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Started: E_AL, 13 Jun 2024 13:35
Last post: bilboburgler, Today 13:13
Actually I would remove the inventories. What on earth are they doing with so much inventory. I assume it is mainly material for live contracts (in which case it should be balanced by invoiced staged orders) or it is "excess stock" built under the last MD who liked to build units to check they worked. If the later they need writing down and do not believe Dennis missed that trick when he took over.
Hence I'd not include them as an asset and certainly not in a valuation. Half complete goods have no value.
Is this deliberate misrepresentation or total ignorance that I've been reading on this board?
Green hydrogen projects work in conjunction with the production of renewable energy. That's what makes them GREEN.
They are not about creating energy directly from naturally occurring sources (wind, hydro, uranium, fossils, sun) but about converting electricity into hydrogen via the "electrolysis". The hydrogen being a fuel. And it's green because the electricity comes from those plants / turbines powered by the renewable sources above (wind, hydro, sun).
So the more renewable energy projects, the more we can have "green hydrogen" electrolysers.
For those who really need to know, why hydrogen instead of the electricity produced by those renewable plants / farms / turbines? Because hydrogen has been demonstrated to be a highly effective fuel, more so that pure electricity, particularly for applications involving motors and engines. But it's by-product being vapour, it's environmentally friendly.
And linking this thread with the "Barrister for the Prosecution" thread, that slide in the video showing total world electrolyser capacity versus orders is quite sobering! So I wouldn't want to place too much faith in the cited value of "Inventories".
The problem with including the company's present cash position in your valuation is that they're not anticipating being cash-flow positive until at least 2027. So how much of the cash will still be left by then? Better to remove the cash position from your calculation and do your analysis based on orders, deliveries, revenue and profits. The current market cap, shorts, and general market sentiment is betting that there isn't enough of the latter. Sadly not enough evidence to prove them wrong being demonstrated by the company at present.
Cash £230 million
Inventories £76 million
Total £306 million
Current MCap £296 million !!!
So, essentially, the world's largest electrolyser factory, if you don't count its impressive cash and inventories worth a staggering negative £10 million
Started: toneman, 16 Jun 2024 22:27
Last post: lejjb, Today 12:51
I realise that my last post was not clear: this time, I am not criticizing kontiki2 but the people mentioned by him (her?) and the other poster in this same thread. So while this all looks muddy, kontiki2's and my comments work hand in hand:
there is much renewable energy/electricity generation ready to be added to the grid, which means the perfect conditions for green hydrogen generation.
As per my earlier message, this demonstrates heavy disingenuity or complete ignorance of what green hydrogen generation is.
Green hydrogen NEEDS renewal energy projects. It does NOT compete with them, on the contrary.
Green hydrogen is about the more effective use of the electricity produced by renewal energy generation via electrolysis, as it's been shown that hydrogen is a more effective and reliable fuel than pure electricity, particularly for applications involving motors and engines.
Agreed!
Spain's renewable energy is already exceeding demand: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czkkgnp1d2xo
There is a huge backlog of renewable energy projects awaiting grid connection, both in UK and USA. The National Grid rights issue(S) to raise £60Bn should begin to address this. Meanwhile all the negativity about green hydrogen, including the claim that it is purely an O&G initiative, seems to have damaged projects to divert excess electrical power to hydrogen production on the supply side and limit potential uses, so simultaneously damaging the demand side of the equation.
New windfarm projects can be completed more speedily and with greater capacity than ever and floating wind farms will offer a huge uptick in overall capacity, triggering the potential for offshore green hydrogen production.
