Jersey Oil & Gas plc Share Chat (JOG)

We are now buying oil and related refined products from Russia. There seems to be no reference directly back to our energy minister Mr Miliband for this decision. The news agencies reference just a faceless and nameless UK spokesman.

How can Miliband stall both Rosebank and Jackdaw while purchasing the essential resources from Putin especially while he is still war mongering in Ukraine. No wonder Miliband does not want to be associated with this decision. Why has he not directly commented, he is after all our energy minister. Perhaps he is just too busy, almost two years and still thinking about sanctioning Rosebank and Jackdaw. Current situation is just unbelievable, why are oil executives and the opposition not calling this out. Beggars belief!

JS - I've been in since Dec 22 - so a new boy by some standards - but its not over yet.

I appreciate your point Cuphalful . At a guess the FDP would be submitted to the NSTA sometime later this year . In the meantime I’m definitely not buying any more shares . There are other opportunities out there and I feel a lot of investors have lost out here . I’m not a trader and have been invested here for a good while . It’s been nothing short of a disaster!.

@ JS - " Seeing your wealth erode on a daily basis is too much ." - It is notable you no longer see price falls as buying opportunities and today's price is indeed uncomfortable, but as someone on this board stated quite a while ago the price will fluctuate between now and the draft FDP being submitted - which when we should worry if the SP is 88p in response to that event. The current price drop has been caused by a 5% holder unloading, probably a large trader who now sees no quick pay-off and switched to something else. UBS was not necessarily the holder, but the broker and has been handling 5% in and out transactions before.

DiveCentre I’m actually a fan of Frank Sinatra 😎

I am negative because there is no positivity in this.

James instead of moaning about the negative you should

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Qk9o_ZeR7s&list=RD5Qk9o_ZeR7s&start_radio=1

Happily the outcome of this vote could make Burnham unelectable in the upcoming by-election.

Reform will be all over the outcome, and if they have any sense the Tories will not even contest the seat.

Isn't the Bill about blocking new field exploration - obviously general sentiment is affected, but aren't JOGs plans uunnaffected

These Fabian’s abhor oil companies and absolutely love open borders and filling lazy people pockets with our hard earnt taxes . They are here to self destruct. I don’t see any positivity until the next election whenever that happens .

Don't see this as a positive, Labour will want to show unity after all the shenanigans over changing PM last week, they will rally round and vote down any bill put before them

The outcome of this could be quite telling, but I'm not confident of a positive outcome for the industry.

I just do not understand Labour's stance on it when you factor in job losses and affected communities etc it goes againt their core values to me.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/2206905/ed-miliband-oil-and-gas

AI can be wrong - as it warns.

Starting another GoogleAI session now produces similar but significantly different version of the 2026 Autumn Budget issue.

AI now reports there have been no Treasury leaks/noises but the Serica reported statements are accurate but have been issued as a pre-emptive warning to the Government/Treasury.

Re Milliband, google AI suggests that - on balance - there is every reason to be optimistic about JOG clearing the Milliband hurdle specifically - not just the regulatory hurdles.

However it is less optimistic about the upcoming Autum Budget suggesting Treasury leaks to the effect that Capital Allowances in the industry could be abolished, causing Serica to warn the Treasury that that would spell the end of the Buchan project and much else as well.

@EA - " Should I be more worried about Miliband (Ed of the variety) banning bacon rolls than not allowing North Sea oil and gas production "

Well video of him eating a bacon roll should certainly not be allowed on TV before the watershed, and then with one of those warnings about 'containing explicit scenes from the start'

Should I be more worried about Miliband (Ed of the variety) banning bacon rolls than not allowing North Sea oil and gas production 🥓🥪 and , perhaps just as importantly, might he ban ( or tax ) brown sauce?

Poortiming: Not sure why you mentioned the brother Milliband;

If you go back 40 years to Michael Foot & Co, the lefty Labour Party were rejected, But being closet Stalinists there is no way they will ever simply accept being rejected. So they pretend that it was because they were ' Not Left Enough' which gives them a pretext to hang in there and continue despite the fact they have been democratically rejected by the majority of the population, And so they go on, time and again to the present. It couldn't be more clear the population do not want hard-left policies ruling in the UK, yet the current Labour Party will pretend that a harder -left stance is what the electorate now want and will go and do what suits their ideological intentions anyway - I come back to my point that it is the Conservative Party that gave us this Labour Government - thanks Tories - dont call us, we'll call you, but unlikely, never again.

