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New here and invested recently. Just listened to the Roast, the future numbers sound amazing . Shame about a small time delay in a part affecting the price, but this temporary I think. GLA
Alanos - We were all new here once upon a time, bright eyed and bushy tailed, full of enthusiasm. The experience hasn't been good, with many obstacles seemingly recurring, management competence has to be questioned. It's a shame, when as you say, the raw numbers should be more fruitful for investors.
Currently they are getting $350/t for Chrome.... "At these prices, if they hold, Jubilee could be making ~$100/t profit margin on each tonne of it’s own ROM – which at 2.1Mt/yr production with ~40% of production not fixed margin could be in the region of ~$80m/yr."
It's a massive silver lining gotreal that's for sure- financing expansion and when both new modules are in play at the end of the year it will be churning out cash and no capex to soak up the cash flow.
Perfect companies dont exist (I am tempted to say like women but have not for the record) and if they did they would be priced out of our league as a result. So you have to weigh the good with the bad - Massive, massive massive enormous potential and relatively stable underlying cashflows allow us to remain solvent but a bit flaky. I dont like the flaky elements but overall there is no ay I am selling out at this price / this close to copper fruition (allegedly - lol).
I contacted WH Ireland about that quoted figure for chrome concentrate price and it's their own research rather than a figure from Jubilee. He even quoted the same website that I use as a source for information but that is currently US$303-310 / tonne. I think I'll stick with my own figures which have closely matched the ones Jubilee quote.
Initially, i was surprised to see the quarterly come so early, a pleasant surprise. Well done Neal. But my surprise soon turned to disappointment. Just when you think they're getting there, the kicker drops in. After a few harshly thought words, i actually started to look at the bigger picture and the message in the RNS. The feed is starting to arrive. Roan without the feed is useless. With the IRH deal and M coming on line later this year, they need feed now. With two new deals just signed and 3 on their way, feed should be arriving at a similar time to roan being ready. maybe the plan all along. It can be clearly seen Jubilee is making headway in the small mining sector under their own steam. The growth potential here is perhaps collectively bigger than many thought. The need for additional refining capacity will certainly arise sooner rather than later. My guess is Roan will be extended to double capacity as suggested circa 3 years ago and a new refinery as suggested at the same time will be purchased. There was suggestion of two new refineries with one dedicated to cobalt. But i am guessing Chambishi will solve both the cobalt and additional copper processing capacity. Clearly the potential for Jubilee to grow fast and organically in the small mining sector is there to be seen and soon tasted. But collectively all those small miners become a different animal. Hopefully news of more contracts will arrive on a steady basis. At the other end of the scale we have the IRH deal coming on line towards the end of this year and i would not be surprised to see more deals announced here, individually on a much larger scale. So after the disappointment of Roan initially, the reality and scale of what is about to happen is somewhat over whelming. Well done Leon & Team a few weeks is neither here nor there, especially if you get most of those small scale miners. The challenge is to get most of them.
Hi Mikie, i think that if it was reported that the IDF had accidentally nuked all our facilities and assets you would find a way to be positive. Bless you for that, long may your optimism give us hope!
cheers
frog
Was just thinking the same Frogkid - wish I lived in Mikie's world the glass is not half full- it's up to the top and overflowing. Lol.
On a short term here and now point - a few big sells and buys churning the shares - ship jumpers v bargain hunters. Today's dead cat managed it's little bounce to boot for all the cliche lovers out there.
Think of the compensation and potential loss of earnings claim Frog!!!! Lol. Always a silver lining. The really important message i got today Frog is they appear to be extremely successful in securing the feed. They have now secured 3 sites including M. With 3 more close. As soon as they get processing, new modules cant come quick enough. If they run out of processing capacity for cathode, the copper in solution market seems absolutely desperate for more copper mix! That will fund more refining capacity in short order. Fete and the wider macro is delivering for copper. We just need to get going now. Feed and Roan - hopefully May/ June we’re away.
Come on! By no stretch of the imagination could today's activity be described as a dead cat bounce. The feline is alive and purring.
Interesting that in The Roast Leon once again said we would be looking to increase refining capacity either by some partership or by a purchase. Something is being worked out as I type!
Thanks Mikie for keeping a smile on the board.
Hi Frogkid
Thanks for your last post.It gave me a laugh among st all the doom. I certainly believe being optimistic in life is the way to go. Optimism is a blessing in the world we live in especially staying in a country like South Africa where it is extremely difficult for a white Jew to remain optimistic
I often think Id like some of what Mikie takes !
Continuing the positive vibes, copper is up over US$9,700 / tonne at the moment, we just need to crack on and start producing more of it!
Seis
Platinum price has just become positive with the talk in South Africa is that platinum will go into deficit so another reason to be optimistic
You are welcome Jack. No that cannot be much fun. I dont suppose you can get your money out of SA. That was always the problem.
Brent is retreating too! Good news for inflation. Too much optimism around this afternoon. Must be contagious!!!!
Frog kid Sorry I Don't know your name but yes it is a problem.The rand has gone to pot. I think it is over the last 20 years the worst performing currency in the world (maybe the Turkish Lira has done worse.)That is another good reason to be positive about Jubilee as they earn dollars and not rands. To buy $ earning companies makes extra sense if you live here.
For Jonah:
dead cat bounce
[dead cat bounce]
noun
stock market
a temporary recovery in share prices after a substantial fall, caused by speculators buying in order to cover their positions:
9.2% fall in a minute followed by a 3.3% recovery of that loss. Arguable?
Yes. I’ll argue. The cat isn’t dead. The recovery isn’t temporary. The buying isn’t to cover positions.
15k$ per ton by 2026. What kind of a profit would that give us!
A lot!