Meanwhile for balance read: https://www.respectmyplanet.org/publications/fuel-cells/michael-liebreichs-hydrogen-ladder-debunked
Anyone interested in hearing the other side of the argument (the opposition to ITM, Plug, NEL etc) might like to watch last week's "Energy Futures Lab 2024 Annual Lecture" (13 Jun '24). Michael Liebreich outlines his usual objections to green hydrogen. The one part I agree with him on is that the scattergun approach to what you would use green hydrogen for is counterproductive and leads to some fairly obvious non-starters thanks to cost of deployment and unfeasible quantities of renewable electricity they would demand. However there are some areas where I think he takes his negativity too far, for example when dismissing certain opportunities because they would take double of something we already do, or in one case 6 times as much renewable capacity as we've ever produced. Considering almost our entire renewable capacity to date (given how slow it started) has been achieved in about the last 5 years, then even 6-fold increase is only 30 years at the same rate. That's already not a very long time to drive fundamental change and given that the rate of installation of renewables is actually still increasing it means that a 6-fold increase is certainly less than another 30 years. To dismiss something simply because you can make it sound like 6-fold is a big increase just by your intonation during a presentation strikes me as a little disingenuous. Anyway make your own mind up here...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0Q9cuF8zKg
Now it’s starting to look cheap
Lowest i've seen it... I expect shorters and dumping to get price down
Still here, plenty of patience- near double bottom in yearly chart, better than expected TU, labour and name drop in article
Let them finish what they’re doing and the reversal will be sharp
All IMO
Does anyone know what might happen when the 23,000,000 shares being shorted have to close their positions 🤭
Just asking for a friend …..
There’s More 🙈🥳🥳🥳🥳:
🎊Yara's renewable hydrogen plant at Herøya, Norway is officially open!🎊
Today we celebrate a major milestone in our decarbonization journey as we're now producing renewable hydrogen and ammonia. We're also thrilled to share we've already delivered the first tonnes of fertilizers made from renewable ammonia produced at the plant to Lantmännen! 🎉
Yara's renewable hydrogen plant is the largest of its kind currently in operation in Europe, and here, hydrogen is produced with electrolysis of water and renewable energy, replacing natural gas as feedstock and annually cutting 41,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions from the site. ♻️
Last post: LuckyLaurie, 13 Jun 2024 14:11
This could change quickly with a large Government Contract through GB Energy ….. maybe August announcement.
Labour will want to hit the ground running …..
Given the linde, Snam, Shell share holding any bidder would be crazy. No one in the game can afford us and only the Saudis and one Australian would be interested.
BTW, the orders are not coming in fast to make us cash flow positive so the future is a bit further away than some of you think.
Need some positive news leaving themselves open to a takeover.
Started: E_AL, 13 Jun 2024 13:30
Last post: E_AL, 13 Jun 2024 13:30
Nice !
13:29:09 51.35 205,895 £105.73k
13:29:03 51.377 500,000 £256.89k
Started: Multiplier7, 13 Jun 2024 10:15
Last post: Multiplier7, 13 Jun 2024 10:15
Reset done.
Seems like orders are flowing through, which is all that is required, led by a great CEO, backed by a massive pile of cash.
Could easily be back to 70p+ in a few days.
Seems like a panic move with all the positivity coming out from the company, opportunity to load up right at the bottom.
Last post: ATrades, 13 Jun 2024 09:08
All about timing, looking to jump in, but think this goes lower.
Strongly disagree
Strongly agree, certainly a theme with the sells
Chart suggests reversal looks near and shorts desperately trying to keep it subdued, could be an almighty squeeze coming
All IMO
Started: dwe399, 12 Jun 2024 18:01
Last post: Mikey279, 12 Jun 2024 21:49
From lower end of cash guidance*
I’ve got infinite patience with this one so they’re not shaking me out
75% of mcap is cash and they’ve nearly found another years worth of opex from peer cash guidance range
No brainer with labour etc etc
We turn soon.
All IMO
Couldn't agree more Mikey!
Support seems to be coming in at this level, the shorters must be ready to press the buy button sooner rather than later.
Should be interesting from here.
Started: marker72, 12 Jun 2024 18:01
Last post: marker72, 12 Jun 2024 18:01
In total buys of 2 x 675K plus a 596K, 151K and 71K appeared after hours, a total of 2.2 million. Looks and feels like shorts are closing. Not at all surprised given the positive news coming from ITM.
Started: Multiplier7, 12 Jun 2024 16:45
Last post: Mikey279, 12 Jun 2024 17:31
Most irrational sp movement ever, update comes in better than expected and it drops 30% from update opening peak?
