Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Chanel3, 9 - 4,3 for tommorrow but this should be fundamentally valued as per now around 20p
8T Boe with costs 10USd gives 43x8000= 344t usd net cash/day = 126M usd net cash /y. If dyvi =50% of annual net profit it will be 60M USd.
Lets assume DY=8%, valuation would be 750m usd or 0.65 USd per share i. E. 48p. TEN TIMES MORE THAN CURRENT SP
I think there is something weird in MM behaviour here ar AIM whilst in Warsaw it seems that the market mirrorrs true emotions and facts on the market. If you abandon normal chart and replace it with Sen_mv chart than you will see the plain logic: The value of the enterprise came back to where it was few years before i. E. circa 200M GBP. Which is convincing to me as the Company invested haevily and even though some significant money was burnt out to nothing the end result for now is far better than it was 3-5 years before and what is more the prospets are as good as never before : they have got a massive Oil field, technology will multiple the profits( pumps), Romania is promising and adds to it but undervaluation is obvious if you analyze what is up in Tunisia. So to speak 20p should be within a very sort time. And if you look to the portfolio of nebees big fihes in this company, well... The background for takeove by one of the bigger player in the whole branch is very likely. By what price? My guess is : far better than merely 20p
I think there is something weird in MM behaviour here ar AIM whilst in Warsaw it seems that the market mirrorrs true emotions and facts on the market. If you abandon normal chart and replace it with Sen_mv chart than you will see the plain logic: The value of the enterprise came back to where it was few years before i. E. circa 200M GBP. Which is convincing to me as the Company invested haevily and even though some significant money was burnt out to nothing the end result for now is far better than it was 3-5 years before and what is more the prospets are as Good as never before : they have got a massive Oil field, technology will multiple the profits( pumps), Romania is promising and adds to it but under valuation is obsious if you analyze what is up in Tunisia. So to speak 20p should be within a very sort time. And if you look to the portfolio of nebees big fihes in this company, well... The background for takeove by one of the bigger player in the whole branch is very likely. By what price? My guess is : far better than merely 20p
No debt due to new shares. New SP was 2p but taking into account all the debt the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, EBRD actually converted the debt worth ca 12p/new share. Gas fields in Romania are profitable plus potential takeover for any European country valuating independence from the outside sources ( Russia ! - why not to think about Polish Gas And Oil (WSE: PGN ) - they invest wherever possible ); But the clue lies in Tunisia - 380M of proven Oils , the main field currently used in 1%(!!!) of its resources, conservative calculation 15% of 380M oil shows rather conservative valuation i.e. 2500 million USD of gross income , if you add that the production costs are < 10 USD./BOE the net profit in long term would be in millions of GBP.
Video presentation ( directors talks ) plus official comments from Dec- they were declaring 7-8 T Boe/d if pumps are in action. CEO was even laughing that he never saw an oil field with no pumps. My guess that the results are better than expected. If everything is OK - SENX will be a perfect candidate for a bigger player like China Oil etc
Exxon Mobile mkt capitalisation 200B USD, Daily production 4,73MBoe/d.
AT SENX there will be 7-8 TBoe/d with pumps working in Tunisia.
AT. Serinus they claim to have far lower costs/barrell i. E 9vs.14-19 at exxon
Comparing by Daily production serinus should cost 8T/4,73M of exxon i. E. 300M USD but adding lowej costs of production it could be upgraded by 50% So 450-500M USD
20-30p looks neutral fair valuation
I think the business is doing quite well but it is torpedoued by various changes regarding rules for parabanki, especially in Poland. Still thera are 3 main reasons for optimistic scenario
1. Smaller parabanki will suffer more than IPF - > more Space for bigger player like IPF
2. Large number of bank clients will not sustain bank requirements and swap banks for parabanks like ipf
3. Mexico..A big unknown. It may be the turning point with upscaling to previously unknown levels of profitability but if not succesful it would damp the price for a long time
Overall there are hudge chances for strong longterm upward trend and minimal chances for stagnation. Negative scenario like allmost impossible.
Beware what they did to falks in Warsaw. This mega new shares are being issued after years of devastating sp squeeze and at a low price and with the violation of current shareowners, actually the shereholders were robed of the sp value by massive dilution. Even though the theft is obsious nobody noticed it and take this for granted, this is simply difficult to understand. This means that the brand new shareowners cuold be easily robbed in the same way