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James, can confiorm i attended with about 12 others. AB presented an upbeat forecast mainly because he is sure that this by-election is going to cause disruption whichever way it goes and that will benefit the north sea operators. All speculation but already things are falling apart. As there was not too much that was specific there is not much to report other than he was convinced rosebank and the others , including Buchan, will get the green light before October.

He could be right and i hope so but as usual we have to wait and see.

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Ms Reeves can help industry by ditching punitive levies that make exploration so unattractive. Tax receipts are declining exactly because the Treasury is trying to squeeze far too much from the system. In economic terms, Ms Reeves is on the front line of the Iran crisis. She, above all others in the cabinet, should understand the logic of maximising a valuable national asset.

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Ms Reeves could say she was referring to the Jackdaw gasfield off Aberdeen and the Rosebank oilfield off Shetland, which would be pumping out wealth for Britain now were it not for legal and bureaucratic heel-dragging. Hopefully, they will come on stream later this year, creating jobs and additional tax receipts. But Ms Reeves’s comments hint at the possibility that the government could go further and ditch its illogical policy of banning new exploration for harder-to-access deposits.

As war in the Gulf continues with no sign of an end, energy security is assuming more and more importance. Wind and solar are too variable to power the country alone, and gas will remain essential for decades — that is, until nuclear expansion, another plodder, can replace it. Britain will always need foreign gas but the threat to security of supply inherent in imports can be lessened by maximising resources closer to home, as Norway is doing. Mr Miliband argues that the UK can climb off the gas price “rollercoaster” only by embracing renewables, as if gas is dispensable. It isn’t.

If energy companies are prepared to risk money developing residual gas and oilfields, then what possible objection can Mr Miliband have to them? The gas has to come from somewhere, so why not here? In any case, North Sea gas has a smaller carbon footprint than LNG. This is not only about price: Britain needs as much local gas as possible to ensure supply during crises. As Sir James Dyson argues in these pages, fracking, too, should be included in the UK’s energy mix.

From the Times editorial this morning. pressure is growing

wars have a habit of concentrating minds. They sweep away complacency and lay bare harsh truths. One reality exposed in the month since America attacked Iran is that opposing a military operation does not confer immunity from its secondary effects. Britain is learning this to its cost as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz begins to bite. Oil and gas prices have spiked, inflation is rising and growth is set to fall. In a forecast issued by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development last week, the United Kingdom’s growth prospects suffered the sharpest downgrade in the G7. The United States, meanwhile, is expected to experience healthier growth than forecast. Geopolitically, life isn’t fair.

One reason is Britain’s exposure to the global energy market. While the shale oil and gas revolution re-established the US as an important energy producer, this country is an importer, vulnerable to price volatility. Oil and gas shocks inevitably permeate the entire economy. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer, will no doubt spend some of her Easter poring over progressively more alarming Treasury impact assessments. There is one ray of hope, however: Ms Reeves has begun to recognise the value locked up in Britain’s as yet untapped fossil fuel reserves in the North Sea.

When asked in an interview with the BBC whether she was happy with drilling in home waters, Ms Reeves replied: “I’m very happy that we are.” She went on: “North Sea oil and gas will play an important role in our energy mix for years to come, and we’re very lucky to have that resource.” This potentially puts her on a collision course with Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, who believes the path to salvation lies in expanding renewables and choking off North Sea production by refusing to grant new exploration licences. This, even as Britain continues to import gas by pipeline from Norway and, increasingly, in liquefied form (LNG) from the US and Qatar.

It is not about bringing prices down. that is a red herring. low grade media , bbc, sky are pandering to the general public by asking that question. it is about securing our own supplies when needed. Helping our taxes by providing an extra £10b pa, balance of payments and employment. there is a marginal improvement in climate change issues but again that is another red herrring. this govt are going to look pretty silly if they insist on petrol rationing. - mind you they look pretty silly anyway.

Quote from Upstream news at 19.00 this evening "Treasury and North Sea Operators engaged in intense schedule of metings with a view to end the EPL early" maybe, just mybe, common sense has returned.