Thats interesting, but didn't someone on this board a little while ago point out that UBS had their own reasons, not necessarily confidence in JOG's venture,

to be doing a sort of ongoing hokey-cokey re JOG shares

>5% acquisition. Price rise early next week ?

DivaCentre: I must disagree on the general point - responsibility for the 400+ seats Labour gained at the 2024 General Election lies directlty at the feet of the then Conservative government, due not to the electorate's attraction to Labour but their revulsion at the Conservatives. Everything flows from this overwhelming Labour victory, but in general very little is of any great surprise than could not have been predicted in 2024. Not once did the Tories consider the national interest while conducting themselves incompentently and the need to prevent an overwhelming Labour victory. That you would have thought was the main raison d'etre of the Conservative Party, but by that time it was barely recognisable as centre right party anymore.

A Burnham ( or even Streeter) PM is much more likely to listen to union wishes regarding the North Sea O &G industry, than a Starmer PM frightened to overule Milliband

If memory serves me Sunak announced the windfall tax following Shells results in 2022 and calls by both Labour and the Liberals for such a tax. It was conveniently ignored by those making the calls that most of Shells profits came from their worldwide operations and therefore beyond the scope of UK taxation. Sunac and the Tories were not keen to introduce it but it was politically expedient. It was introduced at a rate of 75% and had a sunset clause which would have ended the measure in 2025.

Following the 2024 election when Labour came to power the sunset clause was abandoned and the rate increased to 78%.

It is somewhat perverse to blame the current situation on the previous government. Had the Tories not introduced the tax it is a guaranteed certainty that Labour would introduced it in some form or another following their electoral success in 2024. What has further stymied Buchan is the scope 3 emmisions test as a result of the Finch ruling in June 24. Had the Tories remained in power legislation could have been introduced to deal with this. Under Labour with Miliband in charge of energy the court ruling is a convenient way of stifling NS development.

You are 100% right Cuphalf big ears started this and Labour have accelerated it

@ JamesSimon - " Problem with this Marxist government they have too much power "

We've got the Conservative Party to thank for Labour getting 400+ seats and absolute power in the House of Commons - we should never forget that . Sunak was a disaster as a Chancellor and as PM - his commitment to the Country is questionable as well.

Its taking so long to get to FID and this 537P, that I'm not sure that if I'd put my initial investment in a Nat-West deposit account paying 1.85% interest p.a.

that the final result might not have run the eventual JOG pay-off to a close thing.

Wow that is very poor !. There are plenty of places where you can invest and make money than get stuck here . It’s the government’s fault and not the company

FID now predicted 2027 - did I imagine that the last prediction was ' late 2026' ?

Maintain their previous SP's following the results, with emphasis on the strong cash position. More patience required.

As expected , nothing new just waiting for the government to kick out Stormer and Milliwonk so that we can have a sensible energy policy of opening up the CNS basin !!.

I’m afraid until this happens the share is not going anywhere .

Hold .

I agree with you MP0818 . Seems everyone in the Labour Party are afraid of Miliband and letting him run havoc on the energy markets .One thing for certain mad Ed will not let go of his zealotry easily .

The articles ante Miliband's NET ZERO grow by the day, according to Starmer, Miliband is wholly responsible for the policy. Whilst this stance continues there is no way forward for the Buchan project.

Perhaps it is time for the owners of Rosebank and Jackdaw to start legal proceedings for damages to their businesses and recovery of capital costs to date.

New article in The Telegraph today:

Ed Miliband’s net zero blitz fails to prevent rise in emissions

The UK generated more carbon emissions from its energy supplies last year despite Ed Miliband’s renewables push.

In a blow to the Energy Secretary’s decarbonisation drive, greenhouse gas emissions released from electricity producers were up 2.8pc in 2025, according to energy analysts Montel.

That is despite a flood of new wind and solar farms being connected to the grid, alongside a planned move to switch off the UK’s last coal power station.

Montel blamed the increase on bottlenecks across the UK’s power network, which leads to turbines being switched off when the grid is too congested to accept their power.

This lost generating capacity then has to be replaced with electricity from gas-fired power stations, leading to extra emissions.

These power plants must also step in when output from wind and solar plummets, for instance when it is cloudy or when there’s no breeze.

Miliband's green energy is going to waste, says EDF boss

Montel’s report said: “Power generated from carbon-emitting sources rose by 5.7pc in 2025 compared to 2024 despite the complete removal of coal from the energy mix in September 2024.

“This led to a 2.8pc increase in carbon emissions from power generation in GB compared to 2024.

