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I am very happy that's been agreed
Mr B has finally had the courtesy to deliver an update . A big heavyweight , it’s got to be Ithaca . This will bounce back today , any guesses £1.80 - £2.00 a share .
Good news. I am however reminded of the long car journey as a child: "Are we nearly there yet?".
Well it may be happening.. very different. Success is certainly not guaranteed.
Let’s see if this rockets today.
Bought themselves another month. Clever idea to put the exclusivity in there - I think the very least was needed to placate shareholders. Interesting to see how the share price will move throughout April
A few apology posts being drafted this morning..
At last
.............if the cap fits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THjBJk8R2MY
I day dear Joggers why don’t we sack Benitz and the whole lot of his pathetic team . What value have they delivered . If I pull out with my holding the price will fall substantially. I feel like selling up they have delivered FA . Unless of course they deliver a RNS at 7am ( Highly unlikely !) I wonder how Dick and The other large holders feel . I am pretty p@@sed off with the bloody lot of them .
Indeed James.
Whatever is going on they have treated shareholders with contempt with their failure to communicate. That along with the failure to deliver shows a mixture of naïvety, arrogance and incompetence. Not good whichever way you look at it.
All this talk about tax policy is nonsense, nobody could've predicted current government madness therefore it stands to reason that no-one can predict the future nonsense which will happen when Buchan is producing and the libour party are in power. Other deals seem to be getting done so why can't jog get a deal sorted in the same climate? My view, for the little it's worth, is that the problem is bungling Benitz who has delusions of adequacy, as a friend of mine put it some time back. I am honestly not sure what he brings to the table? He's no oilman. He's clearly no dealmaker. His only CEO experience was a brief stint at daddy's firm until shareholders saw sense and booted him. As far as I can tell, he's rather dispensible and an easy 300k per year admin saving. The same goes for all these Ithica appointees who are costing ongoing precious, limited resources, and who have delivered sweet fa in their year and a half sucking on the Jog ***.
Well that was a day! Certainly not what I was expecting!
That said, I think dgdg1 has an interesting perspective on this.
I agree Frazer that nothing has changed since the announcement, but you can imagine the sentiment shifting since then from the producers. All of the producers play the same game - negative rhetoric, reducing capital, leaving UK shores in terms of investment deployment - all in the spirit of a floor being put in, etc etc. No producer is going to want to break from that when they think they have a chance of the government conceding on the floor. Ithaca this morning was more of the same, the Captain development is near the GBA - they hint but caution in equal measure. It might have been a different story if the floor had been announced today (and they knew in advance). I suspect it may well be introduced next week with other O&G activity as per the rest of the report.
So the question is : news tomorrow? Or wait until the floor next week and push out further.. with either silence tomorrow and a short delay com.. depends if they know something re: the communication being moved to next week re: the floor.
Jog clearly think they have something, or they would have flagged by now (You cant show an empty hand on the last day and the former Ithaca team inc Les Thomas arent naive enough to get caught in that trap). The NSTA also think they have something.. I'm fairly calm about all this
Re: other company share prices. It was always going to hit the largest non funded developments the hardest.. A producer (e.g. Harbour/Serica/Ithaca) have already taken the hit on their share prices, and Jogs price relates directly to capital investment required from the producers who are holding back in an attempt to strong arm the government into introducing a floor..
Sooner or later someone will blink.. either the government introduce the floor and the Jog deal goes through or they dont, and a producer caves and decided to use the incentive now and does a deal with Jog..
Are you really surprised it's hit Jog harder share price wise !?! In my view - sit tight.. Tomorrow or shortly after - a F/O or T/O is coming..
IMHO/DYOR
I'm not especially comparing with anyone. But you said the 15% fall isn't related to the soon to be missed deadline and is instead connected with the lack of EPL clarity in today's announcement from the government. If that is true, then surely Harbour, Ithica, etc. should also have fallen 10-20%, and yet they haven't. The reality is that the fall today is all about the lack of news within the timeline. I don't understand the obsession about precise details of Tory NS policy when it is blindingly obvious that the Tories will be no where near government by the time the first barrel from Buchan reaches market.
