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Given the recent newsflow I wanted to have a look at the potential capacity and heres what I came up with:
Chrome
Existing - Inyoni, Windsor and Windsor 8 = 1.3m tpa
Recently installed Western Limb = 0.2m tpa plus option for additional 0.2m tpa
New potential Western Limb - 0.33m tpa
Potential Eastern Limb - 0.25m tpa
Which all in adds up to Leons 2.25m tpa - which compares well to Leons stated 2.1m
PGM's - much more difficult to deciper but if the processing of the chrome is in direct proportion to the PGM output then we should be looking at 70k ozs plus.
Copper
Roan capacity being expanded to over double its 780ktpa capacity - lets call it 1.6m
60% of capacity at over 2% ROM copper - 19.2k plus say 5k copper units for the remaining 40% - 24.2k tpa
Kitwe tailings Concentrator (600mt tailings already secured) - who knows but probably of a similar size?
Sable can do 12k tpa and "New Refinery" 40k copper and 5k cobalt.
Not going to guess on metals prices but its a pretty hefty production profile in the not too distant future.
My estimates only but would be good to hear others opinions.
ATB
Northern
Good interview -
I really liked the comment on the speed of deployment of the Northern strategy as I did have some concerns on this given previous delays. Plus the support of the Zambian government...
Roan - they can process material previously regarded as waste - weathered oxide reef. I wonder how much of this is lying around as they should be able to do a belting deal on the feedstock!
There also seems to have been an increase on the chrome production aspiration from 2mtpa to 2.1mtpa.
An updated company presentation would help Seis and others with their numbers.
ATB
Northern
Jonah,
On the transport point they were looking at a rail solution for that.
I thoroughly recommend the filter button. Comes in very handy!
ATB
Northern
Seis, absolutely as output increases the capital apportionment gets lower per unit as the depreciation is effectively a fixed cost.
Seis, the capitalisation costs should basically be the depreciation of the assets. Any costs associated with the development of the asset (manpower, plant and equipment etc..) will be capitalised then depreciated over the working life of the asset.
So if its 10m capital cost and an estimated useful life of 10 years the depreciation will be 1m a year.
It is important to note the capex doesn't hit the P&L but the depreciation will do.
ATB
Northern
Seis, good synopsis and all pretty much as signposted albeit I am a little disappointed with the copper forecast for this FY - but my guess is this a deliberately low estimate given previous forecasts.
When Roan is upgraded could Sable then process any stockpiled cobalt material given the current price is near the threshold Leon said was required for it to be suitable for processing? Could be the rabbit out of the hat for any downtime at Roan and the knock on impact for Sable processing...
ATB
Northern
Jonah, it would obviously be good to know who the partners are but often there are confidentiality clauses etc... which come into play. Often some of the details are hidden away in the accounts but will need to wait until November to see this years.
Financial year end nearly done so would expect an update on that in the coming weeks which should give us more detail on the new chrome operations as well as copper.
Northern
Dorf,
Apparently there was a conference call with some larger shareholders where this was mentioned (Coinbase on ADVFN). I have not heard or read anything directly.
If it is Glencore/Merafe then it looks like this could be a test on their smallest operation with a view to opening up the broader portfolio over time (if we are able to demonstrate the efficiencies).
Northern
Thanks Gotreal - interesting it is Glencore. Dorf might be able to provide some more details as I think I am right in thinking he was the main man at their Chrome JV partners Merafe.
Some very quick reading (which may be misinformed on my part so please take with a pinch of salt) into the JV it looks like it maybe Boshoek. If so it looks like it currently has capacity to produce 240k tpa. Many more processing locations under the JV (on both West and Eastern Limb) so could be room to expand if this one goes well!
ATB
Northern
SeisNav - the filter button is the perfect solution to the insane ramblers!
Good spot SeisNav - the cast of people speaking is impressive so just the sort of networking opportunity you would expect. The CEO of ZCCM is there as well.
I think metals prices will fluctuate but if the deep mining operations in SA are struggling with power then PGM's should recover, and strongly, especially given the promised stimulus in China.
Copper is key to decarbonising so will be strong moving forward.
Cobalt has been hit by a supply glut but again when this normalises there should be demand for "non tainted" (i.e. no child labour) cobalt.
Key as Dorf mentions is the communications. We were told they recognised that this needed improving and hopefully they will follow through on this!
ATB
Northern
All I see is green boxes - can't see what unsubstantiated drivel he is spouting
Just a thought - recently most news has been accompanied by a bit of media from Leon... nothing I can see as yet.
Will he wait until more developments are announced...
ATB
Northern
Unexpected bonus! Short payback period of approx 12 months. Shows how much potential there still is in SA in addition to Zambia.
Hopefully the first of many positive newsflow items over the next few months.
ATB
Northern
Dorf,
Your post prompted me - had a great trip to SA last week. Even drove up the Rustenburg belt (albeit very early in the morning) and saw a lot of the mining facilities, workers and mining trucks on route to Pilanesberg.
What I was surprised about was the massive piles of tailings dotted around JoBurg, some of which were being worked on by illegal mining operations.
Fascinating place and lovely people. Will definitely plan to return at some stage, and the weather is definitely better even though we kept on being told it is the winter! Not sure what they would have made of our northern climates!
ATB
Northern
Jack,
I would love to but we are only down for four days and I wouldn't want to risk the wrath of Mrs N who is busy arranging a safari and shopping trips!
I certainly appreciate the generous offer however!
ATB
Northern
Planning a quick trip to Joberg at the end of the month. Not sure Mrs Northern is up for a trip to Inyoni despite her being a shareholder... but she does like a nice meal out if anyone has any local knowledge?
ATB
Northern
Mikie, I agree with this - they are looking to step up to 150t/month from May with no impact on Copper production.
ATB
Northern