“This reflects the continued reliance on gas-fired generation to provide flexibility and security of supply, particularly during periods of low renewable output or high demand.”

The latest figures highlight the ongoing importance of gas within the UK’s energy mix, casting doubt over Mr Miliband’s pledge to achieve almost entirely clean power by 2030.

It also highlights the issue of wasted wind, which not only triggers higher emissions but also costs the taxpayer billions of pounds.

When wind turbines are asked to switch off, their owners can claim compensation through so-called constraint payments, the cost of which is then added to bills.

The National Energy System Operator, the organisation responsible for keeping the lights on, then has to pay a premium to fire up gas-fired power stations.

The combination of the two cost billpayers £1.5bn last year......

I’ve just listened to the PM’s speech. I noted that he mentioned ‘energy’ twice. He didn’t once mention ‘climate change’ or ‘net zero’. That makes me optimistic for a potentially helpful component of the King’s speech, helpful towards the North Sea and hence the development of Buchan. Maybe Ed Miliband should be worried about his tenure?. I hope so.

@JS - " If you look at France when Macron suffered heavy losses they called in an election ."

Back bench Labour MPs would have to go along with a motion of No-Confidence in the government - do turkeys vote for Christmas.

They'll be in no hurry to give up a £95K job where they can choose their own hours and how much work they do.

If you look at France when Macron suffered heavy losses they called in an election .

The British people need to rally around the opposition . They are destroying the fabric of this country . Can you recognise parts of London ??. The election results speak for themselves . The Uk has become a third world country . People are abusing the welfare system and the government are giving out free money for votes . I’m a high rate tax payer and feel sick at seeing the way our taxes are spent .I have thought about leaving but then why should I let them win . I love this country , my father served in the army and fought for our freedom . He would be turning in his grave if he saw what we are seeing today .

James, who would call snap election?

Miliband is poised to become the chancellor . He is a zealot who won’t give up easily . Net zero is a religion and there is no compromise.

The only way this lot could get booted out is if there is civil unrest and chaos . A snap election is the answer . I’m afraid until this vile little man is in politics the NS is doomed .

Hard to know what to wish for this morning. Starmer, and Reeves, are great assets for Reform (& others to be honest) & you'd want to be fighting a general election with them still in their posts. Trouble is you don't want them limping on for the next 3 years with their net stupid zero policies etc. Farage reckons there will be a general election in 2027 - let's hope he's right.

Https://www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/248ddc9d60e01e0b

Will have to wait another 3 years, its going to get worse, Starmer is going to be replaced by Burnham or Angie, Milliband has thrown is hat in the ring for the chancelors job, God help us

When will these socialist lot get booted out . Seems like we have been waiting forever . Very long term holders patience has been significantly tested .

BP giving up on the North Sea, if that’s what they decide, & moving their primary listing to the US is what that d*** head Milliband deserves. Not that he’ll worry but there’s plenty who will.

Poor timing I should have chosen my words carefully

. See the link they are weighing up the possibility . I hope they don’t .

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/bp-weighs-potential-exit-from-uk-north-sea-bloomberg-news-reports-305s3030tdcx2tv.html

No it's not.

BP are abandoning the Central Basin due to the very high WFT in the UK

I should add that the picture for JOG may become brighter if we see oil at or over 150 dollars a barrel.

DiveCentre

The writing has been on the wall for Miliband for nigh on 2 years - the problem is the person with the ability and responsibility is deaf and cannot read. He tried to move Miliband in the last government reshuffle and Miliband refused to move. The leader has no authority at all.

A humiliating defeat on the 7th May may well see significant changes. Reeves is desperate for more money to waste on welfare and the public sector, but even her position is rumoured to be in question. What comes next could be worse, if that is possible.

Is this the writing on the wall for Miliband?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/05/01/starmer-immigration-oil-set-to-hand-snp-victory-scotland/

Even if Reeves reduces the tax it doesn't look like it will help JOG if Milliband blocks new licenses https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/04/03/miliband-expected-to-block-north-sea-oil-drilling/ very frustrating situation

Page3

Ms Reeves can help industry by ditching punitive levies that make exploration so unattractive. Tax receipts are declining exactly because the Treasury is trying to squeeze far too much from the system. In economic terms, Ms Reeves is on the front line of the Iran crisis. She, above all others in the cabinet, should understand the logic of maximising a valuable national asset.

Exactly very sad state of affairs . How can one imbecile hold the whole energy industry to ransom . This will sadly fall further if the imbecile become PM .