Gut says they’re done or nearly done
Now back to 3 digits
All IMO
Let me guess shorter closing up before ITM runs away! 🤔
70p last Thursday, 51p today, and they just had the Norway news, Japan meets.
IMO Sooner rather than later ITM 🚀
Nothing but an opportunity at close to 1 year lows.
DYOR
Started: bilboburgler, 11 Jun 2024 08:14
Last post: cureboy, 12 Jun 2024 14:47
The inauguration of Europes largest renewable hydrogen plant using ITM tech is newsworthy.
We don't want an RNS with every order in the same way we don't want radio silence. A middle ground might be an idea...
No but if they sell a sausage roll and a pasty ….. ?
What's all this wanting a RNS with every order nonsense??
Greggs don't put one out if they sell a sausage roll???
What's all this wanting a RNS with every order nonsense??
Greggs don't put one out if they sell a sausage roll???
Just take advantage of the low SPand grab the bargains with greedy hands, the shorters wont be here much longer and will finish their silly game very soon.
Started: E_AL, 10 Jun 2024 16:35
Last post: Multiplier7, 12 Jun 2024 12:40
The Yara website is interesting
https://www.yara.com/corporate-releases/yara-opens-renewable-hydrogen-plant-a-major-milestone/
No reason why this shouldn’t be back in the 80-90s over the next few weeks
All IMO
This is a buying opportunity brought about by the euro election results simple as that.
Yara's post on LinkedIn an hour ago:
Yara's renewable hydrogen plant at Herøya, Norway is officially open!🎊
Today we celebrate a major milestone in our decarbonization journey as we're now producing renewable hydrogen and ammonia. We're also thrilled to share we've already delivered the first tonnes of fertilizers made from renewable ammonia produced at the plant to Lantmännen! 🎉
Yara's renewable hydrogen plant is the largest of its kind currently in operation in Europe, and here, hydrogen is produced with electrolysis of water and renewable energy, replacing natural gas as feedstock and annually cutting 41,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions from the site. ♻️
We’re also working to enable the hydrogen economy by producing low-carbon ammonia with carbon capture & storage (CCS). Essential to reach the Paris Agreement, low-carbon ammonia and CCS is a critical step to decarbonize rapidly and profitably. While Yara is uniquely positioned to deliver decarbonized solutions quickly and at scale, the green transition will require investments, predictable framework conditions, funding, affordable renewable energy, and a market where demand and supply are developed simultaneously. 🤝
We're honored to have partners and customers who share our vision, as this transformation requires efforts across the full value chain. Furthermore, this milestone wouldn’t have been possible without our greatest strength - our people. A huge thank you to all who are helping us bring our mission to life! 👏
Together, we can grow a nature-positive food future! 💚
Started: DavidPM, 11 Jun 2024 07:44
Last post: Lucapizza, 11 Jun 2024 13:13
I’m in with my first purchase at 53.40. Looking at a medium term hold.
Good luck to all holders
Shorts squeezing out every last cent
I don’t often post here but the news yesterday emanating from Yara and the 25 MW electrolyser being used to produce ammonia for fertiliser is the tip of the iceberg for ITM. In retrospect, the shares got massively hyped 2/3 years ago when they hit £7. Unlike Nvidia which has seen sales and profits surge in a short timeframe leading to a massive return for shareholders over just 18 months, ITM will see massive growth but it will just take longer. However the business is now approaching an inflexion point and the turn around in the share price is likely to be dramatic aided by the still massive short positions held by some institutions.
Started: Adam07, 11 Jun 2024 07:30
Last post: Adam07, 11 Jun 2024 07:30
June 11, 2024
ITM Power to outperform guidance with revenue expected to triple.
ITM Power PLC on Thursday said the company expects to report improved financial results in its upcoming full-year earnings report.
The Sheffield, England-based company is a designer and manufacturer of electrolyser systems for green hydrogen production.
For the year ended April 30, revenue is expected to be in the range of GBP16.0 million to GBP16.5 million, within the guidance range of GBP10 million to GBP18 million, and ahead of GBP5.2 million reported the year prior.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation loss between GBP39.0 million and GBP44.0 million is anticipated, improving from guidance of GBP45 million to GBP50 million, and reducing year-on-year from a GBP94.2 million loss.
