take care.
To sum it up Ed doesn’t want any UK oil production.
Can't we use the 'extra money through 3% EPL and loophole closing' in the manifesto to infer the probable removal of allowances?
Just read the article. Nothing new. The usual.
Started: Greener101, 14 Jun 2024 09:19
Last post: Greener101, 14 Jun 2024 09:19
Https://12ft.io/proxy
drag article into that
Started: Surety, 13 Jun 2024 22:28
Last post: Surety, 13 Jun 2024 22:28
Sit tight. The manifesto leaves a lot open for interpretation.. running on populist rhetoric to get elected is one thing .. governing on it is quite another … the real action will in the next budget..
IMHO
Started: Quangoman, 13 Jun 2024 12:57
Last post: onthe6, 13 Jun 2024 20:05
Personally I cannot believe they will leave the 91p in the £ untouched. They will reduce it. To what level no one knows. As for the maths, I’ll leave it to Dick and his calculator brain.
Greener I think whatever’s been spent is small change for neo. No one knows. But it doesn’t look good for us. Very sad for us all. Good night.
Agree Limmo1
If the project has no hope, why is Neo still proceeding with all the site work? Orcadian got a great deal with its partner for a 1.4m loan - people are still poised to work in NS for the right projects. WI can sit in a bay somewhere until post election, and the few months it might take to get clarity on tax allowances (until the Autumn Statement?).
Lab will have a choice - do you want 10bn+ in tax receipts from all these stalled projects or not? Do you want to deal with the job losses? Or deal with the election damage by softening on capital allowances?
They will have it both ways. Don't rock the boat pre-election, then do something the industry can stomach post election.
No worries, not lost receipts, no lost jobs.
The cause of todays sell off and the key to the possible fate of JOG's project is this one statement taken directly from Labours new manifesto..... "We will also increase the rate of the levy by three percentage points, as well as removing the unjustifiably generous investment allowances"
The 3% increase was known and not news, what still isn't clear even after today is does "Investment allowances" include the Capital allowance or not, it depends how you read and interpret the sentence.. it's ambiguous, maybe deliberately so. Once in power Labour could certainly say yes of course it means ALL allowances.. in which case JOG is probably screwed or at least on hold but they could just as easiliy say we stated "investment allowances" we made no mention of capital allowances and we fully understand that we will choke NS investment royally if we include that. Autumn budget is still the decider for JOG.
Think project will be on hold for now. It’s sad for all long term holders.
Started: MunnieTorx, 13 Jun 2024 12:39
Last post: MunnieTorx, 13 Jun 2024 17:02
Monsa. Merely pointing out the overwhelming risk that with allowances likely pulled JOG doesnt go ahead in North Sea. Hardly groundbreaking or controversial... hence why the market sold this off so heavily. The risk with this manifesto is now a sword of Damacles. No investor likes this kind of risk on AIM. So, JOG likely sinks back to IPO level. And it is not outside the realms of possibility it goes to single digits if the deal is ultimately snuffed off. Look at LBE.
Labour will sink North Sea oil. Just unlucky timing for JOG. Win some lose some...
It might trade around but the outlook is heavy red days for the forseeable with small recoveries.
There is a B@STARd called "MunnieTorx" with a short and is doing numbers from the backside
Meow. There's the little dead cat raising its head.
R.I.P. kitty.
Mmmmm. Timber! 😔
Think the market has cottoned on to the macro here. There will likely be a small dead cat but day on day this is plunging to IPO levels.
Alas. What a state.
Sad to see JOG, a once very good prospect, suffer at the hand of political instability and dumb net zero policy propaganda.
If Labour get in *which they clearly will* it is in my opinion an almost certainty that its regime will cause the plug to be pulled on North Sea drilling and JOG with it.
I see 50p as a real possibility here in the next 6 months, and then lower unless JOG can pull a rabbit out of a hat. So far no hat and no rabbit anywhere to be seen. Never thought would see the day.
