Member Info for Digitalis

Ha, a pub with no numbers on tables and no app for ordering (preferably no phone signal)

@TheT - also to conclude, I suspect in reality your and my views are not so different. The key is storage - Hydrogen in offshore empty wells, onshore salt caverns or elsewhere and Hydrogen capable Generating plants (or Grid Gas blend on synth-CH4) and in my view (Bilbo disagree) transportation - I am waiting for a reliable H2 refuelling network for my next car, I hope, and H2 heating rather than heat-pumps at 4x the cost of Gas boilers to install and 4x the cost to run because of the Gas/Electricity price differential (assuming no insulation losses etc in older homes)

Always happy to discuss over beverage of choice.

@TheT - I have been in the Energy Industry 20+ years and deeply involved in some of these designs/debates - not going to go into too much detail here but on Wind costs, curtailment and constraints I recommend Ofgem's enforcement action published here as a point of information on how CfD works.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/compliance-beatrice-offshore-windfarm-limited-tclc

"...holds an Investment Contract (an early form of the Contract for Difference (CfD)), guaranteeing it a fixed level of income for the power that it generates. Where wholesale power prices are below the relevant “strike price” and intermittent CfD units like Beatrice receive instructions from the ESO to reduce their output, the generator loses the subsidy top up that it would otherwise have received under its CfD. Typically generators seek to pass this additional cost of being curtailed through to the ESO via the bid prices that they submit in the BM, to ensure that they are not left worse off as a result of having a bid accepted.

Conversely, where CfD units have a bid accepted and wholesale power prices are above the strike price, generators continue to receive income for the power that they would have produced if they had not been curtailed, but no longer have to make a repayment under the CfD scheme. This became an increasingly common occurrence in the second half of 2021 and across 2022, as wholesale prices reached historic highs. Where such avoided repayments are not factored into bids, this will result in the generator receiving an additional benefit from being curtailed."

@TheT - always so difficult to get across everything in short snippets - I agree the policy of moving to mass electrification is much older than the current Government - RO subsidies and Feed-in-Tariffs in fact go back to the the Blair/Brown Governments, where incidentally Miliband was prominent, FIT was attempted to be rebalanced from the grotesque over-generous subsidy but still blew the original budgeted cost envelope - I haven't said use more gas - I've said relying on building renewables and then either constraining it off (uses more gas) or building pylons/bootstraps (lots of concrete and landscape damage) is bad for the environment - better to build the renewables and use it to produce Hydrogen (what we are invested in) and circumvent the constraints with transported H2 or Synth-CH4 to balance the Grid and not require mass retro-fit. If you run the numbers (as I did many, many, many posts ago) to move the entire country to EV/HeatPump domestically would require at a minimum, a tripling of Electricity consumption or more - where's the generation coming from for that and how is the Transmission going to cope not to mention the need to upgrade most houses to 3-phase supply at a distribution level - that is an awful lot of copper (environmentally bad).

@seadoc2 I'll reply to your other post here not on the other thread (title), 110 might be a bit optimistic now, it already hit 115, I got back in when I posted my limit order being taken at 119 and filled up on the bounce after at 124 (I had lower limit orders but cancelled them). But in any case, good luck to you.

Not sure scam - was quite obvious it was over-hyped - I was saying it before the issue date. Already touched below original offer price now, someone(s) have made a lot of money out of it already and someone(s) have lost a bucketload.

FFT - it is a logical fallacy to link two statements together and assume the second is correct because the first is.

The climate is extraordinary - agreed.

Current policy to promote HeatPumps/EVs (aka electrify everything) and cripple industry with high costs both of subsidies for renewables (CfD) and transmission infrastructure build-out (TNUoS) will be good for the environment - not agreed.

Electrify everything leads to more fossil fuel use (bad) and at the same time inflates costs as the transmission infrastructure isn't in place leading to all the subsidised renewables being constrained off (not generating) and the capacity being delivered by guess what? Gas (fossil fuels). Ed needs to look at the facts of delivery not the ideology - if the same amount of subsidy was being used to build out Green H2 production instead of CCUS, we would see lower transmission build, lower cost to industry increased productivity and a better environment.

I suspect you will make quite a bit on the SPCX short - I think the next 6 months for ITM should see a swathe of announcements, my Wild Blueberry doing fine shame on the Medlars, need watering.

Seadoc2 - I think my views on shorting are well understood - but on this occasion I can see the appeal. Notwithstanding that, what price did you open your short at?

Reckon it will be below IPO price by end of day today - triumph of hype over substance - but CursorAI acquired for no cash outlay - those shares are gunna hit the market fast when it completes to at least get some cash out of the deal then SPCX goes below $100 - can't believe anyone bought it at $225.

Why?

Most of ITM's projects to date and the future expected major announcements are outside the UK - what difference will it make if Ed stays at DESNZ or moves to the Treasury? Don't get me wrong his policies on energy are disastrous for domestic customers and UK industry in general but what's that got to do specifically on ITM's prospects?

Very much a sit on hands day for investors - gamblers can try and time in/out/in/out if they want, good luck with that. There's Gov't news due on the grant and the Chronos line FID (not immediately additive but sets sentiment and provides the opportunity for substantial growth), the APAC FID must be getting closer as is the 30MW stablegrid one, HAR2 invites to offer after the completed cost due diligence imminent, Uniper/Protium FIDs due by end of year or early next year at latest - and RWE cap reservation drawdown, the continue drawdown on the 500MW cap reservation, Hydropulse opportunities with Protium/HAR2 - not to mention in Germany. Just needs patience, try and make a quick buck if wanted but easy to end up on the wrongside of the announcement that sends this back to £2 and above.

This is interesting -

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-mexico-partnership-on-climate-energy-and-nature/uk-mexico-memorandum-of-understanding

"Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of the United Mexican States and The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero of the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on climate, energy and nature collaboration.

...

2. Sustainable Energy and Infrastructure

a. Promote offshore wind, low carbon hydrogen, electric vehicles, energy storage, and resilient and diverse clean energy supply chains with high national content by leveraging UK expertise and fostering national innovation and technological development, while facilitating regulatory, financial, and commercial engagement."

And to clarify I mean "buying the rumour" as in, there's no specific rumour other than the expectation of the Grant announcement - (I should get it checked)

I suspect it is age and I should get it looked at, but the last few days action suggests people are expecting news and are buying the rumour...I have a feeling in my water that something might arrive tomorrow morning - fingers crossed (I should probably get it checked)

@vamosbien - that is an excellent bit of research, thank you. I'd been checking the DESNZ website for any updates (none) so it is good to know that the HAR2 cost due diligence stage has been completed and they are looking to issue Invite to Offer stage asap. (Still late)

Hadn't thought to check Parliamentary questions.

@Bilbo, posting Hydrogen related news? Whatever next?

No change there then - in a green box for a reason

Apparently Pixie Balls in the frame too

@katstrangler - nothing to do with you being a new poster (you aren't) or me being owner of this share (lots of shares are owned I'm a speck of dust compared to the big holders) everything to do with it being a ramping statement as you are ramping - nothing wrong with that if it floats your boat - but you are (and is why you used to have a lovely green box and might do again) - I see no reason for the Grant confirmation to give anything more than a short-term boost to the share price when announced if it does anything, it is already priced in - it is the FIDs that are required now. Gov't policy hasn't significantly changed beyond what was indicated by the buy-in by GB Energy - Burnham won't have any impact on that - HAR2 announcements are still late, Grant confirmation is inexplicably delayed following CMA review on subsidy rules.