Milliband is a nightmare. JOG must be sick of the signt of him haunting this project one way or another. He's now apparently in the frame to replace Starmer if he goes. You couldn't make it up if you tried :-(

Serica buy out NEO 50% share and become the Buchan operator. They have plenty of available cash post their bond issue. Guess we will find out soon which of their available assets they plan to develop. Feel sure they will develop organically given that the cost of new acquisitions will now be much inflated.

How much longer can Milliband stall the Rosebank and Jackdaw developments? Anyway whatever happens the twit won't be there for too much longer, this labour shambles will be toast at the next election hopefully before.

Very quiet on this board given what is happening given POO and the Middle East. Could do with some infomed retired accountant running some motivational numbers reflecting the new norm of a 90 dollar barrel.

Also anybody know what has happened to the FPSO Western Isle?

GLA. our time will eventually arrive.

Drill, baby, drill!

Whilst Witkoff, Kushner and Vance were negotiating with Iran, Trump was busy watching the ufc . Oil prices heading North tomorrow . More and more pressure on the zealot wan@er who now must be feeling the pressure .

As far as I might understand it . Simple explanation of the recent TR-1s

UBS isn’t a new long-term shareholder. What you’re seeing is them briefly going above 5% and then back to zero — twice. That’s typical trading book / block facilitation. They temporarily hold stock while placing it, then distribute it.

The more meaningful bit is the appearance of Tejara / Stylus at ~5.7%. That’s a real investor, not a broker.

Put together, it suggests that a sizeable chunk of stock (~10%) has moved through the market recently and been absorbed, rather than dumped.

At this stage it lookslike a change in ownership / new money coming in.

Key thing to watch now is whether any new names appear in further TR-1s.

Can some one explain these tr1s, they can't be trading such a large position constantly? thank you x

Tony Blair has been stressing to the inept lot about ENERGY SECURITY. When will someone takeout this zealot , this is now becoming a joke .

This ME crisis plays into the renewables narrative IMO. That said O&G away from the UK looks good as risk premium is likely to stay eleveated . Poor old labour dont know which way to look first

" The energy shock from the Iran war is ‘more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2002 together’, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned."

I dont see how that can be - in 1973 OPEC quadrupled the price of oil overnight and then that became more or less normal price - western nations all had to adjust and within 12 months I believe inflation in the UK hit 25% - it doesn't look like anything of that magnitude is happening.

The energy shock from the Iran war is ‘more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2002 together’, the head of the International Energy Agency has warned.

and our Government continues to kick the ball down the renewables road - Crazy.

Looks like a straight swap on holdings to take advantage of new tax allowance. nothing to see here.

What are we thinking?

Very interesting

"That, however, is the perverse logic of the UN’s carbon accounting convention, of which this country has been an unquestioning acolyte. As the paper Premeditated Industrial Destruction, whose lead author is the economist Catherine McBride, last week encapsulated it: “The sum total of the UK’s pursuit of net zero CO2 emissions has been to offshore energy intensive industrial production at the cost of hundreds of thousands of jobs [and] billions of tax revenues”."

Extract from a comment article in today's Times. Summarises the stupidity quite accurately I feel.

From the Times editorial this morning. pressure is growing

wars have a habit of concentrating minds. They sweep away complacency and lay bare harsh truths. One reality exposed in the month since America attacked Iran is that opposing a military operation does not confer immunity from its secondary effects. Britain is learning this to its cost as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins to bite. Oil and gas prices have spiked, inflation is rising and growth is set to fall. In a forecast issued by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development last week, the United Kingdom’s growth prospects suffered the sharpest downgrade in the G7. The United States, meanwhile, is expected to experience healthier growth than forecast. Geopolitically, life isn’t fair.

One reason is Britain’s exposure to the global energy market. While the shale oil and gas revolution re-established the US as an important energy producer, this country is an importer, vulnerable to price volatility. Oil and gas shocks inevitably permeate the entire economy. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer, will no doubt spend some of her Easter poring over progressively more alarming Treasury impact assessments. There is one ray of hope, however: Ms Reeves has begun to recognise the value locked up in Britain’s as yet untapped fossil fuel reserves in the North Sea.

When asked in an interview with the BBC whether she was happy with drilling in home waters, Ms Reeves replied: “I’m very happy that we are.” She went on: “North Sea oil and gas will play an important role in our energy mix for years to come, and we’re very lucky to have that resource.” This potentially puts her on a collision course with Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, who believes the path to salvation lies in expanding renewables and choking off North Sea production by refusing to grant new exploration licences. This, even as Britain continues to import gas by pipeline from Norway and, increasingly, in liquefied form (LNG) from the US and Qatar.