Net cash at year-end stood at GBP230 million, exceeding guidance of GBP200 million to GBP220 million.
Dennis Schulz, Chief Executive Officer, said:
During the year, we completed our 12-month plan, transforming ITM into a credible delivery organisation, and we have attained a positive operating rhythm of deploying products to our customers.
“We grew revenue more than threefold and halved our losses, and in line with our strategic priorities, we managed our cash carefully.”
https://hydrogen-central.com/itm-power-to-outperform-guidance-with-revenue-expected-to-triple/
Started: Adam07, 11 Jun 2024 07:28
Last post: Adam07, 11 Jun 2024 07:28
From LinkedIn: Linde Engineering and ITM are sharing a stand at ACHEMA 2024 from 10th to 14th June! Visit us in Hall 9.0 Stand D4.
Get up close to our real and market-leading TRIDENT stack, and talk to our experts about how our technology can help you decarbonise.
We have daily Tech Talks scheduled and would love to see you there!
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/itm-power_hydrogen-greentech-energy-activity-7204444370899501056-SBFD
Alpha
There will almost certainly have been staged payments on the contract. Normal practice would see the final stage being client acceptance testing after commissioning. On that basis pretty much all of the revenue will have been invoiced by this year end.
That assumes of course that the official plant opening and the plant running are the same event - but these are Norwegians so much less likelihood of messing around on that kind of stuff.
Which fees, the 10% with order, the completion or the installation?
I suspect you are over thinking it all.
Does anyone know if the fees for this have already been booked or if that is to come in next reporting period?
Https://x.com/itmpowerplc/status/1800159380459172321?s=46&t=lUUs8mZ3DzN0LONpU_7P4w
Link to the platform formerly known as twitter.
https://x.com/itmpowerplc/status/1800159380459172321?s=46&t=lUUs8mZ3DzN0LONpU_7P4w
Clearly this news hasn’t greatly affected SP today. It is big news albeit rather delayed. Huge potential here should Yara stick with ITM for further developments.
Today, the Norwegian Prime Minister, Mr Jonas Gahr Støre, inaugurated Yara International’s renewable hydrogen plant at Herøya Industrial Park, the largest of its kind currently in operation in Europe.
Utilising ITM’s state-of-the-art TRIDENT stack platform, the 24MW plant will provide enough green hydrogen to produce 20,500 tonnes of ammonia per year which can be converted to between 60,000 and 80,000 tonnes of green fertiliser.
Dennis Schulz, CEO of ITM, said: “It was an honour to attend the inauguration of the plant by the Prime Minister of Norway. Ammonia has long been used as a fertiliser but is typically produced from fossil fuels. Green ammonia offers significant potential, among other things, to decarbonise the agricultural sector. We are proud of our collaboration with Linde Engineering to deliver this groundbreaking project for Yara.”
hashtag#hydrogen hashtag#greentech hashtag#energy hashtag#electrolysis
I've just increased my holdings in ITM threefold. The stock is incredibly undervalued, especially considering last week's trading update. Currently, the company's market capitalisation is only around £100 higher than its cash reserves, neglecting any value for its research and development and other assets. This seems illogical. I anticipate the share price to rebound from this point.
Having one last crack at it...
Started: Adam07, 10 Jun 2024 13:39
Last post: Adam07, 10 Jun 2024 13:39
City Wire has just published this article:
'Buy' ITM, says Jefferies
ITM Power (ITM) enjoyed a strong end to the financial year and its better-than-expected cash position should support the shares, says Jefferies.
Analyst Constantin Hesse retained his buy' recommendation and target price of 80p on the energy storage and clean fuel company, which retreated 2.2% to 61p on Friday.
A full-year trading update pointed to 'a better-than-expected finish to the financial year', with the company focusing on 'costs and capex, following the implementation of a 12-month restructuring plan, which led to an even better cash position than the upgraded guidance at €230m.
