RE: Buy??2 May 2026 18:56
Hmm @wyndrum "alternatives are being put in place" - yes Hydrogen electrolysers as part of the Military-Industrial-Complex of Europe being mobilised.
Yes, only 20% of global oil comes through the Strait - so richer nations will likely be able to pay the additional costs to procure supply - but less developed nations won't be able to compete (and yet they produce a lot of global food). However, being able to pay the price won't matter when the physical stocks are depleted.
33% of fertiliser comes through the Strait - so richer nations will likely be able to pay the additional costs to procure supply - but less developed nations won't be able to compete (and yet they produce a lot of global food). However, being able to pay the price won't matter when the physical stocks are depleted and not only that, the fertiliser is needed now to produce the crops we need to eat in 4-6 months time.
BoE has accepted a "worse case" scenario of 6.6% inflation in the UK - BoE never gives accurate forecasts intentionally to try and change the outcome, so it is reasonable to infer that is actually the best case scenario - realistic scenario is 1970s-like secondary inflation spike of around 10% or more.
11-14million people are below 60% of annual median income in UK - so while you and I and others here may be insulated from the bulk of the inflation spike that is already baked in - they aren't.
The world will keep on turning but life for the people in it is going to be impacted