Lets see what mess Starmer makes of North Sea oil to appeasee his tribes of gerbils.
R.I.P. JOG in July/August, realistically.
Started: Paitech, 13 Jun 2024 15:24
Last post: Paitech, 13 Jun 2024 15:24
Hi All, long term holder, didn't sell wen it went higher...
Do we know the reason for today's sudden fall?
Not been following on daily basis.
Thanks G
Started: Jamella, 13 Jun 2024 14:49
Last post: buchanan101, 13 Jun 2024 14:57
Also this:
"But following criticism, including from the Unite union over potential loss of jobs, Labour also insisted it will not revoke existing licences and that the North Sea will be managed in a way that does not jeopardise jobs."
And
"The P.2498 Buchan licence was awarded to JOG in 2019"
Oversold? Buying opportunity?!
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but the Labour manifesto says "We will not issue new licences to explore new fields ". What do JOG hold as assets, I had understood we had explored fields, and were waiting for investment in drilling, not further licenses to explore. Is that a misunderstanding, or is there a semantic point that says we might be OK and that we could see drilling under existing licenses in e4xisting identified fields?
Started: karmakanix., 13 Jun 2024 14:29
Last post: karmakanix., 13 Jun 2024 14:29
I was one of the weak sellers who sold out at 300 and traded jog many times over the years. Hope the strong holders are enjoying the ride ;-)))
I am happy to take my 5% easy access interest rather than the ultra high risk gamble here.
Started: Greener101, 13 Jun 2024 11:37
Last post: onthe6, 13 Jun 2024 11:53
Think it’ll help calm some nerves if our ceo could show his face doing some interviews. Also explain jog’s plans if Neo decides to put the project on hold.
Increase in the tax rate until the end of the next parliment and removal of the tax breaks now confirmed https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/ who would buy aim o&g shares now. There can be a deluge of posts denying climate change and the state of our politicians but at the end of the day I only see this share price going one way for the next few years. Hopefully FDP approval might make things look a bit more hopeful but not holding my breath. They haven't even bothered updating their corporate presentation since the update on dates at the AGM, Kicking myself for being greedy and not selling at £3 last year. With the shareprice of the floor and needing what cash they have to keep things going the next few years they look like they've missed the boat to buy cheap producing assets, best course of action for me now is forget I have any shares here.
Urg that graph looks horrible. I'm not really interested in it, or know anything about it, but doesn't look like much stopping it going down from here.
But I look back at previous bottoms, and we were always just before some news that was needed. and then it rebounds.
We may be a while away from that clarification however. Although it could slip out anytime.
Started: dickupham, 12 Jun 2024 16:40
Last post: MPO818, 12 Jun 2024 19:55
Excellent post DU. Surely our politicians are not blind/deaf to this type of issue - New Zealand is not a 3rd world country - just pure negligence to ignore this issue and the impact fuel shortage and blackouts could have.
Maybe, once they have power they will change track.
Please Neo-Serica-Jog request a special meeting with our smartest ever labourist team.
From the Telegraph today:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/12/jacinda-ardern-new-zealand-blackout-keir-starmer-learn/
A few extracts for those who aren't subscribers:
"How Jacinda Ardern left New Zealand on the brink of blackouts
Fallout from country’s oil ban offers dire warning for a Labour-run Britain"............
........."Sir Keir Starmer is standing by a pledge to ban new drilling in the North Sea, despite New Zealand abandoning a similar policy amid blackout fears. Labour’s manifesto, due out on Thursday, will feature a pledge to block all new licensing for oil and gas as one of its key energy policies. The party “will not be issuing licences to explore new [oil and gas] fields as we accelerate to clean power”, a Labour spokesman confirmed on Tuesday".......
"It follows last weekend’s announcement that New Zealand’s government was lifting a ban on new oil and gas exploration".............
