Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Surety et al. confirming the rns . it so happens that my daughter and i are in the process of buying houses. it required some disposal of JOG shares. that exercise is finished now. otherwise nothing has changed, whilst disappointed (as is everyone) that the SP is in flat mode my opinion that JOG has a promising future is still held. Am also happy with AB. to me the only significant cloud is the likely incoming leftie govt which may or may not play to the green gallery. i totally support the policy of ensuring the UK has its own energy production whether it's oil/gas/windfarms/nuclear. As none of the green ones are in no position to replace oil/gas for the next 10/15 years it is better to continue to encourage the North sea. and not import at higher cost from outside sources. i am sure the GMB union will have something more to say as well.
JS my thoughts are that this is very welcome news as it takes further uncertainty away. in terms of possible hostile acquisition i think it extremely unlikely for shareholders to agree a bid of £4. a good 40% are LTH. my family (inc myself) have 10%+ and no way would we agree to that.
AB was in London yesterday seeing institutional investors. i met up with him after that. the reason for "silence" is that there is nothing to say. the project is going to plan and announcements are still scheduled for 4th quarter. Relationship with Neo is fine. AB doing a fair amount of networking whilst the operational staff are deep into hand overs with NEO. pretty standard stuff. no particular reason to feel fearful of a crisis round the corner
Surety, you ask for views... one conclusion is that JOG has too many IC investors ie those who look to make say 15% in three weeks and then sell. each to their own but JOG needs some more longer term institutional investors. that could well come later this year. i know AB is setting out for a sales drive with the very same in the very near future so maybe that will raise the price...
This is massive news. i had been given the wink it was very likely and its a pity that it has taken so long. nevertheless it will give north sea investment a shot in the arm. banks previously had taken a very cautious attitude to lending just in case the price fell down to $50 or so. now banks will have a lot more confidence.
in addition rishi has been very clear about govt policy (at last) and starmer has shot a brilliant own goal even having the unions questioning his eco zealot attitudes. i would put my house on the price going up - oops done that already!
Greener.. i have opposite information. the govt are just waiting for things to calm down a bit and (very likely) will then introduce an EPL floor - probably in the next month. it is understood that currently banks are very cautious in this field and the introduction of the EPL will be a significant confidence boost to this sector.
i have no intention of selling.
AB called me on Friday. my conclusion was that generally the headwinds are very much in JOG's favour but sometimes the little issues can delay things so precise forecasting can sometimes be difficult. my take is that there should be positive news end of April but no-one should collapse with anxiety if it stretches into May. meanwhile as per DU - don't sell!
james, i have been involved in 4 acquisitions in the last 10 years. every one has been the same in terms of time - ie way over the forecast end date. it is usually that people involved underestimate the pernickity nonsense of lawyers with their "what if" questions. there will be may different groups involved as well. so in summary i am not that surprised. i am sure AB has (had) the best intentions when he made his forecasts but there could well be delays. the good news remains that many directors have shares and essentially there has not been much significant exits (bar one) from major shareholders. so i know the wait is painful but the fundamentals remain good.
james, just seen this. i can confirm quite categorically i have not sold any shares in the last 18 months. i have no intention of doing so. i know my son is thinking of a small increase. we all believe the same ie the fundamentals are sound. it is a pity it is taking so long but i understand the govt have been a bit flaky in the last three months. it looks to me that is settling down so...on we go!
morning Dick, and likewise always a pleasure to hear from you and that your blasted illness is not getting you down (too much). i also agree this time is different. the key word from AB was "October". he was never going to be so precise unless there really is significant progress. of course even at DD stage things can fall apart but the better probability is how you have outlined things. Having already thrown in the kitchen sink, last week i threw in some gold plated taps, so my shareholding has increased a bit.
James, you asked my views particularly about the silence. well nothing has changed. my view is dominated by the possibility that the share price will reach £10+ in due course. therefore the odd delay is not significant. i agree there are many positive issues coming together at the moment and the new prime minister's support for more UK production is very welcome. At this moment my son , 3 daughters, and my fiance have all bought in so there is going to be a mighty implosion if JOG fails us!
suddenly thrust into the limelight.... it is true that between us (myself, son and daughter) we probably hold around 10% of the shares. i talk with AB very seldom and i respect that i am not allowed inside information. my overall view is very similar to Dick's ie i am glad AB brought in ex directors from Ithaca. and the "climate" for investment has changed dramatically in the last twelve months. personally i think that is half the problem ie during covid it was very difficult to value such an asset which was on its knees and now it is the opposite . both cases make it very difficult for an agreement to be reached. Dick's experience and comments are superb and he explains things far better than i so i am happy to take a back seat. i have been involved in oil logisiics but i am no expert on the north sea. BP and Foinaven should be a clear marker for JOG. keep waiting chaps!
You may remember a post a few days ago from bob333 (my son). Anyway I can confirm that for the last few days I have been on a massive buying spree. Hence SP rising from 135 to 150. I am only half way so the price will continue to rise. And yes Dick once completed there will be an RNS
dick and poor timing. yes it is a bit arbitrary. when i raised my stake by £170k about 6 months ago i was advised that it is only necessary if i increase my % by more that .5%.
the issue of my son is also clear. our collective shareholding is separate from a legal point of view unless i lent him the money (i did not ). its just that we are likely to consult and agree if there is a shareholder vote on anything significant
tommy 393 - you asked if i was still in. answer is i sure am and until today have not bought/sold for many weeks. however i decided today to sneak under the wire while all is quiet and possibly hostile (cop26) to but two tranches at £100k each. Dick that answers your question - well spotted. whilst i take in everything that DU tells us and very worthwhile it is , to me the simple fundamentals are straight forward ie JOG is sitting on 126mbs of certified oil. given the already stated cost of extraction at $30pb and today's price of $82pb we have gross margin of $6.5b. to me it is unnecessary to try and convert that to a share price because it will definitely be greater than £15 a share. and that is fine by me. my son agrees and between us we probably have around 6%. and we are not selling.