The fires of hell:

https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1ZWIeS.img?w=634&h=636&m=6&x=274&y=180&s=194&d=194

.....scroll down beyond all the paraphenalia about who to contact etc to "Chairman and CEO's Statement" and onto "UK Oil and Gas sector": it also included:

" we will have to wait and see how government intends to tax the industry in the longer term, and we hope for a balance between ensuring a fair return for investors and maximising government revenues. It is probably true to say that the current fiscal regime is demonstrating exactly how the Laffer curve works in practice, we are on the wrong side of the Laffer curve, and in fact government revenues will rise with a more attractive fiscal regime. We are confident that sense will prevail, and the industry will have a bright future in the UK. But we will all have to wait for the outcome of these consultations before any company commits to a new development project of scale and we are optimistic that Ping will move forward with its North Sea development portfolio once the mists have cleared in Spring.

However, despite all the gloom we see great opportunity in the UK. The pendulum always swings too far and this time taxes have gone too high, and the hurdles development projects have to clear have become too many. Things will change and there is hope that the companies that stick by the UK will eventually prosper".

One wonders what further information Milband has demanded of Rosebank & Jackdaw, after instructing the NSTA to sit on the FDP applications for months, as the UK continues to slip steadily into the abyss...................

...........legal proceedings will probably kick off when the NSTA (on Miliband's instructions after discussing things with the former Crown Prosecutor) tells Equnior/Shell/Ithaca they have failed to meet some deadline or other (entirely as a result of the NSTA's intransigence).

Dishonesty at the highest level.

Re ORCA RNS 16/12/2024

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/orcadian-energy-ORCA/share-news/Orcadian-Energy-PLC-Results-for-the-year-ended-30-June-2024/95099286

This is the KP video I was looking for. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8I4PrSRXI4

It's 17 mins long - take the time to watch it. She has many videos on YouTube, all of which expose the ignorance and destructive behaviour of Miliband and his henchmen. The damage they are doing to our country is incalculable.

It might interest some to consider again what was said by the CEO and Chairman of Orcadian Energy when they presented ORCA's H1 2024 results on 16 Dec '24. The comments that interested me were around the lack of concern they had over the new Scope 3 emissions requirements (introduced following the Finch ruling), which introduced another hurdle for UKCS companies to jump.

The key part of ORCA's statement relates to the de minimis effect on CO2 production of ANY individual project to produce oil and gas in the North Sea:

"From Orcadian's perspective, the Finch ruling does not raise concerns for us. Quantifying the impact of Scope 3 emissions is a reasonable step, as their effect is expected to be negligible. As an example, the Rosebank field will produce about 300 MMbbl of oil, that when combusted will produce about 134 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, which will increase the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere by just under 0.02 parts per million, assuming nature absorbs nothing - a very unlikely assumption given about half of the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels since the industrial revolution has been so absorbed. Using the IPCC central estimate for the impact on global temperatures of a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration - 3ºC - that increase in carbon dioxide concentration could increase global temperature by less than two ten thousandths of a degree, far below the level that any creature could perceive.

This is why action on climate change needs global agreement on actions to reduce demand for fossil fuel energy. Constraining supply can only impact demand by increasing the price of energy; increasing the price of energy will undermine support for any climate action. So, politicians and engineers alike need to focus on delivering low-carbon energy for the lowest cost possible. That is why our Earlham project is so important. It will deliver low to no carbon energy at an affordable cost and on a dispatchable basis. We hope to learn from that project so that we can implement repeat projects at lower costs.

Nevertheless, because of the Finch ruling both Shell's Jackdaw project and Equinor's Rosebank project will have to be re-approved, and the government will have to re-issue guidance on how EIA documents are prepared".

I am not aware ORCA's comments have been challenged. The question (to me) is: why has the UKCS industry not agreed a standard text, along the lines of what ORCA claims, to accompany all FDP applications? I wonder how NeoNext+/Serica/JOG have dealt with Scope 3 in Buchan's FDP?

I'll provide a link to the relevant RNS in a separate post

dyor

............more sense

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AN1zudqyy8

Sir Keir Starmer summoned bosses from the energy, shipping and banking sectors to Downing Street, seeking a “joint effort” to combat soaring prices.

Following Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have surged to around $114 a barrel, threatening a severe crisis in energy, petrol and food costs.

Admitting that the Government could not tackle this fallout “on its own”, the Prime Minister urged industry leaders to help protect British households as he scrambled to finalise a “viable plan”.