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A lot!
Frustration - Roan delayed again but lets put it into context that assuming they hit the revised deadline its not a long time in the grand scheme of things.
Chrome - better than expected and additional Thutse module on track for August.
PGMs - lower grade was flagged and less of a concern at current prices.
Copper - obviously Roan not great but the expansion of the feedsources is good business.
Munkoyo - 4500T per year of copper is 50% up on previous estimates and on track for Sept-24.
Expansion of Sable mentioned.
IRH - detailed work on where to put the modules as you would expect to maximise early value and keep operating costs to a minimum.
Delays are obviously frustrating but the destination remains the same and the growth will come thick and fast.
ATB
Northern
Nelson, I think a lot of pricing is based on trends / fads. If you have AI anywhere in your marketing material then it seems to attract the money even if there is no credible plan to monetise it.
As interest rates have risen small caps have suffered more but it seems that some organisations use this sector theme rather than looking at individual stocks where it may have a much more limited impact.
My belief is when the market wakes up then this will move very quickly.
ATB
Northern
I was originally one for diversification and making sure I had some "safe" shares like a bank. Then the financial crisis hit and the banking shares got wiped out.
Over the years I have read a lot about investing strategies and settled on a hybrid - I look for fundamentals of the macro environment, company USP and operating environment. I also think the market misprices companies and sectors all the time.
So in terms of JLP I think the macro story is solid (decarbonisation - copper and cobalt for electrification and PGM's for Hydrogen).
USP is the process capabilities which appear to be differentiated in comparison with peers.
Operating environment is more tough but what gives me comfort is the low cost of production and importance of the employment JLP provides in the countries it operates in. I also think this will be addresses when ready to further expand geographically.
So whilst it isn't without risks it now represents circa 70% of my direct portfolio. This has been called into question at times but am I convinced by the strategy and path JLP are taking, notwithstanding the initial decisions in Zambia which set us back 18 months, then absolutely.
Like Lufc1111 I think the market has to wake up to the fundamentals of the business and the near term potential which is massive in terms of growth.
Only my opinions and I respect others who have different strategies as everyones circumstances differ!
ATB
Northern
Ard,
Chrome is a difficult one - Seis may be able to help here.
matthey.com/products-and-markets/pgms-and-circularity/pgm-management/ is good for PGM's
Copper I take from Trading Economics but update my files periodically with spot prices.
ATB
Northern
Platinum also had a decent day. Much to look forward to
I hope you are right - when that RNS drops it certainly will be a Happy Day!
Cheers Seisnav. An overdue decent day here and given copper prices it looks like there is a way to go!
Also very limited green boxes today. I would say I wonder why that is but fairly sure I know the answer!
ATB
Northern
Seisnav, that certainly makes sense and you can see why Chambishi is the preferred option - being in the middle of OB1, Mufulira and Ndola,
ATB
Northern
Jonah,
You are right in terms of Sable being filled very quickly with Roan in full swing and Monkoyo up and running. For me OB1 will need additional refining capacity but this could be Mopani but not aware of transport costs/logistics.
Chambishi looks to be in the crosshairs but would like to see a funding structure which leverages the balance sheet rather than equity. Could this be OB2 / OB3 and Chambishi going into the JV?
Good news is the cashflow with Roan at full swing will provide a lot of flexibility for JLP to make additional deals.
I also suspect they will utilise the third party PGM facility to process some of the excess material produced by the new chrome units to generate cash in the short term.
ATB
Northern
Jack,
If they execute it will be an exponential rise in the financials.
I was thinking why the IRH deal is referred to as OB1. My only thought was over burden 1 but the fact it is numbered would lead me to suspect there are a number in the pipeline.
I also re-listened to Leons interview last week and he makes an interesting observation that the IRH are looking at copper deposits across the globe. A fully funded JV in another territory with the support of IRH would make a lot of sense in terms of diversification and the lowering of organisation risk. Not for today as I think they have more than enough to be working on in Zambia but shows the potential for future expansions.
ATB
Northern
Nice to hear from you Billy, been a while. What’s your current thoughts regarding progress?
Northern
Mikie, I think there will be more Project M's. Most of the interviews have mentioned there are 10's of similar projects around Zambia and the employment opportunities will play well with the government (as well as being profitable for Jubilee).
Growth potential is massive and my one concern around funding has eased with the IRH confirmation. Once Roan is in full swing the rest should be self funded unless they go it alone and try and buy a large refining footprint.
Northern
Jonah, any amendments may come out in subsequent interviews but there maybe commerical restrictions on what they can say as well. As I say pure speculation on my part but they are in a much better negotiating position than when the original agreements were concluded.
Northern
Seis, interesting news regarding the chrome tolling agreements which have been extended. Pure speculation from my part but given the strong outlook and current pricing for chrome I would suggest that there has been negotiation about the tolling margin!
Northern
HD - My reading is the due diligence has been completed and satisfied. They are now in the legal stages of forming the JV, bank accounts, legal structures etc...
Plus JLP will get a cash boost from the initial 1.75m plus pre-formation costs which will be paid from the JV.
Northern
Blue,
May have mistimed that top up.
IRH exercising the JV is great news plus reaffirming timescales on other projects.
Well done to Leon and the team!
Northern
kalan,
the recent raise is not paying for roan:
• pay the initial payment of us$1.75 million, due under the agreement for the acquisition of the copper waste rock dump announced on 12 december 2023 detailed above and progress resource and process design (a total of c.us$4.5m).
• expand the sulphide recovery circuits at the company's sable refinery to accommodate increased sulphide concentrate production from newly acquired projects (c.us$5.7m).
• progress the project development phase of the mufulira **** project, with early-stage bulk trial and processing (c.us$2.5m).
• for general working capital purposes.
northern
Kalan, net cash from operating activities according to the 1H results was positive £2.6m (RNS 26.02)
They are investing cash in capital assets as part of the expansion programme but the ongoing operations generate positive cashflow, which will improve with more impact from Thutse in 2H and as you say when Roan is fully upgraded.
Not a resident defender of faith - just deal with information which is stated by the company.
Northern
Might be a reason why our SPV has been delayed