The full-year results will be published in August and 'despite recent increases in the share price', Hesse said the 'better-than-expected cash position should be supportive of the stock.
https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-hsbc-mitie-itm-s-and-u-breedon/a2444039
Started: 0777brad, 7 Jun 2024 08:35
Last post: Licancabur, 7 Jun 2024 09:59
Let's hope we get a bit more information at the results in August because there's not much to go on meanwhile. The trebling of turnover is certainly positive but a clear prospectus regarding future profitability is sorely needed after 20 years of losses.
Just putting a little water in your bucket
We have been at other dawns before
I'd be happier with orders
EU awards €720m to green H2 projects in first European Hydrogen Bank auction
Labour to spend £15 Billions on green projects
All starting to look extremely promising for ITM
Not quite the close one hoped for. Lackluster commentary from Dennis has commented earlier.
Started: SuePud1, 6 Jun 2024 11:45
Last post: SuePud1, 6 Jun 2024 11:45
It is a mark of genius that ITM has so much money in the bank it could continue to lose money at the current rate for 5 years and not even blink an eyelid. Even better, it seems plenty of people would step up to the plate and give the company even more cash. https://x.com/Share_Talk/status/1798666993161449508
https://www.share-talk.com/rns-hotlist-with-zak-mir-vlrm-rgg-btc-narf-neo-epp-ondo-zphr-prd-itm/
No wonder the market is a little muted over this morning's 'Trading' update, as Dennis didn't mention anything at all about current trading. He could have at least restated all the things that haven't made it into RNS's through recent trading and given upbeat statements about how those are progressing and the future opportunities they bring.
For example:
Feb 1: First commercial upgrade sales - how's that sales channel developing?
Feb 12: New FEED for multi-hundred MW project - timescales? customer? progress?
Feb 27: Delegation from Brazil visited - anything exciting potential you're looking forward to dicussing soon?
Mar 26: Delivery to Japan - is it operational yet? Future orders potential?
Apr 16: Neptune deliveries to Germany - progress update?
Apr 26 (was already RNS): Collaboration with Hygen - Any timescales?
May 10: Neptune V 5MW release - Any favourable feedback yet? Orders?
Jun 3: Poseidon BDEP - How big an opportunity could this lead to?
Basically, anyone not specifically following X or Linkedin wouldn't necessarily even know about these as they're generally not RNS'd anymore. Today's trading update was an opportunity to be positive about current trading, not simply reafirming the finances that were arguably reafirmed not that long ago. The numbers are positive, yes, and that's something to be optimistic about, but generally the market expects a positive operational statement too.
Rates coming off .25
The ability for green hydrogen to help generate electricity means that ITM has a huge amount of commercial uses. There really is no limit on the potential revenue opportunity here, time for a re-rate …..
The European Central Bank will announce an interest rate cut today @1:15pm , the first cut since March 2016. Indices around the world are already reacting positivity to the news,also the announcement should spark a really in the stock market this afternoon.
Probably just trading in terms of sell on news mentality
Started: cureboy, 6 Jun 2024 09:32
Last post: cureboy, 6 Jun 2024 09:32
It's being held down, probably by shorters but could be abit of manipulation going on here. Why? I can see this as a potential takeover target whilst it's valued at just above cash.
Started: AATHOMOZ, 6 Jun 2024 09:07
Last post: Dibs61, 6 Jun 2024 09:24
The fall is somewhat baffling. Maybe there is some Co-ordinated activity to allow shorts to close their positions without causing the SP to spike? A labour government has to be positive for ITM. They’re even going to form an investment vehicle called GB Energy which would invest in companies such as ITM.
Maybe loss of confidence or patience
Of course they do! Doh!
What could be causing the SP easing off? Why would you sell?
Shorts don't sell, they buy back....
SP eased right back from opening at 69p
Could this be shorts selling off? I can’t see any other reason for the sheer volume of sell-offs in the last hour given nothing but positive news in RNS.
Started: marker72, 6 Jun 2024 07:12
Last post: marker72, 6 Jun 2024 07:12
'We grew revenue more than threefold and halved our losses, and in line with our strategic priorities, we managed our cash carefully'.