Member Info for Flintwall

GF77

Firstly and I realuse its difficult to write when you can't hear the way I am talking, but there is no condescension or patronisation intended when I write this. Firstly I can totally understand your annoyance at buying a chunk at 209 and the price falls to now 175.30. As with every holder on this board it doesn't feel great when the value of one's portfolio drops over a few days by this much. Believe me in April '25 when my portfolio was worth about 37% of my original investment I was pretty concerned! Being in hydrogen and in particular ITM, my portfolio has recovered a lot and briefly at the end of last week I broke even (though I am now in the red again). From your posts you are looking at a five times return. Assuming the number of shares you have at 95p and 209p are split equally (you of course will know precisely what your average is), your average would be 152. A multiplier of 5x this equates to 760p/s and a market cap of approx £5.25 billion. Assuming for instance you need to reach this in 3 years time and the market reflects a share price of 20 times revenue. For this ITM would need revenue of £262.5m. Or if based on 30 times revenue £175m both for the FY ending March 2029. If you believe this to be possible you could counter the frustration (which I totally get) with if "I zoom to a longer time frame and I believe in the prospects of the company, I'll just stick with it". Just think, the Rheinmetall RNS states several hundred up to 50MW sites. To get to our example £262.5m in revenue thats only about 6 Alpha sales in the year; and they need several hundred. I realise there is a lot of work and planning for the company to realise the start of these sites and one might need to stretch the target to say five years, but thusbis just one stream of income. Basically what I'm saying is don't beat yourself up about the 209 (easier said than done), but just manage your expectations by giving yourself a realistic time frame to make your 5 bagger. Personally and whilst I was really concerned in April 25 that I'd never be able to retire, the hydrogen market has reawoken and we are seeing real traction. Best regards.

Excellent post Bilbo...all these posts would have been complete gobbledegoop to me when I started investing 6 years ago (March 2020) but now I am beginning to be able to read between the lines as to what matters and what doesn't!! I still make mistakes( like paying for a big chunk of ITM at 144 p/s) on the day of zhe Rheinmetall RNS (it reached 145p/s); but I believe 145 p/s is well and truly in the rear view mirror (unless something major happens which we can't forsee)...I also have in mind your momentum share commentary. Best regards.

Thank you Birdsew and good point Wyndrum-I would just add that the Protium RNS is welcome news and consolidates and hopefully opens new ITM markets as the partnership develops. Happy days - best regards.

Sorry i meant £1.28b current market cap; not £2.8 b.

Good question Birdsew. My thoughts keep pointing to the (increased) estimated revenue for FY 2026 being between £40 and £43m. This equates to the current market cap (approx £2.8b) at about 30x revenue. As we know the company usually reports its accounts around 2nd week of August this year (for the 2026 FY). As we know from previous comments (some weeks ago) a valid poster remarked on bloom energy being valued at about 35x its 26 FY revenue of $2.1billion. If we applied a multiple of 35x revenue to the top end estimate we get a market CAP of £1.5 billion; which is almost exactly what we reached at the end of last week (£2.17 p/s). Personally I think the hard cold facts major investors will look at the bottom line and as it stands I can see this hovering between the £1.80 and £2.17 mark for a while. As we approach the date (TBC) of the 26 FY financial results I can see the share being around the £2.17 mark again. Naturally this is only my thoughts currently, but hope you think there is some reasonable methodology here..best regards.

Https://muckrack.com/media-outlet/startuprise-1

Might have been better if she had been called that 😅...she says she is a journalist for startuprise EU. Apologies but a bit of light amusement on a Monday eve.

I am sure she meant GBX not GBP!!

Https://startuprise.co.uk/itm-power-share-price/

This stock is due to reach 80p by 2030 according to this "expert's" analysis on 3rd April 2025. Perhaps she meant to put a "0" at the end of each of her predictions. 😃 ...all the best...

I certainly don't know all the technicals, but my gut is telling me we are being slightly undervalued. My sense is fair value sits somehwere around the 180-185 p/s. Please note this is not a prediction ( as like Digitalis I don't like to predict), but in terms of value, it feels a little light currently. All the best.

Thanks @GertyN. But surely some of the rise must be attributable as what in development terms would be called "hope" value due to the NATO deal? i.e. whist revenue hasn't been realised yet, there is (v.considerable) value in the "hope" of it being realised in due course. All the best.

With the collaboration with Rheinmetall, whilst there is a large margin in the RNS of "several hundred" up to 50MW plants each, and various figures have been banded around of £5 billion in revenue over X years (the timeline for the project), surely anyone can see unless we hit an iceberg, this high tech ship which can spot an iceberg a thousand miles away has definitely sailed from the recent average 12 month forecasts of 94p. As we know Jefferies has recently rerated to 200 p and I would think more will follow in the next few weeks/couple of months. Personally I think Jefferies will prove to be considerably behind the kerb. Using a v.conservative capitailsation of 10 x revenue (it was reported recently by one member Bloom was running at 35x revenue) surely a minimum forecast revenue of £100m can be included in to the value of the company immediately and therefore adding £1 billion to the market CAP! This is on top of the market cap prior to the Rheinmetall RNS! Whilst there may be a bit of wavering around these past couple of trading days, personally I can not see this going backwards at all, but will keep climbing for the foreseeable (with the odd down day). Any further announcements are likely to accelerate the climb. All the best.

@IKFA many thanks and noted. All the best.

@Eastwood. I've given this a bit more thought reagrading IKFA's 0.67 p increase /100000 shares closed. If all IKFA's average of his 4 calculation days were made after the govt had already bought their 71m shares then we can expect our calculations on share price to be approximately correct. If however the govts purchase took place since IKFAs calculations this would presumably provide an even greater squeeze on share supply and therefore further upward pressure when the shorts try and close? All the best.

Good point Eastwood as that firmly removes millions off the table!!

Whoever's increasing the share price this afternoon. Thank you. Getting close to my 190 p/s break even.

Note I won't be selling though (as have great belief in this company /macro changes in the fortunes of the Hydrogen industry which is now firmly in play from what I read and from what you good people put out ). Best.

Next Friday if we hit 190 p/s I will be back in the black on my investments (not accounting for inflation which I will have add on additionally) after about 4.5 years of being in the red (and massively so). Definitely be having a crunchie with my coffee! 😀

Sorry IKFA. My post crossed again. But totally understand where you are coming from and makes complete sense to me. Many thanks. Best

Great information New KOTB. That is an additional 11,764,800 shares to close based on 688M shares in issue. Adding these to the Qube, Helikon, Voleon sorted shares of 20,869 907 one arrives at a total 32,634,707 shorted shares. Using IKFA's 0.67 p for every 100000 short shares closed adds 218.65 p to the share price making the share price 389.85 p/s. However my query still stands (re the 0.67/100000 closed 😉). Best

Sorry Cestrian - my reply to IKFA crossed with yours, and I am more understanding though I would still love to know how the 0.67 p/s for 100000 closed is calculated. Best. 😀

Hi IKFA - clearly your calculation of using 0.67p/s for every 100,000 shorted shares being closed based on 20 million shares would add 134 p to the share price. Clearly there is a massive difference in our methodolgy and therefore what closing all shorts would mean to the share price (me about 176.4 p/s based on a 171.20 p/s current share price; and you 305.20 p/s based on the same current share price). Clearly I far prefer your figure to mine 😉, but can you explain how you calculated the 0.67 p/s for every 100000 shares closed. I can then hopefully dispel my methodology as being incorrect!