The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Arch- well put. In addition to the financing update, think shareholders keen to see collection ratios still good and understand levels being loaned. If this is positive would expect to see a significant rise above 100p as even at those levels would be very undervalued.
I saw the rise back up as just a partial correction of the over-reaction we’ve seen to the going concern risk.
Little over a month ago we were at over 70p, so a rise from the mid 40s to mid 50s doesn’t strike me as very meaningful in its own right. What we need is for confirmation they’ve sorted the bond refinance and then we should see a large recovery and hopefully return of momentum back towards £1 again. Fingers crossed.
Looks like a little bit of a shake today but there's resistance at 52 level. There's been some speculation elsewhere of a potential update before th1 15th October which hasn't been commented either way by IR.
Dunno I read that rise as a belief that something re bond was afoot. Again probably stretching the evidence to fit my own wishful thinking. I read the company RNS again over the weekend and thought it’s in a strong position considering pandemic effects on collections and feel it’s crash was more due to the cities dislike of the financial model as a whole and its longevity due to legislative changes but it’s markets particularly Mexico should continue to be profitable/grow.
Strange thing for the sp to rise then nearly 10p in advance of a trading statement only scheduled to come at end of month?
I think SP has been battered so if an October RNS contains positive update on refinancing/hopefully announcing it’s been done. And as long as collections are still high could see a short term spike back to 73-77p? Long term I feel it’s a slow recovery to the £1 mark. Pray no more ‘going concern’ statements too haha. Also hard to stay objective as obviously hoping it recovers like this for my own investment. Everyone else’s thoughts?
Should head back towards NAV - 150p? - if it coincides with a general market rotation to cyclicals/financials should be a strong few months (all fingers crossed)
What do peeps think is this is the potential for the SP if the bond is successfully refinanced or simply if the covenants are amended? Would it necessitate a revision to Peel Hunts and Shore Capital's broker rating?
Someone knows something about the bond refinancing hopefully? Decent rise today too
Those 2 huge buys is the reason for the rise. Someone is confident
It is very surprising given there is no scheduled announcement for a few weeks. That said there was a suggestion via wheeliedealer and conkers3 (the latter is a holder) on twitter that there may potentially be an announcement next week. That said I doubt that would be the reason for tick up in just one day. With shorts closed and bond prices stable I have been adding sub-50.
Up over 13% in a day...! Have I missed an announcement? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining, just surprised!
Share price has held up pretty well despite the realisation that trading update at end of October and general market skittishness.
The half yearly report said the following
"Our covenants are tested on a 12-month look-back basis. Although we passed all our covenants at the 30 June 2020 test date, the full effect of Covid-19 is likely to temporarily affect our covenant tests in the short term. Therefore we have commenced discussions with our banks on appropriate covenant amendments and will also take appropriate measures in relation to our outstanding bonds in due course."
...However separately it said that "they are actively preparing for the refinancing of this [April] bond in 2020."
So make it of what you will. Cash and headroom on undrawn debt facilities at 31 August 2020 was £326 million from £213 million in June.
Last 3 weeks have been pretty tough for shareholders to say the least and so I had asked confirmation last week given that the SP had fallen nearly 50% since the Half Year results whether they were still planning to provide monthly trading updates to reassure the market. They said they didn't see a need and that this would be provided at the end of October. Just the way that it was said seemed pretty confident but then I'm now all in so perhaps skewed.
Do you think it might be news reg. refinancing ? Or may be they managed to change covenants with banks?
Spoke to IR last week. The monthly update for September is to be rolled into the Q3 trading update at the end of the October. So no scheduled update news at the end of October hence thinking we get something else. Given that collections were 96% efficiency in August, there's no reason to doubt the trend will not continue till then.
Monthly update due end of week
I think they’ve only ever said they are targeting end of year for refinancing. May do it before Oct 31 but that’s date is irrelevant.
Key thing among all articles is the risk of refinancing. The other issue cited is regulatory reform but this is not the short term issue that is depressing the sp. It comes down to whether you believe there will be a refinancing deal before the Oct 31 Q3 trading update or not. What is strange is that despite the sp share fall there has been no comment by the Company to reassure the market as earlier in the year, which can be a good thing or bad thing.
Covered by conkers and wheelie dealer on twitter podcast. Coverage starts at 1:07 but main interesting part starts at 1:18
https://soundcloud.com/user-479955511/conkers3-wheeliedealer-32-micropayments-loop-dplm-dddd-song-wtb-fpo-biln-aa-call-ipf
They have had some bad press recently.
https://www.google.com/search?q=international+personal+finance&source=lmns&tbm=nws&bih=800&biw=1280&client=tablet-android-lenovo&prmd=nmiv&hl=en-GB&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj10_7HuYbsAhWn34UKHS3WD_wQ_AUoAXoECAAQBA
Ha you’re not the only one thinking that.
The market seems to be pricing in a huge discount for the risk they won’t be able to refinance. Common sense tells me this really won’t be a problem, it’s little more than a formality, but the market doesn’t seem to be seeing it that way.
If I wasn’t already heavily invested I’d be piling in here. The risk/reward ratio makes the current price look ridiculously good value IMO (unless I’ve missed something the rest of the market is seeing).
The other important, relevant point for me is lockdown doesn’t include economic aspects like before so we shouldn’t see a reduction In business or collection like before. If the upward trend in performance has continued then we should be fine! Gla
Yes it is the same ISIN (XS1054714248) surprised that one says 90 and another says 89.
My point though was that the current sp weakness as akin to when the share price was back in June when the price of the bond was trading between the 71 to 78 range. Think if they keep to their past practice of update Investors monthly you should see an update in the next week or so. Aside from that the Q3 trading update should come in by 31st October where hopefully all this mess will be cleaned up.
I believe this is the up to date link - current date trading at 89: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/47AV/international-personal-finance-plc/company-page
This is the link I used
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/bond/xs1054714248-international-personal-finance-plc-5-75-14-21