I agree the fundamentals are still there , the oil is still there and even Ed Milliband confirmed would still need oil for another 30 years . Let’s say labour win the next election maybe they would stop issuing new licences then that makes the licensed fields more valuable in my book
Frazerjohn, right, nothing has been added to the fiscal burden, but the point is that it's hard to agree terms when neither party knows what the final tax policy will be - as since we know there could be a loosening of policy then potentially farminees might offer better terms, but they can't do that until they know the final tax position, and similarly JOG doesn't know what terms are reasonable for it to accept, and it knows that it could be worth waiting for a better tax situation in which it could get a better deal - so it's not in shareholders' interests for them to conclude on whatever might be on offer now. It makes a lot of sense and is really not at all the fault of the company that the govt is dithering on finalising its tax policies.
Battery, to be honest I don't know much about other companies that are focused exclusively on the North Sea, I'm not a sector expert but I would imagine each company would have its own individual circumstances - which other companies are you comparing with?
Everyone entitled to their view dgdg1 which is the benefit of these discussion boards.
Personally, I'm not buying the fiscal part of it, WFT floors etc.
What has been added to the fiscal burden since 7 am on 29/11/2022?
They weren't afraid to go into print then.
Time for some explanation.
"Andrew Benitz, CEO of Jersey Oil & Gas, commented:
"We are pleased that the NSTA has agreed to extend the Second Term of the Verbier Licence in order to align it with the rest of our GBA asset base. Although multiple fiscal changes have slowed progress with closing out commercial farm-out discussions, we look forward to a successful conclusion if not by the end of the year then certainly in Q1 2023.""
Interesting, dgdg1 - if this fall is related to the windfall tax lack of news, perhaps you could point us in the direction of all the other NS focused firms which lost 15% today? Should be quite a long list, given the number of oilers with NS interests.
Yes, I think the fall in share price is not because we are near the supposed "deadline" of 31st March as promised by JOG - if so it should happen on Monday - why today more than yesterday? The fall is because no floor was announced for the WFT in the govt announcements. But today was billed as a "Green Day" (before it was renamed - according to the FT, because jokes were made about the name) and only happened because a court mandated the govt to clarify its green policies. So there is actually no logical reason for them to have announced changes to the EPL today. Indeed, they didn't refer at all to oil taxation, or certainly not in detail. Clearly they didn't see it as appropriate to announce all their energy security policies today including oil policies, as this not related to achieving net zero - otherwise they would have raved about how the investment allowance encourages investment in the North Sea. They just didn't talk about it at all as it wasn't relevant for today.
Indeed at https://www.agcc.co.uk/news-article/uk-government-airbrushes-out-north-sea-oil-and-gas-industry it says:
"But one industry insider suggests news relating to oil and gas has been deliberately pushed back to a later date. There is thought to have been fears their inclusion would give Shadow Secretary of State for Climate Change and Net Zero Ed Miliband a stick to beat ministers with. It is believed that the oil and gas measures are still happening, with an announcement possible next week."
Similarly, Ithaca announced toady "We remain committed to investing in the UK North Sea, however the impact of the revised Energy Profit Levy ("EPL") announced in November 2022, in particular the removal of the sunset clause, is constraining our ability, and that of our JV partners, to invest. With a reduction in borrowing capacity across the sector as a direct result of EPL, the ability of the oil and gas industry to unlock the benefits of investment programmes across the UKCS to provide critical domestic energy security and meet its Net Zero ambitions is under threat. We continue to constructively engage with the UK government in relation to the future fiscal policy in pursuit of the stability required to make these critical investment decisions." - note "We continue to constructively engage with the UK government" - so clearly change may well still be on the agenda.
So I do think all this negativity is out of place. What may be true is that the delay in finalising the policy may cause a further delay in finalsing the farmout, as farminees want to have finality on the tax position, and JOG may well announce as much. So it's just a case of more delay through no fault of the company, nothing to do with incompetence, so all such negativity is just silly.
Apologies Battery for my typo, please forgive me. AB owns 702,176 shares = heaps in my world.
"He owns over heaps of shares" Care to translate that into English?
Keir Starmer and members of his shadow cabinet launched Labour’s local election campaign today with a focus on the cost-of-living. As many councils are due to increase council tax by 5% on April 1, Starmer said he’d freeze rates this year if he were PM. And he’d pay for it through an increased windfall tax on energy firms.
At this rate there will be no WFT
Absolutely spot on.