Quote from Andy Prendergast, National Secretary of GMB, "i see a way forward for the Govt to scrap the EPL levy this year. i am hopeful it can be achieved." He should get together with Sharon Graham and start cracking heads.

Yes it is all a bit depressing. there is little that JOG can influence. maybe we are waiting for the Rosebank decision, supposedly due at the end of this month, but i suspect Milleband will go very slowly. meanwhile i have been in touch with Peter Kyle. he is just about the only one who claims to be dynamic and can get things done on the business side. lets see if he has influence in bring forward the 2030 tax rates. the pressure from Industry, Unions, Trump, Media is fanatstic but Starmer will have to over-rule Milleband.

As i see it we are waiting for NEO to confirm or not whether they are prepared to go forward with the Buchan project. Serica have broadly said yes and so has JOG. i suppose in the unlikely event NEO decline i imagine it is still possible for JOG to find another partner. Whilst the current North Sea players are depressed by UK govt negative attitude this does not really apply to the Buchan project , given its long lead time.

MP0818, thanks for enquiring. i haven't said much as imho this is all in the script. with the govt under pressure to balance the books and actually encourage growth all the petty schemes by ministers are going to be unravelled. i believe that when Starmer tried to sack Milliband , on refusal Starmer said that the alternative was to swallow the medicine that coming. almost certainly rosebank will be approved soon and Buchan will follow under the wire. when i last saw AB his last words to me were" this requires patience but we are getting there" a view i totally agree with

MP0818, yes AB mentioned that scope3 would have to be resubmitted. he said that was not too onerous and in fact there were new bits added that actually looked quite helpful ie job creation, benefits to UK tax. so he does not see any serious obstacles. but it does look like Buchan will have to wait until Jackdaw and Rosebank are processed.

Dick, may i join in with others urging you to stay. you knowledge of the industry is unsurpassed by those you post on the board. your financial analysis is miles ahead of anyone else. you ask what medals i have - none i am afraid to say. no A levels, no degree, no professional qualifications. my posts probably are boring and without value so we need you input to help us lesser mortals to understand what is going on. i also agree with everyone that we should get back to the issue - ie the future of JOG. the future looks promising.

JS, hardly an exciting day but generally the mood was more upbeat. there were only 5 shareholders there and there was nothing controversial. i confirm Dick's forecast that the next hurdle is the Treasury's revision or otherwise on the current EPL etc. the directors think there could be a favourable shifting of ground as the Laffer curve is kicking in. The GMB union are making a lot of noises behind the scenes.there are now many good scottish oil workers out of a job and the govt. is realising that is not going to go down well with the Labour MP's. Probably all will be revealed int the autumn budget. otherwise yes there is more attention from finance houses. so in summary generally good but as usual we all need patience.

JS, yes i am going

DU, while agreeing with your sentiments about the ineptitude of the labour government (and the Tory one for that matter) i don't agree that all blacks will be voting labour at the next election. my wife for one and indeed one of the JOG directors is african and i doubt she will. it is very likely both of them will read your comments.

polite message - tone it down a bit. thanks

I think there has been a horse trade. Milliwonk get boilers and sizewell B and reeves gets the green light for NS oil and gas development. Nobody sacked nobody loses face.

I think the reason why the reaction has been so positive is that NEO, through their owner, have been pretty limp wristed about pushing their case with UK Govt. in addition for the last 6 months it has been rumoured that NEO were for sale. Repsol have a reputation for being much more positive and adventurous. so the conclusion is that for JOG this new arrangement will lead to a much better partnership.

This decision should be with Millewonk. i wonder if Rachel will steal his thunder and annouce it on wednesday. then he is stuffed. i hope she does

Surety

confirm it was not me. i do believe that in the next three months greater clarity will come from govt on long term tax and scope3 issues. if one can it is worth hanging on as i am optimistic about a positive outcome.

CPH, i can confirm that AB is alive and well. i had lunch with him last week in the City. pleased to report he is very busy rotating between the Treasury , partners and potential opportunities. the scope 3 report has been completed and about to be delivered to millibrain and the Treasury. he says that there is nothing concrete to report on but if i may quote him he says there are many exciting opprtunities.

keep the faith!