........."some in the (Labour) party are now questioning the commitment, after New Zealand resources minister Shane Jones last weekend denounced its own ban as a disaster – and revoked it. It followed three years of rising energy prices that have left 110,000 households unable to warm their homes, 19pc of households struggling with bills and 40,000 of them having their power cut off due to unpaid bills, according to Consumer NZ. Since April the situation has further deteriorated: Transpower, the equivalent of our National Grid, warned that the nation was at high risk of blackouts"..........
"Sean Rush, a leading New Zealand barrister specialising in petroleum licensing law and climate litigation, called the oil and gas ban economic vandalism at its worst in exchange for virtue signalling at its finest”.
"Rush warned Labour off a copycat policy, saying: “There will be no benefits to UK energy security by banning new exploration drilling. You will simply disown an industry in which the UK has been world-leading.”
If Buchan doesn't go ahead, if one assumes a tax rate of 40% and an oil price of £80pb, the Treasury will forego £4bn of tax receipts Buchan would have generated. Yet still Labour persists. And a big percentage of the UK population supports them (according to the polls). A smaller (but still significant number support the Lib Dems and the Green Party) whose policies are even more draconian.
I reckon there'd be fun to be had out of introducing Greta Thunberg to the Green Party's co-leader, Carla Denyer (a nontheist Quaker who describes herself as bisexual or pansexual and is a vegan - just the sort to be representing the people). Not sure who would do what, with what and to whom. Speculation welcomed.
imo/dyor
Started: onthe6, 10 Jun 2024 09:09
Last post: CUPHALFULL, 11 Jun 2024 12:40
Re: DU clement freud -.thank you Dick, brilliant !
Definitely something eerie about Thunberg that would make me wary of leaving her alone in the house with a box of matches
Donkey, please! I find the thought of Greta without clothes (even figuratively) highly distasteful.
Sadly, in the case of anthropogenic climate change, the clothes have no emperor.
I think this is a board about Jersey Oil and Gas (or is it Guernsey?). Sadly, there is nothing to say about this. Looks like Benitez and his fellow execs and bored Board members have been marginalised by the operator and other paying JV member. ‘A year’s delay’ - who knows what the price of breakfast and Buckfastleigh tonic wine might be by then?
It’s my expectation (hope) that when the party of the Red Flag gets elected, the unions and someone sensible in The Treasury (if that’s not an oxymoron) will stop some of their ‘sillier’ = damaging, policies (stopping or further damaging NS Oil) from being enacted.
Labour has effectively given up on ‘The Climate” - It mentions Switching on Great British Energy but there is no rhetoric about saving the planet etc. So I have some hope the Millibrain will be reigned in. If the Labour Party has finally realised that there is no ‘Climate Crisis’, there may be some hope.
If, at this late stage, the so called Conservative Party would acknowledge that there is no ‘climate crisis’ and that the country cannot afford ‘Net Zero’, they could yet improve their election chances. But successive Tory ‘governments’ from Cameron to Sunak have endorsed this ‘religion’ to the country’s detriment.
I remain optimistic that my 2 shares on GOG (or was it JOG? Couldn’t be Sark , as that would make it SOG (however appropriate that would be)) might one day be valuable enough to buy me breaking in Buckfastleigh with that accompanying flagon of the local tonic wine. I’d better look out the share certificates. I hope the dog hasn’t eatern them.
Dr Thunberg, DPhil, PhD is certainly appearing to be the emporer with no clothes - it's all a bit of a con, designed to funnel large amounts of taxpayer resources to the chosen few who support the politicians. Most people don't even consider that without "global warming" humanity would never have come to exist on earth as we know it today: who are they going to blame for that, oil companies and internal combustion engine cars?! The unbelievable arrogance of humanity to claim that what we do has such a disproportionate effect on the world... but then again, Dr Thunberg was the one lecturing the UN as a schoolgirl with no education and no scientific knowledge - the only thing she said with which I agreed was: "I shouldn't even be here...I should be back in Sweden in school!" (All downhill from my perspective after that.)